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World Cup06/13/2026, 10:00 PM

Brazil – Morocco1 : 1

Why the model thinks so

Brazil
1.13
Total xG
2.25
Morocco
1.13
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorBrazilMorocco
Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean−1.08
Defensive strength (0.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)−0.98
Attack strength (1.59x league average)+0.70
Attack strength (1.73x league average)−0.58
High-scoring league (3 goals/match)+0.50+0.50
Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean+0.21
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)+0.20
Rising form (2.6 vs 1.9 season average)+0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)+0.01
Full strength squad available

Key factors

  • Equal Chances: The mathematical analysis shows an equal win probability of 34% for both teams and expects 1.12 goals per team
  • Offensive Strength: Morocco's consistently high scoring (avg 2.6 goals) meets Brazil's improved form (currently avg 2.6 goals compared to avg 1.7 season goals)
  • Artificial Turf Influence: Morocco's positive record (1W-0D-0L) on artificial turf contrasts with Brazil's difficulties (0W-0D-2L)

Risks

  • Neymar (Calf Injury) is absent for Brazil
  • Limited data available regarding head-to-head matches between the teams
  • The probability for over 2.5 goals is only 39% according to the model

All probabilities

Result
Brazil34%
Draw32%
Morocco34%
Double chance
Brazil or draw66%
Morocco or draw66%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%

Most likely scores

1:1
15%
0:0
12%
0:1
10%
1:0
10%
1:2
8%

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Brazil: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
  2. Morocco: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)
  3. Morocco with Soufiane Rahimi: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
  4. Brazil: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
  5. Morocco: 50% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 12)

Lineups

Brazil 4-2-3-1 · Morocco 4-2-3-1

Brazil
  • 1 A. Becker
  • 24 R. Ibañez da Silva
  • 4 M. Aoás Corrêa
  • 3 G. dos Santos Magalhães
  • 16 D. dos Santos Justino de Melo
  • 5 C. Casimiro
  • 8 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
  • 20 L. Tolentino Coelho de Lima
  • 11 Raphinha
  • 7 V. Júnior
  • 25 Thiago
Morocco
  • 1 Y. Bounou
  • 2 A. Hakimi Mouh
  • 14 I. Diop
  • 18 C. Riad
  • 3 N. Mazraoui
  • 24 N. El Aynaoui
  • 6 A. Bouaddi
  • 10 B. Abdelkader Diaz
  • 8 A. Ounahi
  • 23 B. El Khannous
  • 11 I. Saibari Ben El Basra
Substitutes
  • 19 E. Moreira de Sousa
  • 9 M. Carneiro Da Cunha
  • 22 G. Martinelli Silva
  • 2 É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
  • 14 G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
  • 23 E. Santana de Moraes
  • 26 R. Rocha
  • 17 F. Tavares
  • 13 D. da Silva
  • 6 A. Lobo Silva
  • 21 L. Rosa da Silva
  • 12 W. Pereira da Silva
  • 18 D. dos Santos de Oliveira
  • 15 L. Pereira
  • 21 A. Amaimouni-Echghouyab
  • 17 M. Sbai
  • 4 S. Amrabat
  • 15 S. El Mourabet
  • 7 C. Talbi
  • 26 A. Salah-Eddine
  • 20 A. El Kaabi
  • 13 Z. El Ouahdi
  • 16 G. Yassine
  • 5 M. Saadane
  • 25 R. Halhal
  • 9 S. Rahimi
  • 19 Y. Belammari
  • 12 M. Mohand Mohamedi
  • 22 A. Tagnaouti

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