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Brazil – Haiti3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Brazil
3.24
Total xG
3.80
Haiti
0.56
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Brazil | Haiti |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.36 | +1.36 |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 0.7 league avg) | +0.56 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | −0.44 | |
| Attack strength (1.66x league average) | +0.31 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 87, 81 places gap) | +0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 87 vs 6, 81 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 87% probability and 3.24 expected goals for Brazil
- Brazil's offensive output is critically weakened by missing key players, with only 4% of seasonal goal production available
- Brazil shows better form (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) compared to Haiti's current weak phase (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
Risks
- Haiti showed limited offensive threat in their last 5 games, averaging 3.0 shots on target
- The limited data on head-to-head matches results in an incomplete historical comparison
- Haiti is currently in a phase of two consecutive losses
All probabilities
Result
Brazil87%
Draw10%
Haiti3%
Double chance
Brazil or draw97%
Haiti or draw13%
No draw90%
Goals
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.573%
Under 2.527%
Over 3.552%
Under 3.548%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
3:0
13%
4:0
10%
3:1
7%
5:0
7%
2:1
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Brazil: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Brazil 4-3-3 · Haiti 5-4-1
Brazil
- 1 A. Becker
- 13 D. da Silva
- 4 M. Aoás Corrêa
- 3 G. dos Santos Magalhães
- 16 D. dos Santos Justino de Melo
- 8 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
- 5 C. Casimiro
- 20 L. Tolentino Coelho de Lima
- 11 Raphinha
- 9 M. Carneiro Da Cunha
- 7 V. Júnior
Haiti
- 1 J. Placide
- 2 C. Arcus
- 22 J. Duverne
- 4 R. Ade
- 5 H. Delcroix
- 8 M. Expérience
- 21 J. Casimir
- 17 D. Jean Jacques
- 10 J. Bellegarde
- 15 R. Providence
- 20 F. Pierrot
Substitutes
- 19 E. Moreira de Sousa
- 25 Thiago
- 22 G. Martinelli Silva
- 2 É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
- 14 G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
- 23 E. Santana de Moraes
- 26 R. Rocha
- 17 F. Tavares
- 24 R. Ibañez da Silva
- 6 A. Lobo Silva
- 21 L. Rosa da Silva
- 12 W. Pereira da Silva
- 18 D. dos Santos de Oliveira
- 15 L. Pereira
- 18 W. Isidor
- 16 L. Joseph
- 7 D. Etienne Jr.
- 11 L. Deedson
- 24 W. Paugain
- 23 J. Duverger
- 3 K. Thermoncy
- 19 Y. Fortune
- 9 D. Nazon
- 6 C. Sainte
- 12 A. Pierre
- 13 M. Lacroix
- 14 G. Metusala
- 26 W. Pierre
- 25 D. Simon
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