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Netherlands – Sweden5 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Netherlands
1.91
Total xG
3.05
Sweden
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Netherlands | Sweden |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −1.33 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.79 | +0.79 |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.42 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.40 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.40 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.29 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 2.4 season average) | −0.29 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 32 vs 7, 25 places gap) | −0.20 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | +0.18 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 32, 25 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| 37% of goal output missing (only 93% available) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Netherlands with 54% probability
- Netherlands show strong season performance with an average of 3.38 goals scored per game and only 0.5 goals conceded
- Sweden has improved offensively in recent matches, currently scoring an average of 2.8 goals per game
Risks
- Netherlands' offensive goal production has recently stalled with an average of 1.4 goals per game, while the season average is 2.6
- Sweden concede an average of 1.88 goals per game this season and have not achieved any clean sheets
All probabilities
Result
Netherlands54%
Draw25%
Sweden21%
Double chance
Netherlands or draw79%
Sweden or draw46%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
5:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sweden with Isak Hien: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Netherlands with Denzel Dumfries: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Sweden: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Netherlands: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Netherlands 4-3-3 · Sweden 3-1-4-2
Netherlands
- 1 B. Verbruggen
- 22 D. Dumfries
- 6 J. van Hecke
- 4 V. van Dijk
- 15 M. van de Ven
- 8 R. Gravenberch
- 21 F. de Jong
- 14 T. Reijnders
- 18 D. Malen
- 19 B. Brobbey
- 11 C. Gakpo
Sweden
- 23 K. Nordfeldt
- 2 G. Lagerbielke
- 4 I. Hien
- 3 V. Nilsson Lindelöf
- 16 J. Karlström
- 21 A. Bernhardsson
- 10 B. Nygren
- 18 Y. Ayari
- 5 G. Gudmundsson
- 17 V. Gyökeres
- 9 A. Isak
Substitutes
- 12 M. Wieffer
- 23 M. Flekken
- 2 L. Geertruida
- 13 R. Roefs
- 7 J. Kluivert
- 24 C. Summerville
- 5 N. Aké
- 25 J. Hato
- 3 M. de Roon
- 16 G. Til
- 9 W. Weghorst
- 17 N. Lang
- 20 T. Koopmeiners
- 10 M. Depay
- 19 M. Svanberg
- 20 E. Smith
- 8 D. Svensson
- 15 C. Starfelt
- 14 H. Ekdal
- 12 V. Johansson
- 1 J. Widell Zetterström
- 11 A. Elanga
- 7 L. Bergvall
- 13 K. Sema
- 25 G. Nilsson
- 26 T. Ali
- 22 B. Zeneli
- 6 H. Johansson
- 24 E. Stroud
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