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Uruguay – Cape Verde Islands2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Uruguay
1.84
Total xG
2.40
Cape Verde Islands
0.56
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Uruguay | Cape Verde Islands |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | −0.58 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.48 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.48 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 0.7 season average) | +0.46 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 15 vs 70, 55 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 70 vs 15, 55 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Uruguay is predicted to win with a 67% probability according to mathematical analysis
- Only 5% of Uruguay's season goal production is available
- Cape Verde Islands show positive form with 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games
Risks
- Uruguay averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Limited data availability as no previous head-to-head matches are found
All probabilities
Result
Uruguay67%
Draw24%
Cape Verde Islands9%
Double chance
Uruguay or draw91%
Cape Verde Islands or draw33%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes37%
No63%
Most likely scores
1:0
15%
2:0
15%
1:1
11%
0:0
10%
3:0
9%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cape Verde Islands: first goal in 4 of 5 games (80%)
- Uruguay: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Uruguay with Emiliano Martínez: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Uruguay 4-1-4-1 · Cape Verde Islands 4-1-4-1
Uruguay
- 23 N. Muslera Micol
- 13 G. Varela Olivera
- 3 S. Cáceres Ramos
- 16 M. Olivera Miramontes
- 25 J. Sanabria Magole
- 5 M. Ugarte Ribeiro
- 14 A. Canobbio Graviz
- 6 R. Bentancur Colmán
- 8 F. Valverde Dipetta
- 20 M. Araújo Vilches
- 21 F. Viñas Barboza
Cape Verde Islands
- 1 J. Évora Dias
- 22 S. Moreira
- 4 R. Lopes
- 3 E. Monteiro Sanches Borges
- 13 S. Lopes Cabral
- 6 K. Gonçalves Pereira de Pina
- 20 R. Mendes da Graça
- 18 T. Gomes Arcanjo
- 10 J. Monteiro Alvarenga
- 11 G. Mendes Rodrigues
- 9 G. Benchimol Tavares
Substitutes
- 2 J. Giménez de Vargas
- 24 S. Bueno Sciutto
- 11 F. Pellistri Rebollo
- 26 R. Zalazar Martínez
- 9 D. Núñez Ribeiro
- 19 R. Aguirre Soto
- 22 J. Piquerez Moreira
- 1 S. Rochet Álvarez
- 7 D. De La Cruz Arcosa
- 12 S. Mele Castanero
- 15 E. Martínez Toranza
- 17 M. Viña Susperreguy
- 18 P. Rodríguez Bravo
- 5 L. Costa
- 14 D. Duarte
- 26 H. Oliveira Alves Varela
- 25 K. Pires
- 21 N. da Costa Jóia
- 15 L. Duarte
- 17 W. Semedo Johnson
- 19 D. Rocha Livramento do Rosario
- 8 J. Moreira Fernandes
- 7 J. Borges Cabral
- 23 C. Dos Santos
- 12 M. Salomão Brazão Rosa
- 24 W. Cardoso Pina
- 16 J. Semedo Monteiro
- 2 I. dos Santos Tavares
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