World Cup

Portugal - Congo DR

06/17/2026, 05:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Portugal
2.2
Total xG
2.8
Congo DR
0.6
Most Likely Scores

2:0

15%

3:0

11%

1:1

9%

2:1

9%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
PORCD

Portugal

Attack strength (1.74x league average)
-2.01
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 2.7 league avg)
-1.80
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+1.33
Rising form (3.8 vs 3.1 season average)
+0.19
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 60, 55 places gap)
+0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
-0.04

Congo DR

Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-0.62
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.40
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.20
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.14
Standings disadvantage (pos 60 vs 5, 55 places gap)
-0.10
Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
-0.09

League

High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match)
+1.14
+1.14
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Portugal with Diogo Dalot: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

74%

Draw

19%

Away Win

7%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

93%

Away or Draw

26%

No Draw

81%

Both Score

Yes

40%

No

60%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a home win for Portugal with 74% probability
  • Portugal's offensive strength: Portugal is currently scoring more frequently (3.8) than their season average (2.7)
  • Defensive strength vs. offensive weakness: Congo DR's goal production is faltering (1.0), while Portugal's defense is strong
Risk Factors
  • Limited scoring opportunities: Congo DR averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Limited data availability: There are no previous head-to-head matches between the teams
Overview

Portugal hosts Congo DR at NRG Stadium in a World Cup group stage match on June 17, 2026, 6:00 PM. Both teams start in the group in 1st and 2nd position respectively with 0 points. This is the opening match of the tournament for both sides.

Form

Portugal is in excellent form with WDWWW (4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses) in their last 5 matches. Portugal recently achieved three consecutive wins. Congo DR's form is also good with WWDWD (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses). Their last match ended in a draw.

Statistics

Portugal averages 3.33 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded per game this season. They kept 2 clean sheets. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 6 matches. Away from home, Congo DR averages 1.43 goals scored and 0.57 goals conceded. They kept 3 clean sheets in away games. NRG Stadium, the venue, recorded an average of 8.0 total goals in one match, with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals being scored.

Head-to-Head

There are no previous head-to-head matches between Portugal and Congo DR in the provided data.

Key Players

For Portugal, Bruno Fernandes stands out with 2 goals and 2 assists in 418 minutes across the last 5 games. Cristiano Ronaldo scored 3 goals in 368 minutes. Pedro Neto contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in 265 minutes. For Congo DR, Axel Tuanzebe scored 1 goal in 406 minutes in his last 5 appearances.

Goalkeepers

Diogo Costa played 264 minutes across 3 of Portugal's last 5 matches. Portugal has 2 clean sheets this season. Lionel Mpasi-Nzau played 120 minutes in 1 of Congo DR's last 5 matches. Congo DR recorded 7 clean sheets this season.

Influences

Portugal has a record of 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses with 2:0 goals on artificial turf. Congo DR also performs well on artificial turf with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, scoring 4:1. NRG Stadium, with an average of 8.0 goals per game, tends to host high-scoring encounters.

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