World Cup

Haiti - Scotland

06/14/2026, 01:00 AM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Haiti
1.4
Total xG
3.0
Scotland
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:1

7%

1:0

6%
What influences the xG?
HAISCO

Haiti

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2.2 league avg)
-0.97
Standings disadvantage (pos 87 vs 43, 44 places gap)
-0.25
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.09
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.02

Scotland

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.83
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.41
Rising form (3 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.40
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.22
Standings advantage (pos 43 vs 87, 44 places gap)
+0.11
Attack strength (1.6x league average)
-0.09
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (4.2 goals/match)
+1.70
+1.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Scotland with Ben Gannon-Doak: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Scotland: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Scotland: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

23%

Away Win

44%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

56%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • According to the mathematical analysis, Scotland is slightly favored with a win probability of 44%.
  • Scotland averaged 6.2 shots on target in their last 5 games, compared to Haiti's 3.4 shots, indicating stronger offensive intent.
  • Scotland enters the match with two consecutive wins, while Haiti suffered a recent loss and shows a negative form trend.
Risk Factors
  • Haiti has a perfect record on artificial turf (2 wins, 8:0 goals), while no data is available for Scotland on this surface type.
  • No historical head-to-head data is available for this match, limiting the analysis.
  • Critical data situation: Only 0% of Scotland's goal production is available in the provided data.
Overview

Haiti (3rd place, 0 points) host Scotland (4th place, 0 points) at Gillette Stadium. This World Cup match is scheduled for June 14, 2026, 3:00 AM. Both teams are starting their group stage campaign.

Form

Haiti's form in the last five matches is WLDWL, equating to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their last result was a loss. Scotland's form in the last five games is WLLWW, with 3 wins and 2 losses. Scotland has won their last two consecutive matches. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

Haiti has an average of 2.00 goals scored per game and conceded 1.30 goals per game this season. They kept 5 clean sheets. Scotland averaged 2.17 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded per game. Scotland scored an average of 2.00 goals and conceded 1.50 goals in away games. Gillette Stadium has seen an average of 2.6 total goals per game in its last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 games.

Head-to-Head

No historical head-to-head data is available for this match.

Key Players

For Haiti, Wilson Isidor with 2 goals in 3 games and Louicius Deedson with 1 goal and 1 assist in 4 games are important players. Ruben Providence scored 1 goal in 2 games. For Scotland, Lawrence Shankland stands out with 5 goals and 1 assist in 5 games. Ché Adams scored 3 goals in 4 games, and Scott McTominay contributed 2 goals in 5 games.

Goalkeepers

Johny Placide, Haiti's goalkeeper, has recorded 5 clean sheets this season. Angus Gunn for Scotland has kept 2 clean sheets.

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf. Haiti has a positive record on artificial turf with 2 wins and 0 losses, scoring 8:0 goals. There are no specific data available for Scotland's performance on artificial turf. Gillette Stadium has an average of 2.6 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 60% of matches.

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