Match report →
England – Ghana0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
England
1.70
Total xG
2.37
Ghana
0.67
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | England | Ghana |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.67 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.29 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 75 vs 4, 71 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 75, 71 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for England with a 61% probability
- According to tactical metrics, England is possession-dominant (66% possession) and offensively strong with an average of 6.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Ghana's current goal production is stagnating, while their season average is 1.6 goals per game
Risks
- Only 18% of the seasonal goal production is available for England
- Ghana averaged 2.4 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating few attempts
All probabilities
Result
England61%
Draw26%
Ghana13%
Double chance
England or draw87%
Ghana or draw39%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes41%
No59%
Most likely scores
1:0
15%
2:0
14%
1:1
12%
0:0
11%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- England: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)
- England with Djed Spence: 2.4 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Ghana: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
Lineups
England 4-2-3-1 · Ghana 4-1-4-1
England
- 1 J. Pickford
- 24 R. James
- 2 E. Konsa Ngoyo
- 6 M. Guehi
- 25 D. Spence
- 8 E. Anderson
- 4 D. Rice
- 20 C. Madueke
- 10 J. Bellingham
- 18 A. Gordon
- 9 H. Kane
Ghana
- 16 B. Asare
- 26 M. Senaya
- 4 J. Adjei Adjetey
- 18 J. Opoku
- 14 G. Mensah
- 5 T. Partey
- 19 I. Williams Arthuer
- 3 C. Yirenkyi
- 8 K. Sibo
- 11 A. Semenyo
- 9 J. Ayew
Substitutes
- 26 J. Quansah
- 11 M. Rashford
- 16 K. Mainoo
- 14 J. Henderson
- 17 M. Rogers
- 19 O. Watkins
- 13 D. Henderson
- 21 E. Eze
- 7 B. Saka
- 15 D. Burn
- 23 J. Trafford
- 5 J. Stones
- 3 N. O'Reilly
- 12 T. Chalobah
- 22 I. Toney
- 1 L. Ati-Zigi
- 2 A. Seidu
- 15 E. Owusu
- 21 K. Peprah Oppong
- 24 E. Appiah Nuamah
- 7 A. Issahaku
- 10 B. Thomas-Asante
- 22 K. Sulemana
- 23 D. Luckassen
- 25 P. Adu
- 17 A. Baba
- 6 A. Mumin
- 12 J. Anang
- 13 C. Baah
- 20 A. Boakye
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