World Cup

Norway - Senegal

06/23/2026, 12:00 AM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Norway
1.6
Total xG
3.0
Senegal
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
NORSEN

Norway

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.35
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.24
Standings disadvantage (pos 31 vs 18, 13 places gap)
-0.23
Declining form (2.2 vs 3 season average)
-0.22
Attack strength (1.26x league average)
+0.07

Senegal

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.34
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
-0.33
Attack strength (1.21x league average)
+0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.14
Standings advantage (pos 18 vs 31, 13 places gap)
+0.09
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.50
+0.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Norway with Andreas Schjelderup: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Senegal with Mamadou Sarr: 3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    Norway: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

27%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Senegal's Squad Strength: CRITICAL: Only 0% of Senegal's usual starting XI strength available
  • Offense vs. Defense: Norway's strong offense (season average 4.63 goals) meets Senegal's robust defense (season average 0.3 goals conceded)
  • Playing Surface: Norway's positive record on artificial turf (2W-0D-0L) compared to Senegal's weaker record (1W-0D-2L)
Risk Factors
  • Norway averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 61% probability of both teams scoring
Overview

Norway (1st place, 3 points) faces Senegal (3rd place, 0 points) at MetLife Stadium. The World Cup match takes place on June 23, 2026, 2:00 AM. Norway won their first game, while Senegal suffered a defeat and urgently needs points.

Form

Norway shows mixed form in their last five matches with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss (Form: LDWDW). Their last game ended in a win. Senegal has a form of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five matches (Form: WWLDL). Their last game was a loss. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Norway averages 4.63 goals scored per game this season and concedes 0.63 goals. At home, the average is 4.6 goals scored and 0.4 goals conceded. Senegal has averaged 2.2 goals scored and 0.3 goals conceded. Away from home, Senegal has averaged 2.25 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded. MetLife Stadium has seen an average of 3.0 total goals per game in the last 2 matches. Both teams scored in all 2 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 of 2 games.

Head-to-Head

No previous head-to-head matches between Norway and Senegal are available in the dataset.

Key Players

For Norway, Erling Haaland with 2 season goals (3 goals, 1 assist in last 5 games) and Martin Ødegaard with 1 season assist (1 goal, 1 assist in last 5 games) are key offensive players. Julian Ryerson contributed 4 assists in his last 5 games. For Senegal, Sadio Mané is a key player with 3 goals in his last 5 games. Nicolas Jackson and Pape Gueye each scored 1 goal in their last 5 games.

Goalkeepers

For Norway, Ørjan Nyland is in goal, with 4 clean sheets this season. For Senegal, Edouard Mendy is the goalkeeper and has achieved 8 clean sheets this season.

Influences

The match will be played at MetLife Stadium on artificial turf. Norway has a positive record on artificial turf with 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses (5:1 goals). Senegal has a record of 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses (4:6 goals) on artificial turf. The venue has seen an average of 3.0 goals per game in the last 2 matches, with both teams scoring in all games.

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