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Uzbekistan – Colombia1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Uzbekistan
1.34
Total xG
2.67
Colombia
1.34
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Uzbekistan | Colombia |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.26 | +1.26 |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.83 | |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.60 | |
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | +0.41 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.25 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 54 vs 13, 41 places gap) | −0.24 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 13 vs 54, 41 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical model predicts a very balanced match with a 35% probability for a home win or an away win each
- Colombia shows a strong offensive performance with an average of 5.8 shots on target in the last 5 games
- Uzbekistan's goal threat is critically assessed according to the data: only 0% of the seasonal goal production is contributed by currently available players
Risks
- Uzbekistan averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Limited data available for head-to-head matches
All probabilities
Result
Uzbekistan35%
Draw29%
Colombia35%
Double chance
Uzbekistan or draw65%
Colombia or draw65%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Colombia: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- Colombia: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Colombia: 44% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 16)
- Colombia with Luis Suárez: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Uzbekistan with Jamshid Iskanderov: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (4 of 7 games)
Lineups
Uzbekistan 3-4-2-1 · Colombia 4-3-3
Uzbekistan
- 1 U. Yusupov
- 2 A. Khusanov
- 18 A. Kakhramonjon
- 5 R. Ashurmatov
- 24 B. Karimov
- 6 A. Mozgovoy
- 7 O. Shukurov
- 13 S. Nasrullayev
- 22 A. Fayzullayev
- 11 O. Urunov
- 14 E. Shomurodov
Colombia
- 12 C. Vargas Gil
- 2 D. Muñoz Mejía
- 23 D. Sánchez Mina
- 3 J. Lucumí Bonilla
- 17 J. Mojica Palacio
- 14 G. Puerta Molano
- 16 J. Lerma Solís
- 11 J. Arias Andrade
- 10 J. Rodríguez Rubio
- 25 L. Suárez Charris
- 7 L. Díaz Marulanda
Substitutes
- 23 S. Esanov
- 8 J. Iskanderov
- 19 A. Ganiev
- 25 A. Ulmasaliev
- 26 J. O'rozov
- 10 R. Jiyanov
- 17 D. Khamdamov
- 15 U. Eshmuradov
- 12 A. Nematov
- 3 K. Alidjanov
- 4 F. Sayfiyev
- 21 I. Sergeev
- 16 B. Ergashev
- 9 O. Khamrobekov
- 20 A. Amonov
- 22 D. Machado Mena
- 19 J. Hernández Suárez
- 6 R. Rios
- 13 Y. Mina González
- 15 J. Portilla Orozco
- 26 A. Gomez
- 18 W. Ditta Pérez
- 21 J. Campaz
- 20 J. Quintero Paniagua
- 8 J. Carrascal Guardo
- 4 S. Arias Naranjo
- 5 K. Castaño Gil
- 9 J. Córdoba Copete
- 1 D. Ospina Ramírez
- 24 Á. Montero Perales
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