World Cup

Qatar - Switzerland

06/13/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Qatar
1.0
Total xG
2.2
Switzerland
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

0:1

12%

1:0

9%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
QATSWI

Qatar

Defensive weakness (2.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.86
Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-0.37
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 53 vs 17, 36 places gap)
-0.17
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.08
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.01

Switzerland

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-1.88
Attack strength (1.7x league average)
+1.50
Standings advantage (pos 17 vs 53, 36 places gap)
+0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.02

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.50
+0.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Switzerland with Remo Freuler: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Qatar: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

27%

Draw

33%

Away Win

40%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

60%

Away or Draw

73%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • According to mathematical analysis, Switzerland has a higher win probability of 40%, while Qatar has a 27% chance of winning
  • Switzerland averaged 4.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, compared to Qatar's 1.8 shots on target
  • Switzerland conceded only an average of 0.33 goals per game this season, compared to Qatar's 1.56 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Qatar averaged 1.8 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating limited offensive output
  • Switzerland conceded an average of 2 goals in their recent matches, compared to their season average of 0.33 goals conceded
  • Qatar's recent goal production is 1.0 goals per game, lower than their season average of 1.26 goals
Overview

Qatar (3rd place, 0 points) and Switzerland (4th place, 0 points) face each other at Levi's Stadium in the World Cup group stage. The match takes place on June 13, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC. Both teams kick off their tournament campaigns, battling for crucial early points.

Form

Qatar's current form (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) across all competitions is LDWLD (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses). Their last match ended in a 0-0 draw against El Salvador. Prior to that, they had a 0-1 loss against Republic of Ireland and a 2-1 win against United Arab Emirates.

Switzerland shows a form of DLDWD (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss). Their last match was a 1-1 draw against Australia. Before that, they secured a 4-1 win against Jordan and a 0-0 draw against Norway.

Statistics

Qatar averaged 2.06 goals scored and 1.56 goals conceded per game this season. They kept 5 clean sheets in 18 matches. Both teams scored in 11 games, and 15 matches had over 2.5 goals. At home, they average 2 goals scored and 0.71 goals conceded per game.

Switzerland performed with an average of 2.33 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded per game across 6 matches. They recorded 4 clean sheets and both teams scored in 2 games. In 3 matches, over 2.5 goals were scored. Away from home, they averaged 3 goals scored and 1 goal conceded per game.

Key Players

For Qatar, key players include: Akram Afif with 3 goals in his last 5 games. EdmĆ­lson Junior contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 4 games. Yusuf Abdurisag scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist in his last 5 games.

For Switzerland, notable players are: Breel Embolo with 3 goals in his last 5 games. Dan Ndoye scored 2 goals in his last 2 games. Granit Xhaka was involved in 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games.

Goalkeepers

Qatar's goalkeeper Mahmoud Abunada featured in 5 of the last 5 games and has kept 5 clean sheets this season.

For Switzerland, Gregor Kobel was in goal for 4 of the last 5 games and has recorded 4 clean sheets this season.

Influences

Qatar averages 2 goals scored and 0.71 goals conceded per home game.

Switzerland averages 3 goals scored and 1 goal conceded per away game.

The match will be played on grass.

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