Match report →
Qatar – Switzerland1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Qatar
0.96
Total xG
2.17
Switzerland
1.21
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Qatar | Switzerland |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −1.88 | |
| Attack strength (1.7x league average) | +1.50 | |
| Defensive weakness (2.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.86 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −0.37 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 53 vs 17, 36 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 17 vs 53, 36 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.01 |
Key factors
- According to mathematical analysis, Switzerland has a higher win probability of 40%, while Qatar has a 27% chance of winning
- Switzerland averaged 4.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, compared to Qatar's 1.8 shots on target
- Switzerland conceded only an average of 0.33 goals per game this season, compared to Qatar's 1.56 goals per game
Risks
- Qatar averaged 1.8 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating limited offensive output
- Switzerland conceded an average of 2 goals in their recent matches, compared to their season average of 0.33 goals conceded
- Qatar's recent goal production is 1.0 goals per game, lower than their season average of 1.26 goals
All probabilities
Result
Qatar27%
Draw33%
Switzerland40%
Double chance
Qatar or draw60%
Switzerland or draw73%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
0:1
12%
1:0
9%
0:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Switzerland with Remo Freuler: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Qatar: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Qatar 4-3-3 · Switzerland 4-3-3
Qatar
- 1 M. Abunad
- 13 A. Al Oui
- 2 P. Correia
- 16 B. Khoukhi
- 14 H. Ahmed
- 5 J. Abdulsallam
- 23 A. Al Haj Madibo
- 4 G. Laye
- 8 E. da Silva
- 15 Y. Youssef
- 11 A. Afif
Switzerland
- 1 G. Kobel
- 6 D. Zakaria Lako Lado
- 4 N. Elvedi
- 5 M. Akanji
- 13 R. Rodríguez Araya
- 20 M. Aebischer
- 10 G. Xhaka
- 8 R. Freuler
- 11 D. Ndoye
- 7 B. Embolo
- 17 R. Vargas
Substitutes
- 3 L. Mendes
- 20 A. Fathi
- 18 S. Al-Braik
- 26 M. Almanai
- 25 E. El Hussain Mohi aldin
- 17 A. Alganehi
- 21 S. Zakaria Hassan
- 12 K. Boudiaf
- 10 H. Al Heidos
- 19 A. Abdulla
- 24 T. Jamshid
- 22 M. Barsham
- 9 M. Muntari
- 6 A. Abdullah
- 7 A. Abdelmotaal
- 22 F. Rieder
- 2 M. Muheim
- 24 A. Amenda
- 16 C. Fassnacht
- 21 M. Keller
- 9 J. Manzambi
- 25 L. Jaquez
- 3 S. Widmer
- 12 Y. Mvogo
- 15 D. Sow
- 18 E. Cömert
- 19 N. Okafor
- 23 M. Amdouni
- 14 A. Jasari
- 26 C. Itten
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