World Cup

Uzbekistan - Colombia

06/18/2026, 02:00 AM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Uzbekistan
1.3
Total xG
2.7
Colombia
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
UZBCOL

Uzbekistan

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.60
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.25
Standings disadvantage (pos 54 vs 13, 41 places gap)
-0.24
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.07
Full strength squad available

Colombia

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.83
Attack strength (1.23x league average)
+0.41
Standings advantage (pos 13 vs 54, 41 places gap)
+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.04

League

High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match)
+1.26
+1.26
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Colombia: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Colombia: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Colombia: 44% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 16)

  • 4
    Colombia with Luis SuĂĄrez: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Uzbekistan with Jamshid Iskanderov: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (4 of 7 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

29%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical model predicts a very balanced match with a 35% probability for a home win or an away win each
  • Colombia shows a strong offensive performance with an average of 5.8 shots on target in the last 5 games
  • Uzbekistan's goal threat is critically assessed according to the data: only 0% of the seasonal goal production is contributed by currently available players
Risk Factors
  • Uzbekistan averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Limited data available for head-to-head matches
Overview

Uzbekistan host Colombia at Estadio Banorte

World Cup match on June 18, 2026, 3:00 AM

Both teams begin the World Cup group stage with 0 points

Form

Uzbekistan's form in the last 5 games: DWDLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The team recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

They recently suffered two consecutive losses

Colombia's form in the last 5 games: WLLWW

Colombia secured 3 wins and 2 losses

The team won their last two matches

Statistics

Uzbekistan scored an average of 1.69 goals per game this season and conceded 0.69 goals

In home games, Uzbekistan scores an average of 1.75 goals and concedes only 0.38 goals

Colombia scored an average of 1.56 goals per game this season and conceded 1.00 goal

In away games, Colombia scores an average of 1.50 goals and concedes 1.38 goals

At Estadio Banorte, an average of 2.6 goals were scored in 5 games

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 games

Head-to-Head

No data is available for head-to-head matches between Uzbekistan and Colombia

Key Players

For Uzbekistan, Eldor Shomurodov (2 goals, 1 assist in the last 5 games), Abbosbek Fayzullaev (1 goal, 1 assist in the last 5 games) and Oston Urunov (2 goals in the last 5 games) are important players

For Colombia, Luis SuĂĄrez (4 goals, 2 assists in the last 5 games), James RodrĂ­guez (4 assists in the last 5 games) and Jhon Arias (2 goals in the last 5 games) are key players

Goalkeepers

For Uzbekistan, Utkir Yusupov is in goal; the team recorded 10 clean sheets this season

For Colombia, Camilo Vargas is in goal; the team recorded 7 clean sheets this season

Influences

Uzbekistan's home record shows an average of 1.75 goals scored and only 0.38 goals conceded

Colombia scored an average of 1.50 goals away and conceded 1.38 goals

The grass surface of Estadio Banorte is relevant for the match

The stadium recorded an average of 2.6 goals in 5 games, and both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games

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