World Cup

Colombia - Congo DR

06/24/2026, 02:00 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Colombia
1.7
Total xG
2.4
Congo DR
0.7
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

2:0

13%

1:1

12%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
COLCD

Colombia

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.49
Standings advantage (pos 13 vs 60, 47 places gap)
+0.11
Attack strength (1.36x league average)
+0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.03

Congo DR

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.18
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 60 vs 13, 47 places gap)
-0.13
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.08
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Colombia: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Colombia: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Colombia: 47% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 15)

  • 4
    Colombia with Luis SuĂĄrez: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

60%

Draw

26%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

40%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 60% probability, with 1.70 expected goals for Colombia versus 0.70 for Congo DR
  • Colombia displays strong current form with 3 consecutive wins in their last 5 matches
  • Congo DR exhibits critically low active goal production, with only 6% of their goal threat available
Risk Factors
  • Congo DR averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Colombia has a negative record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss on artificial turf
Overview

Colombia (2nd place, 3 points) face Congo DR (3rd place, 1 point) at Estadio AKRON

This World Cup group stage match is scheduled for June 24, 2026, 2:00 AM

Colombia aims to extend their group lead, while Congo DR needs crucial points to advance

Form

Colombia's form across all competitions is LLWWW, recording 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

They currently have 3 consecutive wins

Congo DR shows a form of WDWDD, with 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses in their last 5 games, remaining unbeaten in 5 matches

Statistics

Colombia averages 1.56 goals scored per game and concedes 1.0 goals per game this season

At home, they average 1.6 goals scored and 0.7 goals conceded

Congo DR averages 1.42 goals scored per game and concedes just 0.58 goals per game

Away, they average 1.43 goals scored and 0.57 goals conceded

Estadio AKRON has seen an average of 2.2 total goals per game across 5 matches

Both teams scored in 20% of games, and 40% finished with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

No historical head-to-head matches between these teams are available in the dataset

Key Players

For Colombia, Luis DĂ­az has shown strong performances with 1 goal and 1 assist this season, along with 2 goals and 3 assists in his last 5 games

Daniel Muñoz contributed 1 goal this season with an average rating of 7.48

Gustavo Puerta recorded 1 assist this season with an average rating of 7.16

For Congo DR, Yoane Wissa scored 1 goal this season and in his last 5 games, with a season average rating of 7.23

Arthur Masuaku provided 1 assist this season

Chancel Mbemba had an average rating of 6.87

Goalkeepers

Camilo Vargas (Colombia) kept 7 clean sheets this season

Lionel Mpasi-Nzau (Congo DR) also recorded 7 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf

Colombia has a record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss on artificial turf with a goal difference of 0:1

Congo DR, however, has a positive record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses with a 5:2 goal difference on artificial turf

The Estadio AKRON has seen an average of 2.2 total goals per game in 5 matches

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