World Cup

Mexico - Korea Republic

06/19/2026, 01:00 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Mexico
1.4
Total xG
2.4
Korea Republic
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

11%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
MEXKR

Mexico

Defensive strength (0.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.94
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.22
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.22
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Attack strength (1.3x league average)
-0.13
Standings advantage (pos 14 vs 23, 9 places gap)
+0.06
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
+0.05
Full strength squad available

Korea Republic

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.84
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.16
Standings disadvantage (pos 23 vs 14, 9 places gap)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.05
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Mexico: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Korea Republic with Jae-sung Lee: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Korea Republic: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    Mexico with Roberto Alvarado: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

30%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: Mathematical analysis favors Mexico with a 46% win probability
  • Critical Squad Impact (Mexico): The Mexican team has only 13% of its regular goal production available
  • Form Trends: Mexico shows a positive attacking trend, while Korea Republic's goal production has recently shown a negative tendency
Risk Factors
  • Suspension for Mexico: C. Montes Castro (Defender) is missing due to a Red Card Suspension
  • Surface Data (Mexico): No data is available for Mexico's performance on artificial turf
  • Limited Data: Data for 'totalDuels' is missing for Mexico's last 5 games
Overview

Mexico hosts Korea Republic at Estadio AKRON for a World Cup match on June 19, 2026, 2:00 AM. Both teams started the tournament with a win. Mexico is in 1st place in the table with 3 points and a goal difference of +2. Korea Republic is in 2nd place with 3 points and a goal difference of +1. Both teams aim to solidify their strong group stage position.

Form

Mexico shows strong form with WDWWW in their last five games. This includes 4 wins and 1 draw. Their last result was a win. Korea Republic has a form of LLWWW in their last five games, which means 3 wins and 2 losses. Their last result was also a win. Mexico's attacking performance has been positive recently, while Korea Republic's goal production has stalled.

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Mexico scores an average of 1.88 goals per game this season and concedes only 0.25 goals. Korea Republic is offensive with an average of 2.50 goals per game, but concedes 0.50 goals. Mexico kept 6 clean sheets, while Korea Republic kept 9. In home games, Mexico averages 1.86 goals scored and 0.29 goals conceded. Korea Republic scores an average of 2.40 goals and concedes 0.30 goals in away matches. Estadio AKRON averages 2.8 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 2 out of 5 matches. More than 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 matches.

Head-to-Head

In the 2 previous head-to-head matches, Mexico has 1 win and there has been 1 draw. Korea Republic has not won any of the direct encounters. Mexico scored a total of 4 goals, while Korea Republic scored 3 goals. The last match between them ended in a 2:2 draw on September 10, 2025. Mexico has been more dominant in recent direct duels.

Key Players

For Mexico, JuliĂĄn Quiñones is crucial with 4 goals in the last 5 games and a season average rating of 8.44, RaĂșl JimĂ©nez with 2 goals in the last 5 games and a season average rating of 7.69, and Roberto Alvarado with 1 assist in the last 5 games and a season average rating of 7.88. For Korea Republic, In-beom Hwang with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games and a season average rating of 8.59, Heung-min Son with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, and Kang-in Lee with 1 assist in the last 2 games and a season average rating of 8.06 are important players.

Goalkeepers

For Mexico, RaĂșl Rangel is in goal and has achieved 6 clean sheets this season. Korea Republic has Seung-gyu Kim as their goalkeeper, who has recorded 9 clean sheets this season. Korea Republic's goalkeeper has therefore completed more games without conceding a goal.

Influences

Mexico benefits from its home advantage, with an average of 1.86 home goals scored and only 0.29 home goals conceded per game. Estadio AKRON has an average of 2.8 goals per game. Mexico has no data on performance on artificial turf. Korea Republic, however, has played one game on artificial turf, securing a 2:1 victory.

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.