Match report →
Germany – Curacao7 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Germany
1.86
Total xG
2.63
Curacao
0.77
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Germany | Curacao |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −4.42 | |
| Attack strength (2.51x league average) | +3.80 | |
| Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +1.19 | |
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +1.01 | +1.01 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match) | +0.40 | |
| Rising form (3.6 vs 2.3 season average) | +0.40 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Declining form (0.7 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.16 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.16 |
Key factors
- Germany's impressive form with 5 consecutive wins is supported by a pipeline prediction of 66% for a home win and 1.86 expected home goals
- Germany's strong offense, averaging 3.6 goals in recent games, meets Curacao's defensive vulnerability with an average of 3.67 goals conceded recently and only 0.77 expected away goals
- Germany's tactical dominance with 62% possession and an average of 8.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
Risks
All probabilities
Result
Germany66%
Draw21%
Curacao13%
Double chance
Germany or draw87%
Curacao or draw34%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:0
14%
2:0
13%
1:1
9%
2:1
9%
3:0
8%
7:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Germany with Leroy Sané: 2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Germany: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Germany: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
Lineups
Germany 4-2-3-1 · Curacao 4-3-1-2
Germany
- 1 M. Neuer
- 6 J. Kimmich
- 4 J. Tah
- 15 N. Schlotterbeck
- 18 N. Brown
- 23 F. Nmecha
- 5 A. Pavlović
- 19 L. Sané
- 10 J. Musiala
- 17 F. Wirtz
- 7 K. Havertz
Curacao
- 1 E. Room
- 5 S. Floranus
- 23 R. Bazoer
- 18 A. Obispo
- 24 D. Fonville
- 8 L. Comenencia
- 10 L. Bacuna
- 7 J. Bacuna
- 21 T. Chong
- 9 J. Locadia
- 12 S. Hansen
Substitutes
- 25 F. Ouedraogo
- 22 D. Raum
- 12 O. Baumann
- 13 P. Groß
- 3 W. Anton
- 14 M. Beier
- 8 L. Goretzka
- 21 A. Nübel
- 26 D. Undav
- 16 A. Stiller
- 9 J. Leweling
- 20 N. Amiri
- 2 A. Rüdiger
- 24 M. Thiaw
- 11 N. Woltemade
- 15 A. Martha
- 14 K. Gorré
- 13 T. Noslin
- 25 T. Bodak
- 17 B. Kuwas
- 2 S. Sambo
- 3 J. Gaari
- 11 J. Antonisse
- 20 J. Brenet
- 22 K. Felida
- 26 T. Doornbusch
- 4 R. van Eijma
- 6 G. Roemeratoe
- 16 J. Margaritha
- 19 G. Kastaneer
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →