World Cup
Canada - Qatar
06/18/2026, 10:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.9
1.2
1:1
13%2:1
10%2:0
8%1:2
6%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Canada
Qatar
League
The Lab
- 1Canada with Jonathan Osorio : 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 2Canada: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 3Qatar: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4Canada: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
49%
Draw
27%
Away Win
24%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
33%
Under 3.5
67%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
76%
Away or Draw
51%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Canada's active goal production is severely limited, with only 17% of seasonal output available
- Qatar's defense is extremely vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 4.5 goals per game
- Canada averages 4.2 shots on target in their last 5 games, compared to Qatar's 2.2
Risk Factors
- Qatar's tactical metrics show an average of only 2.2 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating few attacking opportunities
- Canada has recorded four draws in their last five matches, highlighting difficulties in converting opportunities into wins
- The data availability for xG values in Qatar's last 5 games is limited
Overview
Canada hosts Qatar at BC Place Stadium for a crucial World Cup group stage encounter
The match is scheduled for June 18, 2026, 10:00 PM
Both teams are on 1 point, with Canada in 3rd place and Qatar in 4th, having drawn their first match
The mathematical analysis indicates Canada as a slight favorite with a 49% home win probability
Form
Canada's form in their last five games is DDWDD, comprising 1 win and 4 draws (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Canada has drawn their last two matches consecutively
Qatar's form is DWLDD, with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last five outings
Qatar also ended their last two matches with a draw
Statistics
Canada averages 1.2 goals scored and 0.6 goals conceded per game this season
The team has kept 3 clean sheets this season
Qatar averages 2.06 goals scored but concedes 1.56 goals per game
Qatar has kept 5 clean sheets in 18 games this season
In away games, Qatar conceded an average of 4.5 goals per match
BC Place Stadium has seen an average of 3.2 total goals per game in the last 5 matches
At this stadium, both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games (40%), and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games (60%)
Key Players
For Canada, Cyle Larin, Stephen Eustaquio, and Richie Laryea are important players
Cyle Larin scored 1 goal in 5 games and has a current average rating of 6.52
Stephen Eustaquio has a current average rating of 6.98 in 5 games
Richie Laryea shows a current average rating of 6.68 in 4 games
For Qatar, Akram Afif, Homam Al-Amin, and Boualem Khoukhi are notable
Akram Afif scored 3 goals in 5 games and has a current average rating of 7.38
Homam Al-Amin provided 1 assist in 5 games with a current average rating of 6.70
Boualem Khoukhi scored 1 goal in 5 games and has a current average rating of 6.72
Goalkeepers
Canada's goalkeeper, Maxime Crépeau, has achieved 3 clean sheets this season
Qatar's goalkeeper, Mahmoud Abunada, has achieved 5 clean sheets this season
Qatar's goalkeeper has achieved 3 clean sheets in 4 away games
Influences
Canada has played all their season games at home, scoring 1.2 goals and conceding 0.6 goals per home game
Qatar conceded an average of 4.5 goals per away game
The artificial turf at BC Place Stadium has no specific influence on team performance in the available data