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Germany – Côte d'Ivoire2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Germany
2.15
Total xG
3.56
Côte d'Ivoire
1.41
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Germany | Côte d'Ivoire |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | +1.11 | |
| Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.97 | |
| Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.97 | |
| Attack strength (2.05x league average) | −0.66 | |
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.59 | +0.59 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | |
| Rising form (3.8 vs 2.7 season average) | +0.34 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 44 vs 12, 32 places gap) | −0.25 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 12 vs 44, 32 places gap) | +0.15 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Attack strength (1.62x league average) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.03 |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 53% for Germany
- Côte d'Ivoire boasts an exceptional defensive record, with 10 clean sheets this season
- Both teams are in excellent form, with 5 consecutive wins each
Risks
- The mathematical prediction for 'Both teams to score' is 68%, which contradicts Côte d'Ivoire's flawless defensive record of 10 clean sheets
- Several key Germany players, including Kai Havertz, Nico Schlotterbeck, Felix Nmecha, Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz, Nathaniel Brown, show a declining form trend
All probabilities
Result
Germany53%
Draw23%
Côte d'Ivoire24%
Double chance
Germany or draw76%
Côte d'Ivoire or draw47%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.548%
Under 3.552%
Both teams score
Yes68%
No32%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
3:1
7%
2:2
7%
1:2
6%
3:0
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Germany: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Côte d'Ivoire with Franck Kessié: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Germany: first goal in 4 of 5 games (80%)
- Côte d'Ivoire: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)
- Germany: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
Lineups
Germany 4-2-3-1 · Côte d'Ivoire 4-1-4-1
Germany
- 1 M. Neuer
- 6 J. Kimmich
- 4 J. Tah
- 15 N. Schlotterbeck
- 18 N. Brown
- 23 F. Nmecha
- 5 A. Pavlović
- 19 L. Sané
- 10 J. Musiala
- 17 F. Wirtz
- 7 K. Havertz
Côte d'Ivoire
- 1 Y. Fofana
- 5 W. Singo
- 7 K. Odilon
- 20 E. Agbadou
- 3 G. Konan
- 18 I. Sangaré
- 15 A. Traoré
- 8 F. Kessié
- 26 C. Inao Oulaï
- 11 Y. Diomande
- 9 A. Bonny
Substitutes
- 25 F. Ouedraogo
- 22 D. Raum
- 12 O. Baumann
- 13 P. Groß
- 3 W. Anton
- 14 M. Beier
- 8 L. Goretzka
- 21 A. Nübel
- 26 D. Undav
- 16 A. Stiller
- 9 J. Leweling
- 20 N. Amiri
- 2 A. Rüdiger
- 24 M. Thiaw
- 11 N. Woltemade
- 24 B. Touré
- 6 S. Fofana
- 19 N. Pépé
- 12 S. Wahi
- 17 G. Doué
- 10 S. Adingra
- 22 E. Guessand
- 2 O. Diomande
- 23 A. Lafont
- 21 O. N'Dicka
- 13 C. Operi
- 4 J. Seri
- 25 P. Guiagon
- 16 M. Kone
- 14 O. Diakité
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