World Cup
Netherlands - Japan
06/14/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.2
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
13%1:0
12%0:1
9%2:0
8%What influences the xG?
Netherlands
Japan
League
The Lab
- 1Netherlands with Jan Paul van Hecke: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 2Japan: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 3Japan with Yukinari Sugawara: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
39%
Draw
33%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
66%
Under 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
37%
Under 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
18%
Under 3.5
82%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
61%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
46%
No
55%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis sees the Netherlands as slight favorites with a 39% win probability and 71% for home win or draw
- Japan's defensive strength: Japan boasts an impressive defense with only 0.19 goals conceded per game and 13 clean sheets
- Recent form of both teams: Both teams show a negative trend in goal production according to advanced stats
Risk Factors
- Limited data: Only one historical head-to-head match is available, reducing comparability
- Unknown surface influence: No specific performance data for either team on artificial turf is available
- Negative form trends: Both teams show a negative trend in goal production according to advanced stats compared to their season average
Overview
The Netherlands host Japan at AT&T Stadium in a World Cup group stage match. The game takes place on June 14, 2026, 9:00 PM. This is the first tournament match for both teams, making it a crucial opener.
Form
The Netherlands' form across all competitions is WWDLW, consisting of 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five games. Their last result was a 2-1 victory against Uzbekistan. Japan shows an impressive streak of WWWWW, which means 5 consecutive wins. Japan won their last match 1-0 against Iceland. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
The Netherlands have averaged 3.38 goals scored per game this season and conceded 0.5 goals per game. They kept 5 clean sheets, both teams scored in 3 matches, and 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals. Japan also boasts a high goal average of 3.38, but with exceptionally low 0.19 goals conceded per game. Japan recorded 13 clean sheets and both teams scored in 2 matches. For Japan, 10 games ended with over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
There has been one head-to-head match between the Netherlands and Japan. The Netherlands won this sole encounter 1-0 on June 19, 2010. This provides limited insight for the current game.
Key Players
For the Netherlands, Donyell Malen (3 goals), Virgil van Dijk (2 goals), and Cody Gakpo (2 goals) have shown their scoring threat in the last five games. For Japan, Daizen Maeda with 5 goals, Ayase Ueda with 2 goals, and Keito Nakamura with 1 goal and 2 assists stand out in recent matches.
Goalkeepers
Bart Verbruggen is the goalkeeper for the Netherlands, who kept 5 clean sheets this season. For Japan, Zion Suzuki is in goal, and his team recorded an impressive 13 clean sheets.
Influences
The match will be played on artificial turf at AT&T Stadium. There is no specific performance data available for either team on artificial turf.