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Tunisia – Japan0 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Tunisia
1.28
Total xG
2.57
Japan
1.28
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Tunisia | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.2x league average) | −1.63 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +1.26 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.79 | +0.79 |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.37 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 46 vs 19, 27 places gap) | −0.23 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | −0.17 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 19 vs 46, 27 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 0.6 season average) | −0.04 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Japan's strong form of 4 wins and 1 draw contrasts with Tunisia's 3 consecutive losses and overall form of 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses
- Japan's low active goal share, with only 4% of their seasonal goal contribution available, could impact their attacking strength despite their good form
- Japan's offensive tactical approach with an average of 5.0 shots on target in recent games, compared to Tunisia's counter-oriented style and 2.0 shots on target
Risks
- Tunisia's recent defensive vulnerability, allowing an average of 2.75 goals per game in recent matches
- The venue's history of high-scoring matches, with an average of 3.8 total goals per game, and all 5 previous games seeing both teams score and over 2.5 goals
- Tunisia's low recent goal production of 0.5 goals per game, falling below their season average of 2.2 goals
All probabilities
Result
Tunisia35%
Draw30%
Japan35%
Double chance
Tunisia or draw65%
Japan or draw65%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
0:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Japan: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Tunisia with Omar Rekik: 0.2 goals/game. Without: 1.7 goals/game (4 of 7 games)
- Japan: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
Tunisia 3-4-2-1 · Japan 3-4-2-1
Tunisia
- 16 A. Dahmen
- 6 D. Bronn
- 3 M. Talbi
- 4 O. Rekik
- 20 Y. Valery
- 25 A. Slimane
- 17 E. Skhiri
- 2 A. Abdi
- 8 E. Saad
- 10 H. Mejbri
- 26 S. Tounekti
Japan
- 1 Z. Suzuki
- 22 T. Tomiyasu
- 4 K. Itakura
- 21 H. Ito
- 10 R. Doan
- 24 K. Sano
- 7 A. Tanaka
- 13 K. Nakamura
- 14 J. Ito
- 15 D. Kamada
- 18 A. Ueda
Substitutes
- 13 R. Khedira
- 11 I. Gharbi
- 15 M. Belhaj Mahmoud
- 7 M. Achouri
- 18 R. Elloumi
- 22 S. Ben Hsan
- 12 M. Ben Ouannes
- 9 H. Mastouri
- 14 K. Ayari
- 21 A. Ben Hmida
- 19 F. Chaouat
- 5 A. Arous
- 23 M. Neffati
- 24 R. Chikhaoui
- 1 A. Chamakh
- 2 Y. Sugawara
- 17 Y. Suzuki
- 20 A. Seko
- 25 J. Suzuki
- 16 T. Watanabe
- 11 D. Maeda
- 19 K. Ogawa
- 26 K. Shiogai
- 23 T. Hayakawa
- 5 Y. Nagatomo
- 9 K. Goto
- 12 K. Osako
- 3 S. Taniguchi
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