World Cup

Czech Republic - South Africa

06/18/2026, 04:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Czech Republic
1.5
Total xG
2.4
South Africa
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
CRSA

Czech Republic

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.19
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.14
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.13
Standings advantage (pos 39 vs 55, 16 places gap)
+0.11
Full strength squad available

South Africa

Attack weakness (0.48x league average)
-0.94
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
+0.53
Standings disadvantage (pos 55 vs 39, 16 places gap)
-0.15
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.11
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
+0.03
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.52
+0.52
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Czech Republic with Robin Hranac: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Czech Republic: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

29%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Czech Republic with a 51% probability and 1.53 expected goals
  • Czech Republic is currently scoring more frequently (2.6) than their season average (2.3), while South Africa's goal production is faltering (0.8) compared to their season average of 1.5
  • The Czech Republic team has shown strong attacking capabilities in their last 5 games with an average of 5.4 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • For Czech Republic, only 5% of the total squad's goal production is covered by the current starting lineup based on available data
  • For South Africa, only 0% of the total squad's goal production is covered by the current starting lineup based on available data
  • South Africa must cope without S. Sithole and T. Zwane due to Red Card Suspensions
Overview

Czech Republic host South Africa at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in a World Cup match on June 18, 2026, 4:00 PM

Czech Republic currently stands in 3rd place with 0 points, while South Africa is in 4th place with 0 points

Both teams are looking for their first points in the tournament

Form

Czech Republic's current form across all competitions is WDDWL

This translates to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 games

Their last match resulted in a loss

South Africa's form is DLDDL, with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses

South Africa also lost their last game

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Czech Republic scored an average of 2.2 goals per game this season and conceded 1.2 goals

At home, they average 2.33 goals scored and 0.83 goals conceded

South Africa averaged 1.7 goals per game and conceded 0.6 goals

Away from home, they average 1.5 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded

In 5 matches at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium, an average of 2.4 total goals per game were scored

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

There is no data available for previous head-to-head encounters between these two teams

Key Players

For Czech Republic, Patrik Schick shows strong form with 3 goals in his last 4 games and a rising form trend

Vladimír Coufal provided 1 assist in his last 4 games and his form is rising

Vladimír Darida scored 1 goal in 3 games and has a high average rating of 7.39

For South Africa, Oswin Appollis was in top form with 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 3 games, and his form trend is sharply rising

Jayden Adams scored 1 goal in his last 4 games with a rising form

Thalente Mbatha also scored 1 goal in his last 4 games and his form is rising

Goalkeepers

Czech Republic's goalkeeper Matej Kovar has a season average rating of 6.72 and showed rising form in his last 3 games with a rating of 7.06

South Africa's Ronwen Williams has a season average rating of 6.72, and his form is stable with a rating of 6.62 in his last 4 games

Both teams have kept 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf

Czech Republic has a record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss (1:2 goals) on artificial turf

South Africa has a record of 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss (3:3 goals) on artificial turf

The venue, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, averages 2.4 goals per game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.