Match report →
Belgium – Iran0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Belgium
2.07
Total xG
2.78
Iran
0.72
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Belgium | Iran |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.92 | |
| Attack strength (1.87x league average) | +0.69 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | −0.68 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.35 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 0.8 league avg) | +0.33 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 21, 13 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 21 vs 8, 13 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.08 | |
| Attack strength (1.74x league average) | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | −0.00 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Belgium's home strength, averaging 3.4 goals scored and only 0.6 goals conceded per game, is a clear advantage
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Belgium with a probability of 68%
- SoFi Stadium is known for high-scoring matches with an average of 4.7 goals per game and 100% BTTS and Over 2.5 goals
Risks
- Iran's shots on target averaged 1.7 in the last 5 games, indicating few attempts on goal
- Belgium's recent goal production has slowed, averaging 2.8 goals, compared to their season average of 3.6
- Several key Iranian players show a declining form trend, including Ramin Rezaeian (-1.15) and Mohammad Mohebi (-0.61)
All probabilities
Result
Belgium68%
Draw22%
Iran11%
Double chance
Belgium or draw89%
Iran or draw32%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
2:0
13%
1:1
10%
2:1
9%
3:0
9%
3:1
7%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Belgium with Kevin De Bruyne : 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Iran with Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh: 1 goals/game. Without: 4 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Iran: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Iran: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Belgium 4-2-3-1 · Iran 5-4-1
Belgium
- 1 T. Courtois
- 15 T. Meunier
- 25 N. Ngoy
- 4 B. Mechele
- 5 M. De Cuyper
- 23 N. Raskin
- 8 Y. Tielemans
- 22 A. Saelemaekers
- 7 K. De Bruyne
- 10 L. Trossard
- 9 R. Lukaku Menama
Iran
- 1 A. Safar Beiranvand
- 2 S. Hardani
- 13 M. Kanani Zadegan
- 4 S. Khalilzadeh
- 19 A. Nemati
- 3 E. Hajsafi
- 23 R. Rezaeian
- 14 S. Ghoddos
- 6 S. Ezatolahi Afagh
- 8 M. Mohebi
- 9 M. Taremi
Substitutes
- 21 T. Castagne
- 3 A. Theate
- 6 A. Witsel
- 26 M. Fernandez Pardo
- 19 D. da Silva Moreira
- 13 M. Penders
- 12 S. Lammens
- 24 A. Mvom Onana
- 17 C. De Ketelaere
- 14 D. Lukebakio
- 18 J. Seys
- 20 H. Vanaken
- 16 K. De Winter
- 10 M. Ghaedi
- 16 M. Torabi
- 17 A. Yousefi
- 7 A. Jahanbakhsh
- 15 R. Cheshmi
- 20 S. Moghanlou
- 22 S. Hosseini
- 18 A. Hosseinzadeh
- 5 M. Mohammadi
- 12 P. Niazmand
- 21 M. Ghorbani
- 26 A. Razzaghinia
- 11 A. Alipour
- 25 D. Iri
- 24 D. Eckert Ayensa
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