Match report →
New Zealand – Egypt1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
New Zealand
1.28
Total xG
2.57
Egypt
1.28
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | New Zealand | Egypt |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.96 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.94 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | −0.64 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 83 vs 35, 48 places gap) | −0.23 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.11 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 35 vs 83, 48 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- New Zealand's goal production is critically low, with only 7% of their seasonal goal threat available
- Egypt shows a positive trend in goal production (currently 1.8 goals per game) compared to their season average (1.5 goals per game), while New Zealand's goal production is declining (currently 1.2 goals per game)
- The mathematical analysis predicts a very close match, with identical win probabilities of 35% for both teams and a 30% chance of a draw
Risks
- New Zealand has one doubtful player (M. Garbett)
- There are conflicting signals regarding 'Both Teams To Score': venue history shows a BTTS rate of only 20%, while the prediction model indicates a 54% probability
- There is only a limited history of head-to-head matches between the teams, with only 1 direct encounter
All probabilities
Result
New Zealand35%
Draw30%
Egypt35%
Double chance
New Zealand or draw65%
Egypt or draw65%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- New Zealand with Francis de Vries: 0.4 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Egypt with Emam Ashour: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
New Zealand 4-2-3-1 · Egypt 4-2-3-1
New Zealand
- 1 M. Crocombe
- 2 T. Payne
- 16 F. Surman
- 5 M. Boxall
- 13 L. Cacace
- 6 J. Bell
- 8 M. Stamenic
- 20 C. McCowatt
- 10 S. Singh
- 11 E. Just
- 9 C. Wood
Egypt
- 23 M. Shobeir
- 3 M. Hany Eldemerdash
- 2 Y. Ibrahim El Hanafi
- 14 H. Fathi
- 13 A. Aboel Fettoh
- 19 M. Attia
- 17 M. Lasheen
- 11 M. Zaki Abdelraouf
- 10 M. Salah
- 8 E. Ashour
- 22 O. Marmoush
Substitutes
- 4 T. Bindon
- 18 B. Waine
- 26 T. Smith
- 23 R. Thomas
- 19 B. Old
- 21 J. Randall
- 17 K. Barbarouses
- 3 F. De Vries
- 12 A. Paulsen
- 7 L. Rogerson
- 15 N. Pijnaker
- 24 C. Elliot
- 14 A. Rufer
- 25 L. Bayliss
- 22 M. Woud
- 12 H. Hassan
- 6 M. Abdelmonem
- 20 I. Adel
- 18 N. Emad
- 24 T. Alaa
- 16 A. Soliman
- 26 M. Alaa
- 21 M. Saber
- 4 H. Abdelmaguid
- 1 M. El Shenawy
- 5 R. Rabia
- 25 A. Sayed
- 7 M. Hassan
- 15 K. Ramadan Seif El Din
- 9 H. Abdel Karim
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