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Korea Republic – Czech Republic2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Korea Republic
1.43
Total xG
2.66
Czech Republic
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Korea Republic | Czech Republic |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −2.20 | |
| Attack strength (2.07x league average) | +1.72 | |
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.20 | +1.20 |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.66 | |
| Attack strength (1.28x league average) | +0.22 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 39 vs 23, 16 places gap) | −0.22 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.21 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 23 vs 39, 16 places gap) | +0.10 |
Key factors
- Slight favorite role for Korea Republic with a 42% win probability according to mathematical analysis
- Korea Republic's strong season record with an average of 2.50 goals scored and only 0.50 goals conceded
- Czech Republic's recently improved offense with an average of 2.6 goals per game in recent matches
Risks
- Korea Republic's goal production is stagnant with an average of 1.4 goals in recent matches
- Czech Republic concedes an average of 1.75 goals per away game
- The match will be played on artificial turf, for which no specific team performance data is available
All probabilities
Result
Korea Republic42%
Draw26%
Czech Republic32%
Double chance
Korea Republic or draw68%
Czech Republic or draw58%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:0
10%
2:1
9%
0:1
8%
1:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Korea Republic with Hyeon-gyu Oh: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Czech Republic: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Korea Republic: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Korea Republic 3-4-2-1 · Czech Republic 3-4-2-1
Korea Republic
- 1 S. Kim
- 2 H. Lee
- 4 M. Kim
- 3 G. Lee
- 22 Seol Young-Woo
- 6 I. Hwang
- 8 S. Paik
- 13 T. Lee
- 19 K. Lee
- 10 J. Lee
- 7 H. Son
Czech Republic
- 1 M. Kovář
- 6 ?. Chaloupek
- 4 R. Hranáč
- 7 L. Krejčí
- 5 V. Coufal
- 22 T. Souček
- 24 A. Sojka
- 20 J. Zelený
- 17 L. Provod
- 15 P. Šulc
- 10 P. Schick
Substitutes
- 23 J. Castrop
- 11 H. Hwang
- 25 J. Eom
- 17 J. Bae
- 20 H. Yang
- 18 H. Oh
- 9 K. Cho
- 16 J. Park
- 15 M. Kim
- 5 T. Kim
- 26 D. Lee
- 24 J. Kim
- 12 B. Song
- 21 H. Cho
- 14 W. Cho
- 9 A. Hložek
- 21 D. Douděra
- 16 J. Staněk
- 19 T. Chorý
- 2 D. Zima
- 3 T. Holeš
- 13 M. Chytil
- 18 M. Sadílek
- 26 D. Višinský
- 12 L. Červ
- 23 L. Horníček
- 14 D. Jurásek
- 11 J. Kuchta
- 25 H. Sochůrek
- 8 V. Darida
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