Match report →
Czech Republic – South Africa1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Czech Republic
1.53
Total xG
2.40
South Africa
0.87
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Czech Republic | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.48x league average) | −0.94 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | +0.53 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.52 | +0.52 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.19 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 55 vs 39, 16 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 39 vs 55, 16 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Czech Republic with a 51% probability and 1.53 expected goals
- Czech Republic is currently scoring more frequently (2.6) than their season average (2.3), while South Africa's goal production is faltering (0.8) compared to their season average of 1.5
- The Czech Republic team has shown strong attacking capabilities in their last 5 games with an average of 5.4 shots on target
Risks
- For Czech Republic, only 5% of the total squad's goal production is covered by the current starting lineup based on available data
- For South Africa, only 0% of the total squad's goal production is covered by the current starting lineup based on available data
- South Africa must cope without S. Sithole and T. Zwane due to Red Card Suspensions
All probabilities
Result
Czech Republic51%
Draw29%
South Africa20%
Double chance
Czech Republic or draw80%
South Africa or draw49%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
0:0
11%
2:0
11%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Czech Republic with Robin Hranac: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Czech Republic: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Czech Republic 3-5-2 · South Africa 4-3-3
Czech Republic
- 1 M. Kovář
- 3 T. Holeš
- 4 R. Hranáč
- 7 L. Krejčí
- 5 V. Coufal
- 8 V. Darida
- 12 L. Červ
- 18 M. Sadílek
- 24 A. Sojka
- 10 P. Schick
- 9 A. Hložek
South Africa
- 1 R. Williams
- 20 K. Mudau
- 21 I. Okon
- 14 M. Mbokazi
- 6 M. Modiba
- 5 T. Mbatha
- 4 T. Mokoena
- 23 J. Adams
- 12 T. Maseko
- 15 I. Rayners
- 7 O. Appollis
Substitutes
- 15 P. Šulc
- 22 T. Souček
- 21 D. Douděra
- 16 J. Staněk
- 19 T. Chorý
- 2 D. Zima
- 6 ?. Chaloupek
- 13 M. Chytil
- 17 L. Provod
- 26 D. Višinský
- 23 L. Horníček
- 20 J. Zelený
- 11 J. Kuchta
- 25 H. Sochůrek
- 9 L. Foster
- 24 O. Makhanya
- 2 T. Matuludi
- 3 K. Ndamase
- 18 S. Kabini
- 8 T. Moremi
- 22 R. Goss
- 19 N. Sibisi
- 10 R. Ratomo
- 17 E. Makgopa
- 16 S. Chaine
- 25 K. Sebelebele
- 26 B. Cross
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →