World Cup

Iraq - Norway

06/16/2026, 10:00 PM

1 : 4
Expected Goals
Iraq
1.5
Total xG
3.1
Norway
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

2:2

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
IRANOR

Iraq

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2.4 league avg)
-1.18
Standings disadvantage (pos 58 vs 31, 27 places gap)
-0.27
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.01

Norway

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.46
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.35
Declining form (2.2 vs 3 season average)
-0.21
Standings advantage (pos 31 vs 58, 27 places gap)
+0.11

League

High-scoring league (4.3 goals/match)
+1.79
+1.79
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Norway with Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Norway: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

27%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a balanced match with 37% win probability for both Iraq and Norway, and 1.53 expected goals for each team
  • Norway's strong offensive output in away games (avg 4.67 goals) meets Iraq's solid home defense (avg 0.64 goals conceded)
  • Norway boasts a perfect record on artificial turf with one win and no goals conceded, while Iraq has no recorded matches on this surface
Risk Factors
  • The absence of historical head-to-head data between these teams leads to limited information for the prediction
  • Iraq averaged only 2.8 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, indicating low offensive efficiency
  • Norway's goal production shows a negative trend (currently 2.3 goals compared to a season average of 3.4 goals)
Overview

Iraq hosts Norway at Gillette Stadium for the opening of the World Cup on June 16, 2026, 11:00 PM

Both teams are starting their tournament campaign and aim for a successful beginning

Form

Iraq's recent form in the last five matches is DWWDL

This translates to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Their last game resulted in a 0-2 loss against Venezuela

Norway's form in their last five outings is WLDWD

They also recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Their most recent match was a 1-1 draw against Morocco

Statistics

Iraq scored an average of 1.45 goals and conceded 0.64 goals per home game

Norway averaged 4.67 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per away game

The Gillette Stadium has seen an average of 2.2 total goals per game in its last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 40% of games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60%

Head-to-Head

No head-to-head matches between Iraq and Norway are available in the provided dataset

Key Players

For Iraq, key players include Ali Al-Hamadi with 2 goals in 4 games, Merchas Doski with 1 goal in 3 games, and Amir Al-Ammari with 1 goal and 2 assists in 4 games

For Norway, Julian Ryerson is a key figure with 4 assists in 5 games, Martin Ødegaard contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in 4 games, and Erling Haaland provided 1 goal and 1 assist in 3 games

Goalkeepers

Jalal Hassan  of Iraq has recorded 12 clean sheets this season

Ørjan Nyland of Norway has kept 4 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf

Norway has a record of 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses with 1:0 goals on artificial turf

No data is available for Iraq's performance on artificial turf

Gillette Stadium averages 2.2 goals per game

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