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Australia – Türkiye2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Australia
1.17
Total xG
3.04
Türkiye
1.87
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Australia | Türkiye |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.55 | +1.55 |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −1.44 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2.5 league avg) | −1.27 | |
| Attack strength (1.48x league average) | +0.82 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.02 |
Key factors
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis strongly favors Türkiye with a 55% win probability
- Goal production: Türkiye is predicted to score 1.87 goals, compared to Australia's 1.17 expected goals
- Tactical comparison: Türkiye averages more possession (53%) and shots on target (4.2) than Australia (43% possession, 2.8 shots on target)
Risks
- Australia's goal production is currently stagnant (1.5), with a season average of 1.8
- Türkiye's goal production is currently stagnant (2.0), with a season average of 2.5
- No historical head-to-head data is available for this fixture
All probabilities
Result
Australia23%
Draw22%
Türkiye55%
Double chance
Australia or draw45%
Türkiye or draw77%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
10%
1:2
10%
0:1
9%
0:2
8%
1:3
6%
2:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Australia with Alessandro Circati: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Türkiye with Zeki Çelik: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Türkiye: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Australia: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Australia 5-4-1 · Türkiye 4-2-3-1
Australia
- 18 P. Beach
- 4 J. Italiano
- 3 A. Circati
- 19 H. Souttar
- 21 C. Burgess
- 5 J. Bos
- 8 C. Metcalfe
- 13 A. O'Neill
- 24 P. Junior Okon-Engstler
- 17 N. Irankunda
- 9 M. Toure
Türkiye
- 23 U. Çakır
- 2 M. Çelik
- 3 M. Demiral
- 14 A. Bardakcı
- 20 F. Kadıoğlu
- 16 İ. Yüksek
- 10 H. Çalhanoğlu
- 8 A. Guler
- 6 O. Kökçü
- 21 B. Yılmaz
- 7 M. Aktürkoğlu
Substitutes
- 22 J. Irvine
- 1 M. Ryan
- 11 A. Mabil
- 20 C. Volpato
- 10 A. Hrustic
- 12 P. Izzo
- 25 L. Herrington
- 15 K. Trewin
- 16 A. Behich
- 2 M. Degenek
- 6 J. Geria
- 23 N. Velupillay
- 14 C. Devlin
- 7 M. Leckie
- 26 T. Yengi
- 15 O. Kabak
- 5 S. Özcan
- 26 C. Uzun
- 12 A. Bayındır
- 22 K. Ayhan
- 13 E. Elmalı
- 19 Y. Akgün
- 11 K. Yildiz
- 18 M. Müldür
- 24 O. Aydın
- 4 C. Söyüncü
- 17 İ. Kahveci
- 9 D. Gül
- 1 F. Günok
- 25 S. Akaydin
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