Match report →
Portugal – Uzbekistan5 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Portugal
2.79
Total xG
3.35
Uzbekistan
0.56
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Portugal | Uzbekistan |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 2.8 league avg) | −2.03 | |
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +1.00 | +1.00 |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | −0.66 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.45 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.40 | |
| Declining form (1.8 vs 2.9 season average) | −0.34 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 54, 49 places gap) | +0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 54 vs 5, 49 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a clear home win for Portugal with a probability of 83%
- Uzbekistan's offensive capabilities are severely limited, with only about 4% of their seasonal goal production from active players available
- Portugal is undefeated in their last 5 games (3 wins, 2 draws), while Uzbekistan has suffered 3 consecutive losses
Risks
- Uzbekistan generated an average of only 3.2 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, indicating limited chance creation
- The absence of J. Masharipov due to an Inguinal Hernia could further weaken Uzbekistan
- Uzbekistan started the World Cup season with a loss and currently holds 4th place in the group with 0 points
All probabilities
Result
Portugal83%
Draw13%
Uzbekistan4%
Double chance
Portugal or draw96%
Uzbekistan or draw17%
No draw87%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.565%
Under 2.535%
Over 3.543%
Under 3.557%
Both teams score
Yes41%
No59%
Most likely scores
2:0
14%
3:0
13%
4:0
9%
2:1
8%
3:1
7%
5:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Portugal with Pedro Neto: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Uzbekistan: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Portugal 4-2-3-1 · Uzbekistan 3-4-2-1
Portugal
- 1 D. Meireles Costa
- 20 J. Cavaco Cancelo
- 3 R. Santos Gato Alves Dias
- 13 R. Palma Veiga
- 25 N. Mendes
- 15 J. Gonçalves Neves
- 23 V. Machado Ferreira
- 18 P. Lomba Neto
- 8 B. Fernandes
- 11 J. Sequeira
- 7 C. Ronaldo
Uzbekistan
- 12 A. Nematov
- 2 A. Khusanov
- 18 A. Kakhramonjon
- 5 R. Ashurmatov
- 24 B. Karimov
- 9 O. Khamrobekov
- 7 O. Shukurov
- 13 S. Nasrullayev
- 19 A. Ganiev
- 22 A. Fayzullayev
- 14 E. Shomurodov
Substitutes
- 24 S. Costa
- 19 G. Ganchinho Guedes
- 9 G. Ramos
- 12 J. Malheiro de Sá
- 5 J. Dalot Teixeira
- 10 B. Silva
- 6 M. Nunes
- 4 T. Araújo
- 14 G. Inácio
- 16 F. Machado Mota de Castro Trincão
- 22 R. Dantas da Silva
- 26 F. Conceição
- 2 N. Cabral Semedo
- 17 R. Conceição Leão
- 21 R. Da Silva Neves
- 23 S. Esanov
- 8 J. Iskanderov
- 1 U. Yusupov
- 25 A. Ulmasaliev
- 26 J. O'rozov
- 10 R. Jiyanov
- 17 D. Khamdamov
- 15 U. Eshmuradov
- 6 A. Mozgovoy
- 11 O. Urunov
- 3 K. Alidjanov
- 4 F. Sayfiyev
- 21 I. Sergeev
- 16 B. Ergashev
- 20 A. Amonov
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →