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Colombia – Congo DR1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Colombia
1.70
Total xG
2.40
Congo DR
0.70
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Colombia | Congo DR |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.49 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 60 vs 13, 47 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 13 vs 60, 47 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.08 | |
| Attack strength (1.36x league average) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 60% probability, with 1.70 expected goals for Colombia versus 0.70 for Congo DR
- Colombia displays strong current form with 3 consecutive wins in their last 5 matches
- Congo DR exhibits critically low active goal production, with only 6% of their goal threat available
Risks
- Congo DR averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Colombia has a negative record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss on artificial turf
All probabilities
Result
Colombia60%
Draw26%
Congo DR14%
Double chance
Colombia or draw86%
Congo DR or draw40%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:0
14%
2:0
13%
1:1
12%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Colombia: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- Colombia: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Colombia: 47% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 15)
- Colombia with Luis Suárez: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Colombia 4-3-3 · Congo DR 5-3-2
Colombia
- 12 C. Vargas Gil
- 2 D. Muñoz Mejía
- 23 D. Sánchez Mina
- 3 J. Lucumí Bonilla
- 17 J. Mojica Palacio
- 14 G. Puerta Molano
- 16 J. Lerma Solís
- 11 J. Arias Andrade
- 10 J. Rodríguez Rubio
- 25 L. Suárez Charris
- 7 L. Díaz Marulanda
Congo DR
- 1 L. Mpasi-Nzau
- 2 A. Wan-Bissaka
- 22 C. Mbemba Mangulu
- 4 A. Tuanzebe
- 3 S. Kapuadi
- 26 A. Masuaku
- 6 N. Mukau
- 8 S. Moutoussamy
- 25 E. Kayembe
- 17 C. Bakambu
- 20 Y. Wissa
Substitutes
- 22 D. Machado Mena
- 19 J. Hernández Suárez
- 6 R. Rios
- 13 Y. Mina González
- 15 J. Portilla Orozco
- 26 A. Gomez
- 18 W. Ditta Pérez
- 21 J. Campaz
- 20 J. Quintero Paniagua
- 8 J. Carrascal Guardo
- 4 S. Arias Naranjo
- 5 K. Castaño Gil
- 9 J. Córdoba Copete
- 1 D. Ospina Ramírez
- 24 Á. Montero Perales
- 18 C. Pickel
- 9 B. Kibambe Cipenga
- 14 N. Sadiki
- 12 J. Kayembe Ditu
- 16 T. Fayulu
- 24 G. Kalulu Kyatengwa
- 11 G. Kakuta
- 10 T. Bongonda Mbul'Ofeko Batombo
- 23 S. Banza
- 5 D. Batubinsika
- 15 A. Tshibola
- 7 N. Mbuku
- 13 M. Elia
- 19 F. Kalala Mayele
- 21 L. Epolo Matthieu
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