World Cup
Brazil - Morocco
06/13/2026, 10:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.3
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
12%0:1
10%1:0
10%1:2
8%What influences the xG?
Brazil
Morocco
League
The Lab
- 1Brazil: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Morocco: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)
- 3Morocco with Soufiane Rahimi: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- 4Brazil: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5Morocco: 50% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 12)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
34%
Draw
32%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
67%
Under 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
39%
Under 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
66%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- Equal Chances: The mathematical analysis shows an equal win probability of 34% for both teams and expects 1.12 goals per team
- Offensive Strength: Morocco's consistently high scoring (avg 2.6 goals) meets Brazil's improved form (currently avg 2.6 goals compared to avg 1.7 season goals)
- Artificial Turf Influence: Morocco's positive record (1W-0D-0L) on artificial turf contrasts with Brazil's difficulties (0W-0D-2L)
Risk Factors
- Neymar (Calf Injury) is absent for Brazil
- Limited data available regarding head-to-head matches between the teams
- The probability for over 2.5 goals is only 39% according to the model
Overview
Brazil hosts Morocco at MetLife Stadium for their first World Cup match on June 13, 2026, 11:00 PM. Both teams begin the group stage with 0 points and 0 games played.
Form
Brazil's recent form in the last five matches is DLWWW, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Their last game was a 2-1 victory against Egypt, securing three consecutive wins.
Morocco's form in their last five matches is DWWWD, achieving 3 wins and 2 draws without a loss. Their most recent game was a 1-1 draw against Norway. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Brazil averages 1.33 goals scored per game and concedes 0.94 goals. At home, they average 1.29 goals scored and 0.36 goals conceded. In their last 5 games, Brazil averaged 6.6 shots on target and 54% possession, indicating a strong offensive and balanced playing style.
Morocco boasts a strong record with an average of 2.75 goals scored and only 0.25 goals conceded per game. Away from home, Morocco averages 3.0 goals scored and 0.25 goals conceded. In their last 5 games, Morocco averaged 5.2 shots on target and was dominant with 58% possession. Brazil is currently scoring more frequently (2.6) than their season average (1.7), while Morocco consistently scores 2.6 goals per game.
Head-to-Head
No data on previous head-to-head matches between Brazil and Morocco is available in the provided dataset.
Key Players
For Brazil, Vinicius Junior stands out with 2 goals and 1 assist in 4 games (avg rating 7.23), Raphinha with 2 goals and 1 assist in 4 games (avg rating 7.32), and Lucas Paquetá with 2 goals and 1 assist in 5 games (avg rating 7.34).
For Morocco, Ismael Saibari is a key player with 3 goals in 4 games (avg rating 7.41), Brahim Díaz with 2 goals and 1 assist in 5 games (avg rating 7.34), and Neil El Aynaoui with 1 goal and 1 assist in 5 games (avg rating 7.16).
Goalkeepers
Brazil's goalkeeper Alisson has achieved 6 clean sheets this season.
Morocco's goalkeeper Yassine Bounou also has 6 clean sheets.
Influences
The match will be played on artificial turf. Brazil has a record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses with a goal difference of 1:3 on this surface. Morocco has a perfect record of 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses with 2:0 goals on artificial turf.