Match report →
Canada – Qatar6 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Canada
1.74
Total xG
2.91
Qatar
1.17
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Canada | Qatar |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.57x league average) | −0.99 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.78 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.66 | +0.66 |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | −0.43 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.28 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 53 vs 26, 27 places gap) | −0.21 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 26 vs 53, 27 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Canada's active goal production is severely limited, with only 17% of seasonal output available
- Qatar's defense is extremely vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 4.5 goals per game
- Canada averages 4.2 shots on target in their last 5 games, compared to Qatar's 2.2
Risks
- Qatar's tactical metrics show an average of only 2.2 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating few attacking opportunities
- Canada has recorded four draws in their last five matches, highlighting difficulties in converting opportunities into wins
- The data availability for xG values in Qatar's last 5 games is limited
All probabilities
Result
Canada49%
Draw27%
Qatar24%
Double chance
Canada or draw76%
Qatar or draw51%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
6%
2:2
6%
6:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Canada with Jonathan Osorio : 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Canada: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Qatar: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Canada: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
Canada 4-4-2 · Qatar 4-3-3
Canada
- 16 M. Crépeau
- 2 A. Johnston
- 4 L. De Fougerolles
- 13 D. Cornelius
- 22 R. Laryea
- 17 T. Buchanan
- 8 I. Koné
- 7 S. Antunes Eustáquio
- 20 A. Ahmed
- 10 J. David
- 9 C. Larin
Qatar
- 1 M. Abunad
- 13 A. Al Oui
- 2 P. Correia
- 16 B. Khoukhi
- 14 H. Ahmed
- 5 J. Abdulsallam
- 23 A. Al Haj Madibo
- 4 G. Laye
- 8 E. da Silva
- 15 Y. Youssef
- 11 A. Afif
Substitutes
- 6 M. Choiniere
- 19 A. Davies
- 12 T. Oluwaseyi
- 15 M. Bombito
- 11 L. Millar
- 18 O. Goodman
- 24 P. Akinpelu
- 25 N. Saliba
- 23 N. Sigur
- 5 J. Waterman
- 26 J. Nelson
- 21 J. Osorio
- 1 D. St Clair
- 14 J. Shaffelburg
- 3 L. Mendes
- 20 A. Fathi
- 18 S. Al-Braik
- 26 M. Almanai
- 25 E. El Hussain Mohi aldin
- 17 A. Alganehi
- 21 S. Zakaria Hassan
- 12 K. Boudiaf
- 10 H. Al Heidos
- 19 A. Abdulla
- 24 T. Jamshid
- 22 M. Barsham
- 9 M. Muntari
- 6 A. Abdullah
- 7 A. Abdelmotaal
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