Match report →
Jordan – Algeria1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Jordan
1.34
Total xG
2.67
Algeria
1.34
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Jordan | Algeria |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | −1.38 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +1.31 | |
| Attack strength (1.61x league average) | +1.29 | |
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.64 | +0.64 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.47 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.44 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 62 vs 38, 24 places gap) | −0.24 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.23 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 38 vs 62, 24 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a very close match with nearly equal win probabilities for both teams (35% for Jordan, 35% for Algeria)
- Algeria is in significantly better form with 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games compared to Jordan, who remained winless during this period (0 wins, 2 draws)
- Jordan showed a counter-attacking play style in their last 5 games with an average of 31% possession and 3.4 shots on target
Risks
- Jordan has suffered three consecutive losses in their last three matches, indicating poor current form
- Algeria averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
- M. Amoura is absent for Algeria due to an Unknown Injury
All probabilities
Result
Jordan35%
Draw29%
Algeria35%
Double chance
Jordan or draw65%
Algeria or draw65%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Jordan with Mousa Tamari: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Algeria with Rayan Aït-Nouri: 2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Algeria: first goal in 4 of 5 games (80%)
- Jordan: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Jordan: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Jordan 3-4-2-1 · Algeria 4-2-3-1
Jordan
- 1 Y. Abu laila
- 3 A. Musallam Naseeb
- 5 Y. Alarab
- 4 H. Abudahab
- 23 E. Haddad
- 21 N. Al-Rashdan
- 8 N. Al Rawabdeh
- 20 M. Abu Taha
- 9 A. Olwan
- 13 M. Al Mardi
- 10 M. Al Tamari
Algeria
- 23 L. Zidane
- 17 R. Belghali
- 2 A. Mandi
- 21 R. Bensebaini
- 15 R. Aït Nouri
- 14 H. Boudaoui
- 6 R. Zerrouki
- 7 R. Mahrez
- 22 I. Maza
- 10 F. Chaïbi
- 9 A. Gouiri
Substitutes
- 24 A. Azaizeh
- 12 N. Khaleel Bani Ateyah
- 19 S. Salameh Al Rosan
- 6 Amer Jamous
- 11 O. Shehade Fakhoury
- 17 S. Obaid
- 15 I. Sami
- 7 M. Abu Zrayq
- 22 A. Alfakhori
- 25 M. Mohammad Al Daoud
- 16 M. Abualnadi
- 14 R. Hasan
- 2 M. Hasan Abu Hasheesh
- 18 M. Taha
- 26 Anas Badawi
- 13 J. Hadjam
- 26 S. Chergui
- 19 N. Bentaleb
- 11 A. Hadj Moussa
- 24 Y. Titraoui
- 12 A. Benbouali
- 25 F. Ghedjemis
- 8 H. Aouar
- 20 A. Boulebina
- 1 M. Mastil
- 3 A. Abada
- 5 Z. Belaïd
- 16 O. Benbot
- 4 M. Tougai
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