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World Cup06/13/2026, 01:00 AM

United States – Paraguay4 : 1

Why the model thinks so

United States
0.94
Total xG
1.69
Paraguay
0.75
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorUnited StatesParaguay
Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean−2.12
Attack strength (1.43x league average)+1.83
Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean−0.80
Attack strength (1.87x league average)+0.51
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)+0.30
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)−0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)+0.20
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.1 season average)+0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 37 vs 16, 21 places gap)−0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)+0.09
Standings advantage (pos 16 vs 37, 21 places gap)+0.07

Key factors

  • The mathematical analysis predicts a very tight match with 37% for a home win and 37% for a draw
  • Paraguay's counter-attacking style (31% possession) with an average of 7 shots on target could challenge the United States
  • Both teams show positive recent trends in goals scored (USA: 2.2 instead of 1.9; Paraguay: 1.8 instead of 1.3), which could indicate a more open game

Risks

    All probabilities

    Result
    United States37%
    Draw37%
    Paraguay26%
    Double chance
    United States or draw74%
    Paraguay or draw63%
    No draw63%
    Goals
    Over 1.552%
    Under 1.548%
    Over 2.524%
    Under 2.576%
    Over 3.59%
    Under 3.591%
    Both teams score
    Yes34%
    No66%

    Most likely scores

    0:0
    20%
    1:0
    16%
    1:1
    15%
    0:1
    12%
    2:0
    8%
    4:1
    Final score

    The Lab

    Patterns our system found in the data.

    1. Paraguay: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
    2. United States: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
    3. Paraguay with Álex Arce : 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (4 of 7 games)
    4. United States with Weston McKennie: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

    Lineups

    United States 4-2-3-1 · Paraguay 4-4-2

    United States
    • 24 F. Matthew
    • 16 A. Freeman
    • 3 C. Richards
    • 13 T. Ream
    • 5 A. Robinson
    • 4 T. Adams
    • 17 M. Tillman
    • 2 S. Dest
    • 8 W. McKennie
    • 10 C. Pulisic
    • 20 F. Balogun
    Paraguay
    • 12 O. Gill
    • 4 J. Cáceres
    • 15 G. Gómez Portillo
    • 3 O. Alderete Fernández
    • 6 J. Alonso Mujica
    • 8 D. Gómez Amarilla
    • 14 A. Cubas
    • 16 D. Bobadilla
    • 10 M. Almirón Rejala
    • 9 A. Sanabria Ayala
    • 19 J. Enciso
    Substitutes
    • 7 G. Reyna
    • 23 J. Scally
    • 22 M. McKenzie
    • 21 T. Weah
    • 11 B. Aaronson
    • 19 H. Wright
    • 9 R. Pepi
    • 6 A. Trusty
    • 18 M. Arfsten
    • 25 C. Brady
    • 14 S. Berhalter
    • 1 M. Turner
    • 15 C. Roldan
    • 12 M. Robinson
    • 26 A. Zendejas Saavedra
    • 24 G. Caballero
    • 20 B. Ojeda Rodríguez
    • 23 M. Galarza Fonda
    • 21 G. Ávalos Stumpfs
    • 1 R. Fernández Torres
    • 25 I. Pitta Saldívar
    • 5 F. Balbuena González
    • 7 R. Sosa
    • 17 A. Romero Gamarra
    • 2 V. Velázquez Ramos
    • 18 A. Arce Barrios
    • 13 J. Canale Domínguez
    • 26 A. Maidana Mendieta
    • 11 M. Magalhães Prado
    • 22 G. Olveira Echeverría

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