Match report →
Netherlands – Japan2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Netherlands
1.19
Total xG
2.18
Japan
0.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Netherlands | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.93 | |
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.79 | |
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.76 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.21 | |
| Declining form (1.8 vs 2.5 season average) | −0.21 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.15 | |
| 5 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1.6 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 7, 12 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 19, 12 places gap) | +0.07 |
Key factors
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis sees the Netherlands as slight favorites with a 39% win probability and 71% for home win or draw
- Japan's defensive strength: Japan boasts an impressive defense with only 0.19 goals conceded per game and 13 clean sheets
- Recent form of both teams: Both teams show a negative trend in goal production according to advanced stats
Risks
- Limited data: Only one historical head-to-head match is available, reducing comparability
- Unknown surface influence: No specific performance data for either team on artificial turf is available
- Negative form trends: Both teams show a negative trend in goal production according to advanced stats compared to their season average
All probabilities
Result
Netherlands39%
Draw33%
Japan29%
Double chance
Netherlands or draw71%
Japan or draw61%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
1:0
12%
0:1
9%
2:0
8%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Netherlands with Jan Paul van Hecke: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Japan: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Japan with Yukinari Sugawara: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Netherlands 4-3-3 · Japan 3-4-2-1
Netherlands
- 1 B. Verbruggen
- 22 D. Dumfries
- 6 J. van Hecke
- 4 V. van Dijk
- 15 M. van de Ven
- 8 R. Gravenberch
- 21 F. de Jong
- 14 T. Reijnders
- 24 C. Summerville
- 18 D. Malen
- 11 C. Gakpo
Japan
- 1 Z. Suzuki
- 16 T. Watanabe
- 3 S. Taniguchi
- 21 H. Ito
- 10 R. Doan
- 24 K. Sano
- 15 D. Kamada
- 13 K. Nakamura
- 8 T. Kubo
- 11 D. Maeda
- 18 A. Ueda
Substitutes
- 12 M. Wieffer
- 23 M. Flekken
- 2 L. Geertruida
- 19 B. Brobbey
- 13 R. Roefs
- 7 J. Kluivert
- 5 N. Aké
- 25 J. Hato
- 3 M. de Roon
- 16 G. Til
- 9 W. Weghorst
- 17 N. Lang
- 20 T. Koopmeiners
- 26 Q. Timber
- 10 M. Depay
- 2 Y. Sugawara
- 6 S. Machino
- 17 Y. Suzuki
- 20 A. Seko
- 7 A. Tanaka
- 4 K. Itakura
- 22 T. Tomiyasu
- 25 J. Suzuki
- 14 J. Ito
- 19 K. Ogawa
- 26 K. Shiogai
- 23 T. Hayakawa
- 5 Y. Nagatomo
- 9 K. Goto
- 12 K. Osako
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