World Cup

Uruguay - Cape Verde Islands

06/21/2026, 10:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Uruguay
1.8
Total xG
2.4
Cape Verde Islands
0.6
Most Likely Scores

1:0

15%

2:0

15%

1:1

11%

0:0

10%

3:0

9%
What influences the xG?
URUCVI

Uruguay

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.48
Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.48
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.19
Standings advantage (pos 15 vs 70, 55 places gap)
+0.13
Full strength squad available

Cape Verde Islands

Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
-0.58
Rising form (2.2 vs 0.7 season average)
+0.46
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.33
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 70 vs 15, 55 places gap)
-0.10
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cape Verde Islands: first goal in 4 of 5 games (80%)

  • 2
    Uruguay: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 3
    Uruguay with Emiliano MartĂ­nez: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

67%

Draw

24%

Away Win

9%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

91%

Away or Draw

33%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

37%

No

63%

Key Factors
  • Uruguay is predicted to win with a 67% probability according to mathematical analysis
  • Only 5% of Uruguay's season goal production is available
  • Cape Verde Islands show positive form with 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games
Risk Factors
  • Uruguay averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Limited data availability as no previous head-to-head matches are found
Overview

Uruguay (1st place, 1 point) faces Cape Verde Islands (4th place, 1 point) at Hard Rock Stadium

The World Cup match takes place on June 21, 2026, 11:00 PM

Both teams have one point after one matchday and are fighting for a good starting position in the group stage

Form

Uruguay's form (DLDDD) shows 0 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 games

Cape Verde Islands (LDWWD) achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Uruguay averaged 1.22 goals scored per game and conceded 0.67 goals per game this season

In home games, Uruguay averaged 1.23 goals scored and conceded 0.31 goals

Cape Verde Islands averaged 1.60 goals scored per game and conceded 0.80 goals per game this season

In away games, Cape Verde Islands averaged 1.67 goals scored while conceding 1.33 goals

Hard Rock Stadium has seen an average of 2.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 1 out of 1 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 0 out of 1 games

Head-to-Head

No head-to-head matches between Uruguay and Cape Verde Islands are available in the dataset

Key Players

For Uruguay, Maxi AraĂșjo (1 season goal, 2 goals and 1 assist in last 5 games), Federico Valverde (1 assist in last 5 games), and AgustĂ­n Canobbio (1 goal in last 5 games) are important players

For Cape Verde Islands, Vozinha (season average rating 8.96), Diney Borges (season average rating 7.71), and Garry Rodrigues (1 goal in last 5 games) are crucial

Goalkeepers

Uruguay's goalkeeper Fernando Muslera has recorded 10 clean sheets this season and shows a rising form

For Cape Verde Islands, goalkeeper Vozinha has accumulated 7 clean sheets this season, but his form is declining

Influences

Uruguay shows a strong defensive performance at home, conceding an average of 0.31 goals

Cape Verde Islands are offensively potent away from home, with 1.67 goals scored per game

Hard Rock Stadium has an average goal rate of 2.0 goals per game

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