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Portugal – Congo DR1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Portugal
2.21
Total xG
2.78
Congo DR
0.58
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Portugal | Congo DR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.74x league average) | −2.01 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 2.7 league avg) | −1.80 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +1.33 | |
| High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match) | +1.14 | +1.14 |
| Attack weakness (0.65x league average) | −0.62 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.40 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Rising form (3.8 vs 3.1 season average) | +0.19 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 60, 55 places gap) | +0.15 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 60 vs 5, 55 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | −0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | −0.04 |
Key factors
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a home win for Portugal with 74% probability
- Portugal's offensive strength: Portugal is currently scoring more frequently (3.8) than their season average (2.7)
- Defensive strength vs. offensive weakness: Congo DR's goal production is faltering (1.0), while Portugal's defense is strong
Risks
- Limited scoring opportunities: Congo DR averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Limited data availability: There are no previous head-to-head matches between the teams
All probabilities
Result
Portugal74%
Draw19%
Congo DR7%
Double chance
Portugal or draw93%
Congo DR or draw26%
No draw81%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes40%
No60%
Most likely scores
2:0
15%
3:0
11%
1:1
9%
2:1
9%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Portugal with Diogo Dalot: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Portugal 4-2-3-1 · Congo DR 5-3-2
Portugal
- 1 D. Meireles Costa
- 20 J. Cavaco Cancelo
- 4 T. Araújo
- 13 R. Palma Veiga
- 25 N. Mendes
- 15 J. Gonçalves Neves
- 23 V. Machado Ferreira
- 10 B. Silva
- 8 B. Fernandes
- 18 P. Lomba Neto
- 7 C. Ronaldo
Congo DR
- 1 L. Mpasi-Nzau
- 2 A. Wan-Bissaka
- 22 C. Mbemba Mangulu
- 4 A. Tuanzebe
- 3 S. Kapuadi
- 26 A. Masuaku
- 6 N. Mukau
- 8 S. Moutoussamy
- 25 E. Kayembe
- 20 Y. Wissa
- 17 C. Bakambu
Substitutes
- 24 S. Costa
- 19 G. Ganchinho Guedes
- 9 G. Ramos
- 12 J. Malheiro de Sá
- 5 J. Dalot Teixeira
- 3 R. Santos Gato Alves Dias
- 6 M. Nunes
- 14 G. Inácio
- 16 F. Machado Mota de Castro Trincão
- 22 R. Dantas da Silva
- 26 F. Conceição
- 2 N. Cabral Semedo
- 17 R. Conceição Leão
- 21 R. Da Silva Neves
- 11 J. Sequeira
- 18 C. Pickel
- 9 B. Kibambe Cipenga
- 14 N. Sadiki
- 12 J. Kayembe Ditu
- 16 T. Fayulu
- 24 G. Kalulu Kyatengwa
- 11 G. Kakuta
- 10 T. Bongonda Mbul'Ofeko Batombo
- 23 S. Banza
- 5 D. Batubinsika
- 15 A. Tshibola
- 7 N. Mbuku
- 13 M. Elia
- 19 F. Kalala Mayele
- 21 L. Epolo Matthieu
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