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Haiti – Scotland0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Haiti
1.39
Total xG
3.02
Scotland
1.63
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Haiti | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4.2 goals/match) | +1.70 | +1.70 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2.2 league avg) | −0.97 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.83 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.41 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.40 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 87 vs 43, 44 places gap) | −0.25 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.22 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 43 vs 87, 44 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| Attack strength (1.6x league average) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.02 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- According to the mathematical analysis, Scotland is slightly favored with a win probability of 44%.
- Scotland averaged 6.2 shots on target in their last 5 games, compared to Haiti's 3.4 shots, indicating stronger offensive intent.
- Scotland enters the match with two consecutive wins, while Haiti suffered a recent loss and shows a negative form trend.
Risks
- Haiti has a perfect record on artificial turf (2 wins, 8:0 goals), while no data is available for Scotland on this surface type.
- No historical head-to-head data is available for this match, limiting the analysis.
- Critical data situation: Only 0% of Scotland's goal production is available in the provided data.
All probabilities
Result
Haiti33%
Draw23%
Scotland44%
Double chance
Haiti or draw56%
Scotland or draw67%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:1
7%
1:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Scotland with Ben Gannon-Doak: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Scotland: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Scotland: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Haiti 4-4-2 · Scotland 4-4-2
Haiti
- 1 J. Placide
- 2 C. Arcus
- 4 R. Ade
- 5 H. Delcroix
- 8 M. Expérience
- 11 L. Deedson
- 17 D. Jean Jacques
- 10 J. Bellegarde
- 15 R. Providence
- 20 F. Pierrot
- 18 W. Isidor
Scotland
- 1 A. Gunn
- 2 A. Hickey
- 5 G. Hanley
- 13 J. Hendry
- 3 A. Robertson
- 17 B. Doak
- 4 S. McTominay
- 19 L. Ferguson
- 7 J. McGinn
- 20 L. Shankland
- 10 C. Adams
Substitutes
- 21 J. Casimir
- 16 L. Joseph
- 22 J. Duverne
- 7 D. Etienne Jr.
- 24 W. Paugain
- 23 J. Duverger
- 3 K. Thermoncy
- 19 Y. Fortune
- 9 D. Nazon
- 6 C. Sainte
- 12 A. Pierre
- 13 M. Lacroix
- 14 G. Metusala
- 26 W. Pierre
- 25 D. Simon
- 11 R. Christie
- 22 N. Patterson
- 9 L. Dykes
- 23 K. McLean
- 18 G. Hirst
- 16 D. Hyam
- 14 R. Stewart
- 25 F. Curtis
- 12 L. Kelly
- 15 J. Souttar
- 24 A. Ralston
- 6 K. Tierney
- 26 S. McKenna
- 8 T. Fletcher
- 21 Craig Gordon
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