La Liga
Athletic Club - Elche
02/20/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.3
3.2
0.9
2:0
11%2:1
10%1:1
10%3:0
8%3:1
7%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
67%
Draw
20%
Away Win
12%
Goals
Over 1.5
84%
Under 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
63%
Under 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
40%
Under 3.5
60%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
88%
Away or Draw
33%
No Draw
80%
Both Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Key Factors
- Clear favorite according to predictions: The mathematical model gives Athletic Club a 67% win probability and expects 2.31 goals for the home team
- Elche's defensive vulnerability: Elche concedes an average of 2.44 goals away from home and has not kept a single clean sheet on the road this season
- Contrasting form curves: Athletic Club has won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Elche is winless in their last 5 games (3 losses, 2 draws)
Risk Factors
- Key player missing for Athletic: With Nico Williams not nominated, only 63% of the team's usual goal threat is available
- Athletic's inconsistent home offense: Despite being favorites, Athletic Club scores only an average of 1.15 goals per game at home
Overview
Athletic Club (9th place, 31 points) hosts Elche (16th place, 25 points) at San Mamés Barria
Form
La Liga match on February 20, 2026, 9:00 PM
Statistics
Current form Athletic Club: DWWLW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in the last 5 games)
Head-to-Head
The mathematical analysis favors Athletic Club with a 67% probability of winning
Key Players
Current form Elche: DLLLD (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in the last 5 games)
Goalkeepers
Head-to-head: In the last 5 duels, Athletic Club won 2 times, Elche won 1 time, with 2 draws
Influences
In total, 6 goals were scored for Athletic Club and 3 for Elche in these matches