Match report →
Mexico – South Africa2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Mexico
1.25
Total xG
2.34
South Africa
1.10
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Mexico | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −1.07 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.82 | |
| Attack strength (1.31x league average) | −0.81 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.77 | +0.77 |
| Attack strength (1.9x league average) | +0.69 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.50 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.38 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 55 vs 14, 41 places gap) | −0.19 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 14 vs 55, 41 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.00 |
Key factors
- Mexico's strong defensive record (avg 0.25 goals conceded) and positive scoring trend (current 2.3 goals/game vs 1.9 season avg)
- The mathematical analysis predicts Mexico as favorites with a 40% win probability and 1.25 expected goals
- Mexico's solid home record with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games, conceding only 2 goals
Risks
- The mathematical model projects a close match, with South Africa having a 32% win probability and a 28% chance of a draw
- Limited historical head-to-head data, with only one previous match recorded in 2010
- The partial absence of xG data for South Africa's last 5 games impacts the completeness of advanced performance metrics
All probabilities
Result
Mexico40%
Draw28%
South Africa32%
Double chance
Mexico or draw68%
South Africa or draw60%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:0
12%
0:1
10%
0:0
10%
2:1
8%
2:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Mexico: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)
- Mexico with Israel Reyes: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Mexico 4-1-4-1 · South Africa 5-3-2
Mexico
- 1 J. Rangel Aguilar
- 15 I. Reyes Romero
- 3 C. Montes Castro
- 5 J. Vásquez Ibarra
- 23 J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
- 6 É. Lira Méndez
- 25 R. Alvarado Hernández
- 26 B. Gutierrez
- 8 Á. Fidalgo Fernández
- 16 J. Quiñones Quiñones
- 9 R. Jiménez Rodríguez
South Africa
- 1 R. Williams
- 20 K. Mudau
- 19 N. Sibisi
- 21 I. Okon
- 14 M. Mbokazi
- 6 M. Modiba
- 4 T. Mokoena
- 13 S. Sithole
- 23 J. Adams
- 15 I. Rayners
- 9 L. Foster
Substitutes
- 4 E. Álvarez Velázquez
- 21 C. Huerta Valera
- 17 O. Pineda Alvarado
- 20 M. Chávez García
- 11 S. Giménez
- 18 O. Vaargas
- 2 J. Sánchez Ramos
- 22 G. Martínez Ayala
- 14 A. González Alba
- 12 C. Acevedo López
- 7 L. Romo Barrón
- 13 F. Ochoa Magaña
- 19 G. Mora Zambrano
- 10 E. Vega Rojas
- 24 L. Chávez Magallón
- 24 O. Makhanya
- 2 T. Matuludi
- 3 K. Ndamase
- 18 S. Kabini
- 8 T. Moremi
- 11 T. Zwane
- 12 T. Maseko
- 5 T. Mbatha
- 22 R. Goss
- 7 O. Appollis
- 10 R. Ratomo
- 17 E. Makgopa
- 16 S. Chaine
- 25 K. Sebelebele
- 26 B. Cross
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