World Cup

Panama - Croatia

06/23/2026, 11:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Panama
1.5
Total xG
3.0
Croatia
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

2:2

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
PANCRO

Panama

Standings disadvantage (pos 29 vs 9, 20 places gap)
-0.28
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.14

Croatia

Attack strength (1.33x league average)
+0.42
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.14
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 29, 20 places gap)
+0.10
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
-0.07

League

High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match)
+1.23
+1.23
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Croatia with Martin Baturina: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Panama: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Croatia: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Panama with José Córdoba: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (4 of 6 games)

  • 5
    Panama: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

27%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis suggests a balanced match, with a 36% home win and a 36% away win probability
  • Croatia boasts a strong season record with an average of 3.25 goals per game
  • Panama has increased its goal production in recent form to an average of 1.8 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Croatia's goal production has recently stalled at an average of 1.4 goals per game, compared to their season average of 2.8 goals
  • No historical head-to-head data is available for these teams
Overview

Panama (3rd place, 0 points) host Croatia (4th place, 0 points) at BMO Field

World Cup match on June 23, 2026, 11:00 PM

Both teams are looking for their first points in this tournament

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Panama's form across all competitions: WLWDL

Panama recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

Their last match resulted in a loss

Croatia's form across all competitions: WLLWL

Croatia has achieved 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 games

Their last match also resulted in a loss

Statistics

Panama scored an average of 1.9 goals per game and conceded 0.5 goals

Croatia has a higher scoring average of 3.25 goals per game and also conceded 0.5 goals

Panama kept 6 clean sheets this season, while Croatia kept 5

At BMO Field, an average of 2.8 goals were scored in 5 matches

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches, and 2 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There are no historical head-to-head matches between Panama and Croatia in the provided dataset

Key Players

For Panama, Andrés Andrade (season average rating 7.67), Carlos Harvey (1 goal in last 5 games, rising form) and José Luis Rodríguez (rising form) are key players

For Croatia, Ivan Perišić (2 goals, 4 assists in last 5 games, rising form), Luka Modrić (1 goal in last 4 games, rising form) and Josko Gvardiol (rising form) are showing good performances

Goalkeepers

Panama's goalkeeper Orlando Mosquera kept 6 clean sheets this season

Croatia's goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic recorded 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

BMO Field saw an average of 2.8 goals in the last 5 matches

Stadium statistics show that both teams scored in 80% of matches

The pitch surface is grass

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