World Cup
United States - Paraguay
06/13/2026, 01:00 AM
Expected Goals
0.9
1.7
0.7
0:0
20%1:0
16%1:1
15%0:1
12%2:0
8%What influences the xG?
United States
Paraguay
The Lab
- 1Paraguay: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- 2United States: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 3Paraguay with Álex Arce : 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (4 of 7 games)
- 4United States with Weston McKennie: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
37%
Draw
37%
Away Win
26%
Goals
Over 1.5
52%
Under 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
24%
Under 2.5
76%
Over 3.5
9%
Under 3.5
91%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
74%
Away or Draw
63%
No Draw
63%
Both Score
Yes
34%
No
66%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a very tight match with 37% for a home win and 37% for a draw
- Paraguay's counter-attacking style (31% possession) with an average of 7 shots on target could challenge the United States
- Both teams show positive recent trends in goals scored (USA: 2.2 instead of 1.9; Paraguay: 1.8 instead of 1.3), which could indicate a more open game
Overview
The United States host Paraguay at SoFi Stadium. This World Cup match takes place on June 13, 2026, 2:00 AM. Both teams are starting their group stage campaign.
Form
The United States' form (WLLWL) shows 2 wins and 3 losses from their last 5 matches across all competitions. Their last result was a loss.
Paraguay's form (LWWLW) shows 3 wins and 2 losses from their last 5 matches across all competitions. Paraguay won their last game.
Statistics
The United States have scored an average of 1.5 goals per game this season and conceded 2.75 goals per game. They have kept 0 clean sheets.
Paraguay have scored an average of 0.78 goals and conceded 0.56 goals per game this season. They have kept 10 clean sheets.
In home games, the United States scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 2.75 goals.
Paraguay scored an average of 0.83 goals and conceded 1.17 goals in away matches.
Head-to-Head
There has been 1 head-to-head match between these two teams so far.
The United States won this one match, while Paraguay recorded no wins and there were no draws.
The goal difference stands at 2:1 in favor of the United States.
The last encounter on November 15, 2025, ended in a 2:1 victory for the United States.
Key Players
For the United States, Antonee Robinson (2 goals in 5 games, Avg. 7.28 rating), Folarin Balogun (2 goals in 5 games, Avg. 6.87 rating), and Christian Pulisic (1 goal, 2 assists in 5 games, Avg. 6.73 rating) could play a key role.
For Paraguay, the performances of Orlando Gill (Goalkeeper, Avg. 7.72 rating in 4 games), Damián Bobadilla (1 assist in 4 games, Avg. 7.09 rating), and Julio Enciso (1 goal, 1 assist in 4 games, Avg. 6.6 rating) are noteworthy.
Goalkeepers
The United States will start with goalkeeper Matt Freese, who played in 4 of the last 5 games and achieved an average rating of 7.00. The team has 0 clean sheets this season.
Paraguay will feature Orlando Gill, who played in 4 of the last 5 games and has an average rating of 7.72. Paraguay has recorded 10 clean sheets this season.
Influences
The United States have a record of 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses with 5:9 goals on artificial turf in 3 matches.
Paraguay have a record of 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses with 2:2 goals on artificial turf in 1 match.