World Cup

Australia - Türkiye

06/14/2026, 04:00 AM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Australia
1.2
Total xG
3.0
Türkiye
1.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

10%

1:2

10%

0:1

9%

0:2

8%

1:3

6%
What influences the xG?
AUSTÜR

Australia

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.09
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.02

Türkiye

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-1.44
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2.5 league avg)
-1.27
Attack strength (1.48x league average)
+0.82
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.14

League

High-scoring league (4 goals/match)
+1.55
+1.55
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Australia with Alessandro Circati: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Türkiye with Zeki Çelik: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Türkiye: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 4
    Australia: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

23%

Draw

22%

Away Win

55%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

45%

Away or Draw

77%

No Draw

78%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis strongly favors Türkiye with a 55% win probability
  • Goal production: Türkiye is predicted to score 1.87 goals, compared to Australia's 1.17 expected goals
  • Tactical comparison: Türkiye averages more possession (53%) and shots on target (4.2) than Australia (43% possession, 2.8 shots on target)
Risk Factors
  • Australia's goal production is currently stagnant (1.5), with a season average of 1.8
  • Türkiye's goal production is currently stagnant (2.0), with a season average of 2.5
  • No historical head-to-head data is available for this fixture
Overview

Australia host Türkiye at BC Place Stadium in the World Cup. The match takes place on June 14, 2026, 6:00 AM. Both teams are kicking off their tournament campaigns and aiming for a strong start.

Form

Australia's current form across all competitions is LWWLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This includes 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

Their last appearance ended in a draw

Türkiye is in very good form with DWWWW

The team recorded 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches

Their last appearance resulted in a win, and they are unbeaten in 4 games

Statistics

Australia has scored an average of 2.38 goals per game this season and conceded an average of 0.44 goals

Türkiye also averages 2.38 goals per game but conceded an average of 1.50 goals

Australia kept 10 clean sheets, while Türkiye recorded 3 clean sheets

The venue sees an average of 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games

Head-to-Head

No historical head-to-head data is available for this fixture

Key Players

For Australia, Mohamed Touré (2 goals in last 5 games), Harry Souttar (1 goal in last 5 games), and Connor Metcalfe (2 assists in last 5 games) are important players

For Türkiye, Kerem Aktürkoğlu (3 goals, 2 assists in last 5 games), Barış Alper Yılmaz (3 goals, 1 assist in last 5 games), and Arda Güler (2 goals, 2 assists in last 5 games) stand out

Goalkeepers

Patrick Beach played in 1 of Australia's last 5 matches

Uğurcan Çakır played in 5 of Türkiye's last 5 matches

Australia has achieved 10 clean sheets this season

Türkiye has recorded 3 clean sheets

Influences

Australia's home record shows an average of 2.3 home goals scored and 0.3 home goals conceded per game

Türkiye's away record indicates an average of 2.4 away goals scored and 1.0 away goals conceded

The BC Place Stadium venue averages 3.0 goals per game

Regarding the artificial turf surface, no specific performance data is available for Australia or Türkiye

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