Match report →
Iraq – Norway1 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Iraq
1.53
Total xG
3.05
Norway
1.53
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Iraq | Norway |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4.3 goals/match) | +1.79 | +1.79 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2.4 league avg) | −1.18 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.46 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.35 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 58 vs 31, 27 places gap) | −0.27 | |
| Declining form (2.2 vs 3 season average) | −0.21 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 31 vs 58, 27 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.01 |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a balanced match with 37% win probability for both Iraq and Norway, and 1.53 expected goals for each team
- Norway's strong offensive output in away games (avg 4.67 goals) meets Iraq's solid home defense (avg 0.64 goals conceded)
- Norway boasts a perfect record on artificial turf with one win and no goals conceded, while Iraq has no recorded matches on this surface
Risks
- The absence of historical head-to-head data between these teams leads to limited information for the prediction
- Iraq averaged only 2.8 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, indicating low offensive efficiency
- Norway's goal production shows a negative trend (currently 2.3 goals compared to a season average of 3.4 goals)
All probabilities
Result
Iraq37%
Draw27%
Norway37%
Double chance
Iraq or draw63%
Norway or draw63%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
1:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Norway with Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Norway: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Iraq 4-4-2 · Norway 4-4-2
Iraq
- 12 J. Hachim
- 3 H. Ali
- 4 Z. Hantoosh
- 5 A. Rahman
- 23 M. Doski
- 8 I. Bayesh
- 24 Z. Al Dulaimi
- 16 A. Al-Ammari
- 17 A. Al Tameemi
- 18 A. Hussein
- 9 A. Al-Hamadi
Norway
- 1 Ø. Håskjold Nyland
- 26 J. Ryerson
- 3 K. Vassbakk Ajer
- 17 T. Heggem
- 5 D. Wolfe
- 10 M. Ødegaard
- 8 S. Berge
- 14 F. Aursnes
- 20 A. Nordby Nusa
- 7 A. Sørloth
- 9 E. Haaland
Substitutes
- 7 Y. Amyn
- 14 Z. Iqbal
- 21 M. Farji
- 19 K. Yakob
- 11 A. Qasem
- 1 F. Raheem
- 13 A. Hashim
- 10 M. Ali
- 25 M. Saadoun Al Korji
- 20 A. Sher
- 2 R. Sulaka Adhamat
- 15 A. Hasan
- 6 M. Younnes
- 26 F. Putros
- 22 A. Fadhil
- 11 J. Strand Larsen
- 24 S. Langås
- 13 E. Selvik
- 22 O. Bobb
- 21 A. Schjelderup
- 6 P. Berg
- 23 J. Hauge
- 15 F. Bjørkan
- 19 T. Aasgaard
- 12 S. Tangvik
- 25 H. Falchener
- 4 L. Skiri Oestigaard
- 2 M. Thorsby
- 16 M. Pedersen
- 18 K. Thorstvedt
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