World Cup

Brazil - Haiti

06/20/2026, 12:30 AM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Brazil
3.2
Total xG
3.8
Haiti
0.6
Most Likely Scores

3:0

13%

4:0

10%

3:1

7%

5:0

7%

2:1

7%
What influences the xG?
BRAHAI

Brazil

Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
-0.44
Attack strength (1.66x league average)
+0.31
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 87, 81 places gap)
+0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.20
Rising form (2.6 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.20
Full strength squad available

Haiti

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 0.7 league avg)
+0.56
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.12
Standings disadvantage (pos 87 vs 6, 81 places gap)
-0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.03

League

High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match)
+1.36
+1.36
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Brazil: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

87%

Draw

10%

Away Win

3%

Goals

Over 1.5

90%

Under 1.5

10%

Over 2.5

73%

Under 2.5

27%

Over 3.5

52%

Under 3.5

48%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

97%

Away or Draw

13%

No Draw

90%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 87% probability and 3.24 expected goals for Brazil
  • Brazil's offensive output is critically weakened by missing key players, with only 4% of seasonal goal production available
  • Brazil shows better form (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) compared to Haiti's current weak phase (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
Risk Factors
  • Haiti showed limited offensive threat in their last 5 games, averaging 3.0 shots on target
  • The limited data on head-to-head matches results in an incomplete historical comparison
  • Haiti is currently in a phase of two consecutive losses
Overview

Brazil (3rd place, 1 point) faces Haiti (4th place, 0 points) at Lincoln Financial Field in a World Cup match on June 20, 2026, 1:30 AM

Brazil aims for an improved league position after drawing their first match

Haiti needs to secure their first points after an opening loss

Form

Brazil's current form (LWWWD) shows 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last 5 games

Brazil's last result was a draw

Haiti's form (LDWLL) includes 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 games

Haiti has suffered 2 consecutive losses recently

Form explanation: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Brazil averages 1.33 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded per season

In home games, Brazil averages 1.29 goals scored and 0.36 goals conceded

Haiti has a season average of 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 goals conceded

In away games, Haiti averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded

Brazil kept 6 clean sheets this season, while Haiti managed 5

Analysis of goal production shows Brazil is currently scoring more frequently (2.6 goals) than their season average (1.7 goals)

Haiti's goal production is currently slowing down (1.2 goals), with a season average of 1.9 goals

Matches at Lincoln Financial Field so far have seen an average of 1.0 total goals per game, with no instances of both teams scoring or over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

No direct head-to-head matches between Brazil and Haiti are available in the provided dataset

Key Players

For Brazil, Vinicius Junior is a key player with 1 season goal and 3 goals plus 1 assist in the last 5 games, showing a rising form trend

Raphinha also shows a rising form trend and contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Casemiro contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games, with a rising form trend

For Haiti, Jean-Ricner Bellegarde is a key player with a season average rating of 7.2

Martin Expérience has a season average rating of 7.11

Hannes Delcroix shows a season average rating of 7.07

Goalkeepers

Brazil's goalkeeper, Alisson, has a season average rating of 6.69

Brazil recorded 6 clean sheets this season

Haiti's goalkeeper, Johny Placide, has a season average rating of 6.43 and a rising form trend

Haiti recorded 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

Brazil has scored an average of 1.29 goals and conceded only 0.36 goals in home games, suggesting a home advantage

Lincoln Financial Field has seen an average of 1.0 goals per game, with neither team scoring in all matches nor exceeding 2.5 goals

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