World Cup
Tunisia - Japan
06/21/2026, 04:00 AM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.6
1.3
1:1
14%1:2
8%2:1
8%0:2
6%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
Tunisia
Japan
League
The Lab
- 1Japan: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 2Tunisia with Omar Rekik: 0.2 goals/game. Without: 1.7 goals/game (4 of 7 games)
- 3Japan: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
35%
Draw
30%
Away Win
35%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
65%
Away or Draw
65%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Japan's strong form of 4 wins and 1 draw contrasts with Tunisia's 3 consecutive losses and overall form of 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses
- Japan's low active goal share, with only 4% of their seasonal goal contribution available, could impact their attacking strength despite their good form
- Japan's offensive tactical approach with an average of 5.0 shots on target in recent games, compared to Tunisia's counter-oriented style and 2.0 shots on target
Risk Factors
- Tunisia's recent defensive vulnerability, allowing an average of 2.75 goals per game in recent matches
- The venue's history of high-scoring matches, with an average of 3.8 total goals per game, and all 5 previous games seeing both teams score and over 2.5 goals
- Tunisia's low recent goal production of 0.5 goals per game, falling below their season average of 2.2 goals
Overview
Tunisia (4th place, 0 points) host Japan (3rd place, 1 point) in a World Cup group stage match at Estadio BBVA Bancomer. The match is scheduled for June 21, 2026, 5:00 AM. Both teams urgently need points to keep their qualification hopes alive
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Tunisia shows a negative trend with a form of WDLLL
The team recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses recently
The last three matches all ended in defeat
Japan, on the other hand, is in excellent form with WWWWD
The team secured 4 wins and 1 draw in their last five games
Their last match ended in a draw, preceded by four consecutive wins
Statistics
Tunisia scored an average of 2.20 goals per game this season and conceded an average of 0.00 goals
At home, they average 2.17 goals scored and 0.00 goals conceded
Japan displays a strong offense with an average of 3.38 goals per game and conceded only an average of 0.19 goals
Away from home, Japan scores an average of 3.38 goals and concedes an average of 0.25 goals
At Estadio BBVA Bancomer, the last 5 matches saw an average of 3.8 goals per game
In all 5 of these matches, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
There are no head-to-head matches between Tunisia and Japan in the dataset
Key Players
For Tunisia, the following players stand out
Hannibal in midfield with 1 assist and a season average rating of 7.27
Montassar Talbi in defense with a season average rating of 7.15
Omar Rekik in defense with 1 season goal and an average rating of 6.62
For Japan, these players are crucial
Keito Nakamura in attack with 1 season goal and an average rating of 7.71 (2 goals, 2 assists in last 5 games)
Daichi Kamada in midfield with 1 season goal and an average rating of 7.59
Junya Ito in attack with 1 goal in the last 5 games and a season average rating of 6.98
Goalkeepers
Tunisia's goalkeeper Aymen Dahmen has kept 10 clean sheets this season
Japan's goalkeeper Zion Suzuki, with a season average rating of 6.70, recorded 13 clean sheets
Influences
Tunisia shows a home goal average of 2.17 and 0.00 goals conceded
Japan displays a strong away offensive value of 3.38 goals scored and only 0.25 goals conceded
Estadio BBVA Bancomer is known for high-scoring matches
An average of 3.8 goals are scored per game
In all five of the last matches at this venue, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals