World Cup
Belgium - Iran
06/21/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.1
2.8
0.7
2:0
13%1:1
10%2:1
9%3:0
9%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
Belgium
Iran
The Lab
- 1Belgium with Kevin De Bruyne : 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 2Iran with Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh: 1 goals/game. Without: 4 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- 3Iran: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4Iran: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
68%
Draw
22%
Away Win
11%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
89%
Away or Draw
32%
No Draw
78%
Both Score
Yes
46%
No
54%
Key Factors
- Belgium's home strength, averaging 3.4 goals scored and only 0.6 goals conceded per game, is a clear advantage
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Belgium with a probability of 68%
- SoFi Stadium is known for high-scoring matches with an average of 4.7 goals per game and 100% BTTS and Over 2.5 goals
Risk Factors
- Iran's shots on target averaged 1.7 in the last 5 games, indicating few attempts on goal
- Belgium's recent goal production has slowed, averaging 2.8 goals, compared to their season average of 3.6
- Several key Iranian players show a declining form trend, including Ramin Rezaeian (-1.15) and Mohammad Mohebi (-0.61)
Overview
Belgium (4th place, 1 point) faces Iran (2nd place, 1 point) at SoFi Stadium in a World Cup group stage match. The game is scheduled for June 21, 2026, 7:00 PM. Both teams are currently sharing 2nd and 4th place in their group with one point each after one match played.
Form
Belgium's form across all competitions is WDWWD, which translates to 3 wins and 2 draws. Their last game was a 1-1 draw against Egypt, preceded by a 5-0 win over Tunisia. Iran shows a form of DLWWD, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Their last match was a 2-2 draw against New Zealand, following a 3-1 win against Gambia. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Belgium's season average shows a strong offense with an average of 3.63 goals scored per game and a solid defense with an average of 0.88 goals conceded. At home, they are particularly strong with an average of 3.4 goals scored and 0.6 goals conceded. Iran averages 2.19 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded per season. Away from home, their average is 2.33 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded. Iran is currently scoring more frequently (avg 2.8 goals) than their season average (avg 2.4 goals), while Belgium's goal production recently slowed (avg 2.8 goals) compared to their season average (avg 3.6 goals). SoFi Stadium averages 4.7 goals per game, with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals in all 3 matches played there.
Head-to-Head
There is no head-to-head data available for Belgium and Iran.
Key Players
For Belgium, Youri Tielemans (2 goals, 1 assist in 378 minutes), Kevin De Bruyne (1 goal, 1 assist in 348 minutes), and Nicolas Raskin (2 goals in 291 minutes) stand out due to their recent performances. For Iran, Mehdi Taremi (3 goals, 1 assist in 309 minutes), Ramin Rezaeian (2 goals, 1 assist in 124 minutes), and Mohammad Mohebi (2 goals, 1 assist in 394 minutes) are the players with the most direct goal contributions in their last 5 games.
Goalkeepers
Thibaut Courtois, the goalkeeper for Belgium, has achieved 4 clean sheets this season. Iran's goalkeeper Alireza Beiranvand recorded 9 clean sheets in the current season.
Influences
The match takes place at SoFi Stadium, which has recorded an average of 4.7 total goals per game, with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals in all 3 matches. The artificial turf surface influences the game. Belgium has a record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 0 losses with a 7:4 goal difference on artificial turf. Iran has played once on artificial turf, recording 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses with a 2:2 goal difference.