World Cup
Mexico - South Africa
06/11/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.3
1.1
1:1
13%1:0
12%0:1
10%0:0
10%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Mexico
South Africa
League
The Lab
- 1Mexico: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)
- 2Mexico with Israel Reyes: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
28%
Away Win
32%
Goals
Over 1.5
68%
Under 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
68%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- Mexico's strong defensive record (avg 0.25 goals conceded) and positive scoring trend (current 2.3 goals/game vs 1.9 season avg)
- The mathematical analysis predicts Mexico as favorites with a 40% win probability and 1.25 expected goals
- Mexico's solid home record with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games, conceding only 2 goals
Risk Factors
- The mathematical model projects a close match, with South Africa having a 32% win probability and a 28% chance of a draw
- Limited historical head-to-head data, with only one previous match recorded in 2010
- The partial absence of xG data for South Africa's last 5 games impacts the completeness of advanced performance metrics
Overview
Mexico host South Africa at Estadio Banorte for a World Cup group stage match on June 11, 2026, 8:00 PM
This marks the opening of the tournament's group phase
Form
Mexico is in good form with a DDWWW record (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) in their last five matches
Recent results include a 5-1 win against Serbia, a 1-0 win against Australia, and a 2-0 win against Ghana
The streak also features two draws against Belgium (1-1) and Portugal (0-0)
South Africa's form in their last five games is DWDLD (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss)
Their latest results are a 0-0 draw against Nicaragua, a 1-2 loss to Panama, and a 1-1 draw against Panama
A 3-0 win against Rwanda and a 0-0 draw against Zimbabwe complete their record
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Mexico has scored an average of 1.88 goals per game and conceded 0.25 goals per game this season
At home, they average 1.86 goals scored and 0.29 goals conceded per home game
They have kept 6 clean sheets
South Africa has scored an average of 1.7 goals per game and conceded 0.6 goals per game
Away from home, they average 1.5 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded per away game
The team has achieved 5 clean sheets
Estadio Banorte has seen an average of 3.2 goals per game across 5 matches
Both teams scored in 60% of matches, and 60% ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
There has only been one previous head-to-head encounter between Mexico and South Africa
This match took place on June 11, 2010, and ended in a 1-1 draw
Both teams scored one goal in that fixture
Therefore, the historical record shows no clear dominance from either team
Key Players
For Mexico, Julián Quiñones (3 goals in 4 games) and Johan Vásquez (3 goals in 3 games) are notable
Brian Gutiérrez contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in 4 games
For South Africa, Jayden Adams was the most prolific scorer with 2 goals in 4 games
Khuliso Mudau provided 1 assist in 4 games
Lyle Foster played in 4 matches but recorded no goals or assists
Goalkeepers
Mexico's goalkeeper Raúl Rangel has featured in 3 of the team's last games
Mexico has recorded 6 clean sheets this season
For South Africa, Ronwen Williams was in goal for 4 of the team's last games
South Africa has achieved 5 clean sheets this season
Influences
The match will take place at Estadio Banorte on a grass surface
Estadio Banorte has averaged 3.2 goals per game in 5 recorded matches
At this stadium, both teams scored in 60% of games, and 60% ended with over 2.5 goals
Mexico scores an average of 1.86 goals per home game and concedes 0.29 goals per home game
South Africa scores an average of 1.5 goals per away game and concedes 0.75 goals per away game