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Mexico – Korea Republic1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Mexico
1.43
Total xG
2.40
Korea Republic
0.97
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Mexico | Korea Republic |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.94 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.84 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.22 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.22 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Attack strength (1.3x league average) | −0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 23 vs 14, 9 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 14 vs 23, 9 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Pipeline Prediction: Mathematical analysis favors Mexico with a 46% win probability
- Critical Squad Impact (Mexico): The Mexican team has only 13% of its regular goal production available
- Form Trends: Mexico shows a positive attacking trend, while Korea Republic's goal production has recently shown a negative tendency
Risks
- Suspension for Mexico: C. Montes Castro (Defender) is missing due to a Red Card Suspension
- Surface Data (Mexico): No data is available for Mexico's performance on artificial turf
- Limited Data: Data for 'totalDuels' is missing for Mexico's last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Mexico46%
Draw30%
Korea Republic24%
Double chance
Mexico or draw76%
Korea Republic or draw54%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
0:0
11%
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Mexico: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- Korea Republic with Jae-sung Lee: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Korea Republic: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Mexico with Roberto Alvarado: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
Lineups
Mexico 4-3-3 · Korea Republic 3-4-2-1
Mexico
- 1 J. Rangel Aguilar
- 2 J. Sánchez Ramos
- 4 E. Álvarez Velázquez
- 5 J. Vásquez Ibarra
- 23 J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
- 26 B. Gutierrez
- 6 É. Lira Méndez
- 7 L. Romo Barrón
- 25 R. Alvarado Hernández
- 9 R. Jiménez Rodríguez
- 16 J. Quiñones Quiñones
Korea Republic
- 1 S. Kim
- 2 H. Lee
- 4 M. Kim
- 3 G. Lee
- 15 M. Kim
- 6 I. Hwang
- 8 S. Paik
- 22 Seol Young-Woo
- 19 K. Lee
- 10 J. Lee
- 7 H. Son
Substitutes
- 21 C. Huerta Valera
- 17 O. Pineda Alvarado
- 20 M. Chávez García
- 11 S. Giménez
- 8 Á. Fidalgo Fernández
- 18 O. Vaargas
- 15 I. Reyes Romero
- 22 G. Martínez Ayala
- 14 A. González Alba
- 12 C. Acevedo López
- 13 F. Ochoa Magaña
- 19 G. Mora Zambrano
- 10 E. Vega Rojas
- 24 L. Chávez Magallón
- 23 J. Castrop
- 11 H. Hwang
- 25 J. Eom
- 17 J. Bae
- 20 H. Yang
- 18 H. Oh
- 9 K. Cho
- 13 T. Lee
- 16 J. Park
- 5 T. Kim
- 26 D. Lee
- 24 J. Kim
- 12 B. Song
- 21 H. Cho
- 14 W. Cho
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