World Cup
United States - Australia
06/19/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
2.7
0.9
1:1
12%2:0
11%2:1
10%3:0
7%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
United States
Australia
League
The Lab
- 1Australia with Alessandro Circati: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 2United States: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 3United States: 37% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 19)
- 4United States with Joe Scally: 1.6 goals/game. Without: 3.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
57%
Draw
26%
Away Win
17%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
83%
Away or Draw
43%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for the United States with a 57% probability
- The United States' goal production is significantly reduced, with only 50% of their usual attacking strength available
- Australia's defensive performance this season is very strong, conceding an average of 0.44 goals per game
Risk Factors
- Australia's starting lineup strength is reduced, with only 63% of the usual impact available
- Australia showed a counter-oriented approach in the last 5 games, averaging only 3.4 shots on target
- The United States conceded an average of 2.75 goals per game this season
Overview
The United States (1st place, 3 points) host Australia (2nd place, 3 points) at Lumen Field. This is a World Cup match on June 19, 2026, 8:00 PM. Both teams have 3 points after the first matchday and are aiming for group victory.
Form
The United States' form across all competitions is LLWLW. Their last five matches include 2 wins and 3 losses. Their most recent game was a win. Australia shows a form of WWLDW with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five games. Australia also secured a win in their last match.
Statistics
The United States average 1.5 goals per home game and concede 2.75 goals. Australia impresses away from home with an average of 2.5 goals scored and only 0.67 goals conceded per game. At Lumen Field, an average of 2.8 goals are scored per game. Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 matches.
Head-to-Head
There has been 1 head-to-head match between the United States and Australia. The United States won this match 2:1 on October 15, 2025. The goal difference in direct encounters is 2:1 in favor of the United States.
Key Players
For the United States, Folarin Balogun is a key player with 2 season goals (average rating 8.13). Malik Tillman has provided 1 season assist (average rating 7.18). Ricardo Pepi contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games (average rating 7.01). On Australia's side, Paul Okon-Engstler has delivered 1 season assist (average rating 7.63). Harry Souttar scored 1 goal in the last 5 games (average rating 7.30). Mohamed Touré was involved in 1 goal in the last 5 games (average rating 6.61).
Goalkeepers
The United States goalkeeper, Matt Freese, has kept 0 clean sheets this season. On Australia's side, Patrick Beach has played in the last 2 games, conceding 0 goals. The Australia team has achieved 10 clean sheets this season.
Influences
The United States have an artificial turf record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses with 9:10 goals. Australia has achieved 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses with 2:0 goals on artificial turf. At Lumen Field, an average of 2.8 goals are scored per game, with both teams scoring in 4 out of 5 matches.