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Switzerland – Bosnia and Herzegovina4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Switzerland
1.85
Total xG
2.67
Bosnia and Herzegovina
0.83
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Switzerland | Bosnia and Herzegovina |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (2.24x league average) | +1.03 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.63 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.45 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.31 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.25 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | −0.23 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 73 vs 17, 56 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 17 vs 73, 56 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 100% of goal output missing (only 71% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a 60% probability of a home win for Switzerland
- Switzerland has only 7% of its usual goal production available, representing a critical weakening
- Bosnia and Herzegovina is on a streak of five consecutive draws
Risks
- The Bosnia and Herzegovina squad achieves only 71% of its usual starting eleven strength, which is rated as critical
- Lack of head-to-head data makes analysis more challenging
- Both teams' performance on artificial turf is uncertain due to missing data
All probabilities
Result
Switzerland60%
Draw25%
Bosnia and Herzegovina15%
Double chance
Switzerland or draw85%
Bosnia and Herzegovina or draw40%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
12%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
4:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Switzerland with Remo Freuler: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Switzerland: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Switzerland 4-3-1-2 · Bosnia and Herzegovina 4-4-2
Switzerland
- 1 G. Kobel
- 3 S. Widmer
- 4 N. Elvedi
- 5 M. Akanji
- 13 R. Rodríguez Araya
- 20 M. Aebischer
- 10 G. Xhaka
- 8 R. Freuler
- 22 F. Rieder
- 7 B. Embolo
- 11 D. Ndoye
Bosnia and Herzegovina
- 1 N. Vasilj
- 7 A. Dedić
- 18 N. Katić
- 4 T. Muharemovic
- 5 S. Kolašinac
- 15 A. Memić
- 6 B. Tahirovic
- 14 I. Šunjić
- 19 K. Alajbegović
- 10 E. Demirović
- 11 E. Džeko
Substitutes
- 24 A. Amenda
- 16 C. Fassnacht
- 21 M. Keller
- 9 J. Manzambi
- 25 L. Jaquez
- 12 Y. Mvogo
- 15 D. Sow
- 17 R. Vargas
- 18 E. Cömert
- 6 D. Zakaria Lako Lado
- 19 N. Okafor
- 23 M. Amdouni
- 14 A. Jasari
- 26 C. Itten
- 23 H. Tabakovic
- 8 A. Gigovic
- 9 S. Baždar
- 16 A. Hadžiahmetović
- 20 E. Bajraktarevic
- 24 A. Malic
- 21 S. Radeljić
- 22 M. Zlomislić
- 25 J. Lukić
- 12 M. Jurkas
- 13 I. Bašić
- 3 D. Hadzikadunic
- 2 N. Mujakić
- 17 D. Burnic
- 26 E. Mahmić
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