Match report →
Norway – Senegal3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Norway
1.57
Total xG
2.98
Senegal
1.40
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Norway | Senegal |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.35 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.34 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | −0.33 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 31 vs 18, 13 places gap) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (2.2 vs 3 season average) | −0.22 | |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 18 vs 31, 13 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | +0.07 | |
| 100% of goal output missing (only 0% available) |
Key factors
- Senegal's Squad Strength: CRITICAL: Only 0% of Senegal's usual starting XI strength available
- Offense vs. Defense: Norway's strong offense (season average 4.63 goals) meets Senegal's robust defense (season average 0.3 goals conceded)
- Playing Surface: Norway's positive record on artificial turf (2W-0D-0L) compared to Senegal's weaker record (1W-0D-2L)
Risks
- Norway averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
- The mathematical analysis predicts a 61% probability of both teams scoring
All probabilities
Result
Norway40%
Draw27%
Senegal33%
Double chance
Norway or draw67%
Senegal or draw60%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
2:2
6%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Norway with Andreas Schjelderup: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Senegal with Mamadou Sarr: 3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Norway: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Norway 4-3-3 · Senegal 4-2-3-1
Norway
- 1 Ø. Håskjold Nyland
- 26 J. Ryerson
- 3 K. Vassbakk Ajer
- 17 T. Heggem
- 5 D. Wolfe
- 10 M. Ødegaard
- 8 S. Berge
- 14 F. Aursnes
- 7 A. Sørloth
- 9 E. Haaland
- 20 A. Nordby Nusa
Senegal
- 16 E. Mendy
- 15 K. Diatta
- 3 K. Koulibaly
- 19 M. Niakhaté
- 25 E. Diouf
- 5 I. Gueye
- 26 P. Gueye
- 18 I. Sarr
- 8 L. Camara
- 10 S. Mané
- 11 N. Jackson
Substitutes
- 11 J. Strand Larsen
- 24 S. Langås
- 13 E. Selvik
- 22 O. Bobb
- 21 A. Schjelderup
- 6 P. Berg
- 23 J. Hauge
- 15 F. Bjørkan
- 19 T. Aasgaard
- 12 S. Tangvik
- 25 H. Falchener
- 4 L. Skiri Oestigaard
- 2 M. Thorsby
- 16 M. Pedersen
- 18 K. Thorstvedt
- 23 M. Diaw
- 9 Bamba Dieng
- 20 I. Mbaye
- 1 Y. Diouf
- 24 A. Mendy
- 2 M. Sarr
- 21 M. Diarra
- 13 I. Ndiaye
- 17 P. Sarr
- 14 I. Jakobs
- 6 P. Ciss
- 12 P. Ndiaye
- 4 A. Seck
- 7 A. Diao Diaoune
- 22 B. Sapoko Ndiaye
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