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Panama – Croatia0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Panama
1.48
Total xG
2.97
Croatia
1.48
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Panama | Croatia |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.23 | +1.23 |
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | +0.42 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 29 vs 9, 20 places gap) | −0.28 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 29, 20 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | −0.07 |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis suggests a balanced match, with a 36% home win and a 36% away win probability
- Croatia boasts a strong season record with an average of 3.25 goals per game
- Panama has increased its goal production in recent form to an average of 1.8 goals per game
Risks
- Croatia's goal production has recently stalled at an average of 1.4 goals per game, compared to their season average of 2.8 goals
- No historical head-to-head data is available for these teams
All probabilities
Result
Panama36%
Draw27%
Croatia36%
Double chance
Panama or draw64%
Croatia or draw64%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Croatia with Martin Baturina: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Panama: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Croatia: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Panama with José Córdoba: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (4 of 6 games)
- Panama: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Panama 5-4-1 · Croatia 4-2-3-1
Panama
- 22 O. Mosquera
- 23 M. Murillo Bermudez
- 13 J. Ramos Díaz
- 3 J. Cordoba Chambers
- 16 A. Andrade Cedeño
- 2 C. Blackman
- 6 C. Martinez
- 14 C. Harvey Cesneros
- 11 E. Bárcenas Herrera
- 7 J. Rodríguez Francis
- 17 J. Fajardo Nelson
Croatia
- 1 D. Livaković
- 2 J. Stanisic
- 6 J. Šutalo
- 3 M. Pongracic
- 4 J. Gvardiol
- 10 L. Modrić
- 8 M. Kovačić
- 24 M. Pasalic
- 16 M. Baturina
- 14 I. Perišić
- 26 P. Musa
Substitutes
- 26 J. Gutiérrez Cornejo
- 20 A. Godoy
- 24 A. Londoño
- 15 E. Davis Grajales
- 21 C. Yanis Velasco
- 19 A. Quintero Medina
- 9 T. Rodríguez Mena
- 10 I. Díaz De León
- 18 C. Waterman Ruiz
- 12 C. Samudio Murillo
- 4 F. Escobar Mendieta
- 5 E. Fariña
- 1 L. Mejía Cajar
- 8 A. Carrasquilla Alcázar
- 25 R. Miller Molina
- 18 K. Jakić
- 9 A. Kramarić
- 22 L. Vušković
- 20 I. Matanovic
- 5 D. Ćaleta-Car
- 21 L. Sučić
- 11 A. Budimir
- 12 I. Pandur
- 15 M. Pašalić
- 17 P. Sučić
- 23 D. Kotarski
- 7 N. Moro
- 25 M. Erlić
- 19 T. Fruk
- 13 N. Vlašić
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