Match report →
Canada – Bosnia and Herzegovina1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Canada
1.49
Total xG
2.42
Bosnia and Herzegovina
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Canada | Bosnia and Herzegovina |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −1.24 | |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −1.05 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.81 | +0.81 |
| Attack strength (1.42x league average) | +0.78 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.32 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.26 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 73 vs 26, 47 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 26 vs 73, 47 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.07 |
Key factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a home win for Canada with 51% probability
- Bosnia and Herzegovina's Form: The team recorded five consecutive draws recently and shows a negative trend in goal production
- Canada's Home Defense: The team concedes an average of only 0.6 goals per game at home
Risks
- Limited data available for head-to-head matches, as no previous meetings were found
- Bosnia and Herzegovina has not failed to score in any game this season
- Canada recorded over 2.5 goals in only 1 out of 5 games this season
All probabilities
Result
Canada51%
Draw27%
Bosnia and Herzegovina23%
Double chance
Canada or draw77%
Bosnia and Herzegovina or draw49%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:0
13%
1:1
12%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
0:0
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Canada with Jonathan Osorio : 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Canada: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Bosnia and Herzegovina: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Canada 4-4-2 · Bosnia and Herzegovina 4-4-2
Canada
- 16 M. Crépeau
- 2 A. Johnston
- 4 L. De Fougerolles
- 13 D. Cornelius
- 22 R. Laryea
- 17 T. Buchanan
- 8 I. Koné
- 7 S. Antunes Eustáquio
- 11 L. Millar
- 10 J. David
- 12 T. Oluwaseyi
Bosnia and Herzegovina
- 1 N. Vasilj
- 7 A. Dedić
- 18 N. Katić
- 4 T. Muharemovic
- 5 S. Kolašinac
- 20 E. Bajraktarevic
- 6 B. Tahirovic
- 13 I. Bašić
- 15 A. Memić
- 10 E. Demirović
- 25 J. Lukić
Substitutes
- 6 M. Choiniere
- 19 A. Davies
- 15 M. Bombito
- 20 A. Ahmed
- 18 O. Goodman
- 3 A. Jones
- 24 P. Akinpelu
- 9 C. Larin
- 25 N. Saliba
- 23 N. Sigur
- 5 J. Waterman
- 26 J. Nelson
- 21 J. Osorio
- 1 D. St Clair
- 14 J. Shaffelburg
- 23 H. Tabakovic
- 8 A. Gigovic
- 9 S. Baždar
- 16 A. Hadžiahmetović
- 14 I. Šunjić
- 24 A. Malic
- 19 K. Alajbegović
- 21 S. Radeljić
- 22 M. Zlomislić
- 12 M. Jurkas
- 11 E. Džeko
- 3 D. Hadzikadunic
- 2 N. Mujakić
- 17 D. Burnic
- 26 E. Mahmić
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