World Cup

Netherlands - Sweden

06/20/2026, 05:00 PM

5 : 1
Expected Goals
Netherlands
1.9
Total xG
3.1
Sweden
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

3:1

6%

1:2

6%
What influences the xG?
NETSWE

Netherlands

Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-1.33
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.29
Declining form (1.4 vs 2.4 season average)
-0.29
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
+0.18
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 32, 25 places gap)
+0.13
37% of goal output missing (only 93% available)

Sweden

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.42
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.40
Rising form (2.8 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.40
Standings disadvantage (pos 32 vs 7, 25 places gap)
-0.20

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.79
+0.79
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sweden with Isak Hien: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Netherlands with Denzel Dumfries: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Sweden: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Netherlands: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

25%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Netherlands with 54% probability
  • Netherlands show strong season performance with an average of 3.38 goals scored per game and only 0.5 goals conceded
  • Sweden has improved offensively in recent matches, currently scoring an average of 2.8 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Netherlands' offensive goal production has recently stalled with an average of 1.4 goals per game, while the season average is 2.6
  • Sweden concede an average of 1.88 goals per game this season and have not achieved any clean sheets
Overview

Netherlands host Sweden at NRG Stadium in a crucial World Cup match on June 20, 2026, 7:00 PM. Sweden is in 1st place with 3 points, while Netherlands is in 3rd place with 1 point. Netherlands will aim to stay close to the top and keep their qualification chances alive.

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Netherlands' form in their last five matches is WDLWD

This includes 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

The last result was a draw

Sweden's form in their last five matches is WWLDW

This consists of 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

The last match ended in a win

Statistics

Netherlands average 3.38 goals scored per game and concede 0.5 goals per game this season

In 5 home games, they scored 3.4 goals per game and conceded 0.2 goals

Sweden average 1.25 goals scored per game and concede 1.88 goals per game

In 5 away games, they scored 1.2 goals per game and conceded 1.8 goals

The NRG Stadium has seen an average of 5.0 goals per game across 2 matches

Both teams scored in 2 out of 2 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 out of 2 games

Head-to-Head

In 2 head-to-head matches, Netherlands dominate with 1 win

Sweden has not won any direct encounters, with 1 draw recorded

Netherlands scored a total of 3 goals, while Sweden scored 1 goal

The last meeting on October 10, 2017, saw Netherlands win 2:0

Key Players

For Netherlands, Ryan Gravenberch (Midfielder) is an important player with 2 season assists and 2 assists in the last 5 games

Virgil van Dijk (Defender) contributed with 1 season goal and 3 goals in the last 5 games

Cody Gakpo (Attacker) scored 2 goals in his last 5 games

For Sweden, Alexander Isak (Attacker) is crucial with 1 season goal, 2 season assists, 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games

Viktor Gyökeres (Attacker) scored 1 season goal, 1 season assist, 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Yasin Ayari (Midfielder) scored 2 season goals and 2 goals in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Bart Verbruggen is the goalkeeper for Netherlands

Netherlands have kept 5 clean sheets this season

Kristoffer Nordfeldt is the goalkeeper for Sweden

Sweden has not kept any clean sheets this season

Influences

Netherlands have a record of 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses (2:2 goals) on artificial turf

No data is available for Sweden on artificial turf

The NRG Stadium shows a high goal involvement with an average of 5.0 goals per game and both teams scoring in 2 out of 2 matches

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