World Cup

Germany - Curacao

06/14/2026, 05:00 PM

7 : 1
Expected Goals
Germany
1.9
Total xG
2.6
Curacao
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

2:0

13%

1:1

9%

2:1

9%

3:0

8%
What influences the xG?
GERCUR

Germany

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-4.42
Attack strength (2.51x league average)
+3.80
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match)
+0.40
Rising form (3.6 vs 2.3 season average)
+0.40

Curacao

Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+1.19
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.17
Declining form (0.7 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.16
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.16

League

High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match)
+1.01
+1.01
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Germany with Leroy Sané: 2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Germany: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Germany: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

66%

Draw

21%

Away Win

13%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

87%

Away or Draw

34%

No Draw

79%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Germany's impressive form with 5 consecutive wins is supported by a pipeline prediction of 66% for a home win and 1.86 expected home goals
  • Germany's strong offense, averaging 3.6 goals in recent games, meets Curacao's defensive vulnerability with an average of 3.67 goals conceded recently and only 0.77 expected away goals
  • Germany's tactical dominance with 62% possession and an average of 8.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

Germany host Curacao at NRG Stadium in a World Cup match

The game takes place on June 14, 2026, 7:00 PM

Both teams are starting their World Cup group stage campaign

Form

Germany is in excellent form with 5 consecutive wins (WWWWW)

Germany recently won 2-1 away against the United States

Curacao's last 5 games show 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses (WDLLL)

The team has suffered 3 consecutive losses recently

Statistics

Germany scored an average of 2.67 goals and conceded 0.5 goals per season

In home games, Germany scored an average of 2.6 goals and conceded only 0.2 goals

Curacao has a season average of 2.8 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded

Away from home, Curacao also scored an average of 2.8 goals and conceded only 0.2 goals

Germany recorded 4 clean sheets this season, while Curacao achieved 6

Head-to-Head

No head-to-head data is available for Germany and Curacao

Key Players

For Germany, Kai Havertz is a key player with 3 goals and 2 assists in 5 games, and Joshua Kimmich with 4 assists in 5 games

Nico Schlotterbeck contributed 1 goal in 5 games

For Curacao, Leandro Bacuna stands out with 1 goal and 1 assist in 4 games, and Juninho Bacuna with 2 assists in 5 games

Tahith Chong scored 1 goal in 5 games

Goalkeepers

Germany's goalkeeper Manuel Neuer played 2 of the last 5 games and has 4 clean sheets this season

Curacao's goalkeeper Eloy Room played 4 of the last 5 games and recorded 6 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf

No specific data on Germany's performance on artificial turf is available

Curacao has a record of 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss with 4:2 goals on artificial turf

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