World Cup
New Zealand - Egypt
06/22/2026, 01:00 AM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.6
1.3
1:1
14%1:2
8%2:1
8%0:2
6%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
New Zealand
Egypt
The Lab
- 1New Zealand with Francis de Vries: 0.4 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- 2Egypt with Emam Ashour: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
35%
Draw
30%
Away Win
35%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
65%
Away or Draw
65%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- New Zealand's goal production is critically low, with only 7% of their seasonal goal threat available
- Egypt shows a positive trend in goal production (currently 1.8 goals per game) compared to their season average (1.5 goals per game), while New Zealand's goal production is declining (currently 1.2 goals per game)
- The mathematical analysis predicts a very close match, with identical win probabilities of 35% for both teams and a 30% chance of a draw
Risk Factors
- New Zealand has one doubtful player (M. Garbett)
- There are conflicting signals regarding 'Both Teams To Score': venue history shows a BTTS rate of only 20%, while the prediction model indicates a 54% probability
- There is only a limited history of head-to-head matches between the teams, with only 1 direct encounter
Overview
New Zealand faces Egypt at BC Place Stadium. This World Cup match takes place on June 22, 2026, 2:00 AM. Both teams have collected 1 point after one game. A crucial group stage match to maintain their chances of advancing
Form
New Zealand's form from the last five games (all competitions): L-W-L-L-D. The team recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses. Their last match ended in a draw
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Egypt's form from the last five games (all competitions): W-D-W-L-D. The team achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Their last match ended in a draw
Statistics
New Zealand averages 5.8 goals scored per game and concedes an average of 0.2 goals. The team kept 4 clean sheets and both teams scored in 1 match
Egypt averages 2.0 goals scored per game and concedes an average of 0.2 goals. The team kept 8 clean sheets and both teams scored in 2 matches
At BC Place Stadium, an average of 3.4 goals were scored in the last 5 games. Both teams scored in 1 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games
New Zealand has a record of 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses (2:2 goals) on artificial turf
Egypt has a record of 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses (1:1 goals) on artificial turf
Head-to-Head
New Zealand and Egypt have only met directly once before. New Zealand won this single encounter with a 0:1 score. The last match was on March 22, 2024
Key Players
For New Zealand: Elijah Just has 2 season goals in 1 appearance. Chris Wood provided 2 season assists in 1 appearance. Finn Surman has a season average rating of 7.52
For Egypt: Emam Ashour scored 1 goal in 1 season appearance. Mohamed Salah provided 1 season assist in 1 appearance. Mohanad Lasheen has a season average rating of 7.39
Goalkeepers
New Zealand's goalkeeper Max Crocombe has achieved 4 clean sheets this season. Egypt's goalkeeper Oufa Shobeir recorded 8 clean sheets this season
Influences
BC Place Stadium has an average of 3.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 20% of the games, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 60% of the games
New Zealand's home games yield an average of 6.0 goals scored and 0.33 goals conceded
Egypt's away games result in an average of 2.0 goals scored and 0.25 goals conceded
The playing surface is artificial turf. New Zealand has a record of 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses with 2:2 goals on it. Egypt achieved 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses with 1:1 goals on artificial turf