World Cup

Canada - Bosnia and Herzegovina

06/12/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Canada
1.5
Total xG
2.4
Bosnia and Herzegovina
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:0

13%

1:1

12%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%

0:0

9%
What influences the xG?
CANBAH

Canada

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-1.24
Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-1.05
Attack strength (1.42x league average)
+0.78
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.18
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 26 vs 73, 47 places gap)
+0.10

Bosnia and Herzegovina

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.32
Declining form (1 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.26
Standings disadvantage (pos 73 vs 26, 47 places gap)
-0.17
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.07

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.81
+0.81
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Canada with Jonathan Osorio : 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Canada: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 3
    Bosnia and Herzegovina: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

27%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a home win for Canada with 51% probability
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina's Form: The team recorded five consecutive draws recently and shows a negative trend in goal production
  • Canada's Home Defense: The team concedes an average of only 0.6 goals per game at home
Risk Factors
  • Limited data available for head-to-head matches, as no previous meetings were found
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina has not failed to score in any game this season
  • Canada recorded over 2.5 goals in only 1 out of 5 games this season
Overview

Canada hosts Bosnia and Herzegovina at BMO Field in Toronto

World Cup match on June 12, 2026, 3:00 PM

Both teams start with 0 points in the standings and will fight for their first tournament points

Form

Canada's recent form in the last five games is WDDWD (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses)

The last match ended in a draw

Bosnia and Herzegovina's form in the last five matches is DDDDD (0 wins, 5 draws, 0 losses)

The team drew five consecutive matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Canada scored an average of 1.2 goals per game this season and conceded 0.6 goals

The team kept 3 clean sheets and had 1 match with over 2.5 goals

Bosnia and Herzegovina averaged 1.9 goals scored and 0.9 goals conceded

The team had 3 clean sheets and 5 matches with over 2.5 goals

At home, Canada averages 1.2 goals scored and 0.6 goals conceded

Bosnia and Herzegovina averages 1.83 goals scored away and 0.67 goals conceded

Advanced statistics show Canada consistently scores around 1.8 goals per game

Bosnia and Herzegovina's goal production is currently stagnant at 1.0 goals, while the season average is 1.8

At BMO Field, an average of 3.8 goals per game are scored

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

No data is available for previous head-to-head matches between Canada and Bosnia and Herzegovina

Key Players

For Canada, the following players stand out

Richie Laryea scored 1 goal in his last 4 games

Tani Oluwaseyi provided 2 assists in his last 3 games

Ismaël Koné achieved an average rating of 6.89 in his last 5 games

For Bosnia and Herzegovina, these players are important

Esmir Bajraktarevic scored 2 goals and provided 2 assists in his last 4 games

Ermedin Demirovic scored 2 goals in his last 3 games

Nikola Katic achieved an average rating of 7.09 in his last 4 games

Goalkeepers

Canada's goalkeeper Maxime Crépeau achieved an average rating of 6.85 in his last 5 games

Canada recorded 3 clean sheets this season

Bosnia and Herzegovina's goalkeeper Nikola Vasilj had an average rating of 6.88 in his last 3 games

Bosnia and Herzegovina recorded 3 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass

Canada shows a solid home defense, conceding an average of 0.6 goals per game

At BMO Field, the average is 3.8 goals per game

Both teams score in 80% of matches at BMO Field, and over 2.5 goals are scored in 60% of matches

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.