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Argentina – Austria2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Argentina
1.38
Total xG
2.68
Austria
1.30
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Argentina | Austria |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +1.16 | |
| Attack strength (1.32x league average) | −1.14 | |
| Defensive strength (0.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −1.03 | |
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.80 | |
| Attack strength (1.67x league average) | −0.62 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.52 | +0.52 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.47 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.47 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | +0.40 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 22 vs 3, 19 places gap) | −0.23 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 22, 19 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match) | −0.05 |
Key factors
- Both teams enter the match in strong form: Argentina with 5 consecutive wins, Austria with 4 wins and 1 draw
- The mathematical analysis predicts a very close game, with a home win probability of 37% and an away win probability of 34%
- The AT&T Stadium is known for high-scoring matches, with an average of 5.0 goals per game and a BTTS rate of 100% in the 2 previous games
Risks
- The pipeline predictions show a high probability of a draw at 29%
- Austria's goal production has recently stalled with an average of 2.2 goals, while their season average is 2.7 goals
All probabilities
Result
Argentina37%
Draw29%
Austria34%
Double chance
Argentina or draw66%
Austria or draw63%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Argentina: first goal in 7 of 7 games (100%)
- Austria with Xaver Schlager: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Argentina with Nico Paz: 3 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Argentina: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Argentina 4-4-2 · Austria 4-2-3-1
Argentina
- 23 D. Martínez
- 26 N. Molina Lucero
- 13 C. Romero
- 6 L. Martínez
- 25 F. Medina
- 7 R. de Paul
- 20 A. Mac Allister
- 24 E. Fernández
- 16 T. Almada
- 10 L. Messi
- 22 L. Martínez
Austria
- 1 A. Schlager
- 5 S. Posch
- 3 K. Danso
- 8 D. Olatukunbo Alaba
- 20 K. Laimer
- 6 N. Seiwald
- 4 X. Schlager
- 18 R. Schmid
- 24 P. Wanner
- 9 M. Sabitzer
- 11 M. Gregoritsch
Substitutes
- 14 E. Palacios
- 17 G. Simeone
- 1 J. Musso
- 15 N. González
- 9 J. Álvarez
- 12 G. Rulli
- 11 G. Lo Celso
- 3 N. Alejandro Tagliafico
- 8 V. Barco
- 2 M. Senesi
- 19 N. Otamendi
- 18 N. Paz Martínez
- 21 J. López
- 5 L. Paredes
- 4 G. Montiel
- 21 P. Wimmer
- 23 M. Friedl
- 22 A. Prass
- 17 C. Chukwuemeka
- 15 P. Lienhart
- 16 P. Mwene
- 2 D. Affengruber
- 12 F. Wiegele
- 7 M. Arnautović
- 10 F. Grillitsch
- 19 D. Ljubicic
- 26 A. Schöpf
- 13 P. Pentz
- 14 S. Kalajdzic
- 25 M. Svoboda
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