World Cup

Argentina - Austria

06/22/2026, 05:00 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Argentina
1.4
Total xG
2.7
Austria
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
ARGAUS

Argentina

Defensive strength (0.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-1.03
Attack strength (1.67x league average)
-0.62
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
+0.47
Rising form (3 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.47
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
+0.40
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 22, 19 places gap)
+0.10

Austria

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+1.16
Attack strength (1.32x league average)
-1.14
Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.80
Standings disadvantage (pos 22 vs 3, 19 places gap)
-0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match)
-0.05

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.52
+0.52
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Argentina: first goal in 7 of 7 games (100%)

  • 2
    Austria with Xaver Schlager: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    Argentina with Nico Paz: 3 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Argentina: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

29%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Both teams enter the match in strong form: Argentina with 5 consecutive wins, Austria with 4 wins and 1 draw
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a very close game, with a home win probability of 37% and an away win probability of 34%
  • The AT&T Stadium is known for high-scoring matches, with an average of 5.0 goals per game and a BTTS rate of 100% in the 2 previous games
Risk Factors
  • The pipeline predictions show a high probability of a draw at 29%
  • Austria's goal production has recently stalled with an average of 2.2 goals, while their season average is 2.7 goals
Overview

Argentina (1st place, 3 points) host Austria (2nd place, 3 points) at the AT&T Stadium

World Cup match on June 22, 2026, 7:00 PM

Both teams won their first match and are aiming for group victory

Form

Argentina shows impeccable form with 5 wins in the last 5 games (WWWWW)

Argentina last won 3-0 against Algeria

Austria is also in very good shape with 4 wins and 1 draw from the last 5 matches (DWWWW)

Austria won their last game 3-1 against Jordan

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Argentina scored an average of 1.72 goals per game this season and conceded an average of 0.56 goals

They kept 11 clean sheets and both teams scored in 5 matches

In home games, Argentina scores an average of 1.67 goals and concedes an average of 0.33 goals

Austria is very strong offensively with an average of 2.75 goals per game and a defensive record of 0.50 goals conceded

Austria recorded 4 clean sheets and both teams scored in 3 matches

In away games, Austria scores an average of 2.67 goals and concedes an average of 0.67 goals

The AT&T Stadium has averaged 5.0 goals per game so far

In all 2 games at the stadium, both teams scored and over 2.5 goals were scored

Head-to-Head

No data on head-to-head matches between the two teams is available

Key Players

For Argentina, Lionel Messi stands out with 3 season goals and an average rating of 9.67

Rodrigo De Paul showed 1 assist and a rating of 7.28 in one appearance

Lisandro MartĂ­nez achieved an average rating of 7.16 in one appearance

For Austria, Romano Schmid scored 1 goal and had a rating of 7.22 in one appearance

Xaver Schlager provided 1 assist and a rating of 7.17 in one appearance

Nicolas Seiwald showed an average rating of 7.06 in one appearance

Goalkeepers

Emiliano MartĂ­nez is Argentina's goalkeeper and has recorded 11 clean sheets this season

Alexander Schlager guards the goal for Austria and has achieved 4 clean sheets this season

Influences

The AT&T Stadium is a high-scoring venue with an average of 5.0 goals per game

In all 2 games at the stadium, both teams scored and over 2.5 goals were scored

Argentina shows defensive stability at home with an average of 1.67 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded

Austria impresses away with an average of 2.67 goals scored and only 0.67 goals conceded

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