Match report →
United States – Australia2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
United States
1.79
Total xG
2.67
Australia
0.89
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | United States | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (0.7 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −1.05 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | +0.67 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.58 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.38 | +0.38 |
| Rising form (2 vs 0.9 season average) | +0.34 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.28 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 25 vs 16, 9 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 16 vs 25, 9 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 100% of goal output missing (only 62% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for the United States with a 57% probability
- The United States' goal production is significantly reduced, with only 50% of their usual attacking strength available
- Australia's defensive performance this season is very strong, conceding an average of 0.44 goals per game
Risks
- Australia's starting lineup strength is reduced, with only 63% of the usual impact available
- Australia showed a counter-oriented approach in the last 5 games, averaging only 3.4 shots on target
- The United States conceded an average of 2.75 goals per game this season
All probabilities
Result
United States57%
Draw26%
Australia17%
Double chance
United States or draw83%
Australia or draw43%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Australia with Alessandro Circati: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- United States: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- United States: 37% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 19)
- United States with Joe Scally: 1.6 goals/game. Without: 3.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
Lineups
United States 3-5-2 · Australia 5-4-1
United States
- 24 F. Matthew
- 16 A. Freeman
- 3 C. Richards
- 13 T. Ream
- 2 S. Dest
- 8 W. McKennie
- 4 T. Adams
- 17 M. Tillman
- 5 A. Robinson
- 20 F. Balogun
- 9 R. Pepi
Australia
- 18 P. Beach
- 4 J. Italiano
- 3 A. Circati
- 19 H. Souttar
- 21 C. Burgess
- 5 J. Bos
- 7 M. Leckie
- 13 A. O'Neill
- 24 P. Junior Okon-Engstler
- 23 N. Velupillay
- 9 M. Toure
Substitutes
- 7 G. Reyna
- 23 J. Scally
- 22 M. McKenzie
- 21 T. Weah
- 11 B. Aaronson
- 19 H. Wright
- 6 A. Trusty
- 18 M. Arfsten
- 25 C. Brady
- 14 S. Berhalter
- 1 M. Turner
- 15 C. Roldan
- 12 M. Robinson
- 26 A. Zendejas Saavedra
- 22 J. Irvine
- 8 C. Metcalfe
- 1 M. Ryan
- 11 A. Mabil
- 17 N. Irankunda
- 20 C. Volpato
- 10 A. Hrustic
- 12 P. Izzo
- 25 L. Herrington
- 15 K. Trewin
- 16 A. Behich
- 2 M. Degenek
- 6 J. Geria
- 14 C. Devlin
- 26 T. Yengi
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