Match report →
Spain – Saudi Arabia4 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Spain
2.07
Total xG
3.20
Saudi Arabia
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Spain | Saudi Arabia |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.59x league average) | +1.49 | |
| Attack weakness (0.62x league average) | −1.16 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | −1.08 | |
| Defensive strength (0.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −1.02 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.98 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.53 | +0.53 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.52 | |
| Declining form (2.3 vs 3.1 season average) | −0.24 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 59 vs 1, 58 places gap) | −0.20 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 59, 58 places gap) | +0.14 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.04 |
Key factors
- High Home Win Probability: Mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Spain with a 58% probability
- Spain's Strong Offense and Form: Spain is unbeaten in their last 5 games and averages 3.5 season goals per game
- Spain's Tactical Advantage: Spain demonstrates a possession-dominant style with 67% possession and an average of 5.4 shots on target
Risks
- Spain has recently shown a lower goal production, with 2.3 goals per game compared to their season average of 3.1
- The match is on artificial turf; Spain has only played 1 game (1 draw) on this surface, and no data is available for Saudi Arabia
All probabilities
Result
Spain58%
Draw23%
Saudi Arabia19%
Double chance
Spain or draw81%
Saudi Arabia or draw42%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
4:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Spain with Álex Baena: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Saudi Arabia with Firas Al-Buraikan: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Spain: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Saudi Arabia: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Spain 4-3-3 · Saudi Arabia 5-4-1
Spain
- 23 U. Simón Mendibil
- 12 P. Porro Sauceda
- 22 P. Cubarsí Paredes
- 14 A. Laporte
- 24 M. Cucurella
- 10 D. Olmo Carvajal
- 16 Rodri
- 20 P. López
- 19 L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
- 21 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
- 15 A. Rodríguez
Saudi Arabia
- 21 M. Al Owais
- 12 S. Abdul Hamid
- 4 A. Al Amri
- 3 A. Lajami
- 5 H. Al Tambakti
- 24 Moteb Al-Harbi
- 7 M. Aljuwayr
- 15 A. Alkhaibari
- 6 N. Al Dawsari
- 10 S. Al Dawsari
- 9 F. Albirakan
Substitutes
- 3 A. Grimaldo García
- 7 F. Torres García
- 4 E. García
- 9 Pablo Gaviria
- 13 J. Pons
- 5 M. Llorente Moreno
- 2 M. Pubill Pagès
- 17 N. Williams Arthuer
- 8 F. Ruiz Peña
- 26 B. Iglesias Quintas
- 25 V. Muñoz Villanueva
- 11 Y. Jesús Pino Santos
- 18 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
- 1 D. Raya Martin
- 6 M. Merino Zazón
- 23 M. Kanno
- 19 A. Al Hamdan
- 11 S. Al Shehri
- 2 A. Majrashi
- 16 Z. Aljohani
- 17 K. Al Ghannam
- 20 S. Madash
- 1 N. Alaqidi
- 13 N. Boushal
- 8 A. Yahya
- 26 M. Al Shamat
- 25 J. Abdullatif Ahm
- 14 H. Kadesh
- 18 A. Hejji
- 22 A. Al Kassar
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