World Cup

Switzerland - Bosnia and Herzegovina

06/18/2026, 07:00 PM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
Switzerland
1.8
Total xG
2.7
Bosnia and Herzegovina
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

12%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
SWIBAH

Switzerland

Attack strength (2.24x league average)
+1.03
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.63
Standings advantage (pos 17 vs 73, 56 places gap)
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.04
Full strength squad available

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.45
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.31
Declining form (1 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.25
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
-0.23
Standings disadvantage (pos 73 vs 17, 56 places gap)
-0.15
100% of goal output missing (only 71% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Switzerland with Remo Freuler: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Switzerland: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

60%

Draw

25%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

40%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 60% probability of a home win for Switzerland
  • Switzerland has only 7% of its usual goal production available, representing a critical weakening
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina is on a streak of five consecutive draws
Risk Factors
  • The Bosnia and Herzegovina squad achieves only 71% of its usual starting eleven strength, which is rated as critical
  • Lack of head-to-head data makes analysis more challenging
  • Both teams' performance on artificial turf is uncertain due to missing data
Overview

Switzerland hosts Bosnia and Herzegovina at SoFi Stadium in a World Cup match. The game takes place on June 18, 2026, 9:00 PM. Both teams have 1 point after one matchday, with Switzerland in 1st place and Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2nd place in the table. Crucial points are at stake in the group stage of the tournament.

Form

Switzerland's form in the last five games (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) is LDWDD

This translates to 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss

Switzerland has drawn their last two matches consecutively

Bosnia and Herzegovina is unbeaten in their last five matches, with a form of DDDDD

This means 0 wins, 5 draws, and 0 losses

The team has drawn their last five matches consecutively, showing a consistently poor form

Statistics

Switzerland has scored an average of 2.33 goals per game this season and conceded 0.33 goals

The team kept 4 clean sheets and saw over 2.5 goals in 3 matches

At home, the Swiss are particularly strong with an average of 2.2 home goals scored and only 0.2 home goals conceded per game

Bosnia and Herzegovina averages 1.9 goals scored and 0.9 goals conceded per game

The team kept 3 clean sheets, while over 2.5 goals were scored in 5 matches

Away from home, Bosnia and Herzegovina scored an average of 1.83 goals and conceded 0.67 goals per game

Matches at SoFi Stadium have seen an average of 4.5 total goals per game, with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals occurring in all 2 matches

Head-to-Head

The provided dataset does not list any historical head-to-head matches between these two teams

Key Players

For Switzerland, Breel Embolo is an important attacking player with 1 season goal and 4 goals in his last 5 games, despite a declining form trend

Dan Ndoye has scored 2 goals in his last 3 appearances and shows a stable form trend

Granit Xhaka, a midfielder, contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games and his form trend is stable

For Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sead Kolasinac, a defender, is noteworthy with 1 assist in the last 5 games and a stable form trend

Edin Džeko, an attacker, scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist in his last 2 appearances

Ermedin Demirovic, also an attacker, scored once in the last 3 games and shows a rising form trend

Goalkeepers

Gregor Kobel, the goalkeeper for Switzerland, has recorded 4 clean sheets this season and an average rating of 6.76 in his last 5 games

Nikola Vasilj of Bosnia and Herzegovina achieved 3 clean sheets and an average rating of 6.79 in his last 5 appearances

Influences

Switzerland holds a clear home advantage, scoring an average of 2.2 goals and conceding only 0.2 goals at home

SoFi Stadium is known for high-scoring matches with an average of 4.5 goals per game and a 100% BTTS and Over 2.5 rate

No specific data is available for either team's performance on artificial turf

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