World Cup

Germany - Côte d'Ivoire

06/20/2026, 08:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Germany
2.2
Total xG
3.6
Côte d'Ivoire
1.4
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

3:1

7%

2:2

7%

1:2

6%

3:0

5%
What influences the xG?
GERCD

Germany

Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
+1.11
Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.97
Attack strength (2.05x league average)
-0.66
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match)
+0.34
Rising form (3.8 vs 2.7 season average)
+0.34
Standings advantage (pos 12 vs 44, 32 places gap)
+0.15

Côte d'Ivoire

Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.97
Standings disadvantage (pos 44 vs 12, 32 places gap)
-0.25
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Attack strength (1.62x league average)
+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.04
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.03

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.59
+0.59
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Germany: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Côte d'Ivoire with Franck Kessié: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    Germany: first goal in 4 of 5 games (80%)

  • 4
    Côte d'Ivoire: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 5
    Germany: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

23%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

69%

Under 2.5

31%

Over 3.5

48%

Under 3.5

52%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

68%

No

32%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 53% for Germany
  • Côte d'Ivoire boasts an exceptional defensive record, with 10 clean sheets this season
  • Both teams are in excellent form, with 5 consecutive wins each
Risk Factors
  • The mathematical prediction for 'Both teams to score' is 68%, which contradicts Côte d'Ivoire's flawless defensive record of 10 clean sheets
  • Several key Germany players, including Kai Havertz, Nico Schlotterbeck, Felix Nmecha, Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz, Nathaniel Brown, show a declining form trend
Overview

Germany host Côte d'Ivoire at BMO Field

World Cup match on June 20, 2026, 9:00 PM

Both teams have collected 3 Points after the first match

Germany is in 1st place and Côte d'Ivoire in 2nd place

The match is crucial for the group stage

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Germany's Form (all competitions): WWWWW

Overall 5 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses in the last 5 matches

The last 5 results for Germany: Germany won 7-1 against Curacao, 2-1 against United States, 4-0 against Finland, 2-1 against Ghana, and 4-3 against Switzerland

Côte d'Ivoire's Form (all competitions): WWWWW

Overall 5 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses in the last 5 matches

The last 5 results for Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire won 1-0 against Ecuador, 2-1 against France, 1-0 against Scotland, 4-0 against Korea Republic, and 2-0 against Oman

Both teams show outstanding form with 5 consecutive wins each

Statistics

Germany scores Avg. 2.67 goals per game and concedes Avg. 0.50 goals conceded

At home, the average is 2.60 goals scored and 0.20 goals conceded

Côte d'Ivoire impresses with Avg. 2.50 goals per game and has conceded 0.00 goals conceded throughout the season

Away from home, they score Avg. 2.50 goals and have conceded 0.00 goals conceded

Germany currently scores more frequently (3.80) than their season average (2.65)

Côte d'Ivoire currently scores more frequently (2.25) than their season average (2.14)

The BMO Field records Avg. 2.80 goals per game

The probability that Both teams scored is 80%

Key Players

Key players for Germany:

Kai Havertz (Attacker): 2 goals, 0 assists, 8.18 Avg. rating with a declining form trend

Nico Schlotterbeck (Defender): 1 goal, 0 assists, 8.39 Avg. rating with a declining form trend

Joshua Kimmich (Midfielder): 0 goals, 2 assists, 8.16 Avg. rating with stable form

Key players for Côte d'Ivoire:

Amad Diallo (Attacker): 1 goal, 0 assists, 7.98 Avg. rating with a declining form trend

Yan Diomande (Attacker): 0 goals, 0 assists, 8.21 Avg. rating with a declining form trend

Wilfried Singo (Defender): 0 goals, 1 assist, 7.75 Avg. rating with a declining form trend

Goalkeepers

Germany's Goalkeeper Manuel Neuer has recorded 4 clean sheets this season with a rising form trend

Côte d'Ivoire's Goalkeeper Yahia Fofana impresses with 10 clean sheets this season with stable form

Influences

Germany has a home advantage with 2.60 goals scored and only 0.20 goals conceded per home game

Côte d'Ivoire shows strong away performance with 2.50 goals scored and 0.00 goals conceded per away game

The BMO Field has an average of 2.80 goals per match

The probability of Both teams scored is 80% at this venue

The match will be played on a grass surface

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