World Cup

Türkiye - Paraguay

06/20/2026, 03:00 AM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Türkiye
1.7
Total xG
2.8
Paraguay
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
TÜRPAR

Türkiye

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.43
Attack strength (1.4x league average)
-0.32
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.20
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 27 vs 37, 10 places gap)
+0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.04

Paraguay

Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
+0.60
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.19
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.19
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 37 vs 27, 10 places gap)
-0.12

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.57
+0.57
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Türkiye with Zeki Çelik: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Paraguay: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Paraguay with Álex Arce : 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 4
    Paraguay: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

27%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a win for Türkiye with a probability of 51% and expected 1.73 goals
  • Türkiye is in better form with 4 wins in the last 5 games, while Paraguay has a mixed record of 3 wins and 2 losses
  • The tactical approach is contrasting: Türkiye is possession-dominant (62% possession), while Paraguay is counter-attacking with many shots on target (6.6 shots on target with 29% possession)
Risk Factors
  • Despite being favorites, Türkiye shows a stalling goal production of 1.6 goals recently compared to the season average of 2.3 goals
  • Paraguay has recently improved its offensive performance, scoring an average of 1.8 goals compared to their season average of 1.2 goals
  • There are no historical head-to-head data available for both teams
Overview

Türkiye (3rd place, 0 points) faces Paraguay (4th place, 0 points) at Levi's Stadium

This World Cup match on June 20, 2026, 3:00 AM, is crucial for both teams in the fight for group stage progression after both lost their first game

Form

Türkiye showed a form of WWWWL in their last five matches, consisting of four wins and one loss

Their last match was a 0-2 loss against Australia

Previously, they had a 2-1 win against Venezuela and a 4-0 win against North Macedonia

Paraguay has a form of WWLWL in their last five matches, with three wins and two losses

Their last match ended in a 1-4 loss against the United States

Before that, they won 4-0 against Nicaragua and lost 1-2 against Morocco

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Türkiye averaged 2.38 goals per game and conceded 1.5 goals per game this season

They kept 3 clean sheets, both teams scored in 4 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 5 games

In home games, Türkiye scored an average of 2.33 goals and conceded 2.33 goals

Paraguay averaged 0.78 goals per game and conceded only 0.56 goals per game this season

They managed to keep 10 clean sheets, both teams scored in 4 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 games

Away from home, Paraguay averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded

At Levi's Stadium, the two previous matches saw an average of 3.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 2 of 2 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 of 2 matches

Key Players

For Türkiye, Kerem Aktürkoğlu is in rising form with 3 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games

Yunus Akgün contributed 2 goals in the last 5 games and also shows rising form

Arda Güler provided 2 assists in the last 5 games

For Paraguay, Julio Enciso is active with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games

Isidro Pitta scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist in his last 3 games

Miguel Almirón shows rising form

Goalkeepers

Uğurcan Çakır of Türkiye achieved 3 clean sheets this season

For Paraguay, goalkeeper Orlando Gill showed rising form in the last 5 games with an average rating of 7.48 and has already secured 10 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match takes place at Levi's Stadium on grass

Historical venue data shows an average of 3.0 goals per game

In both previous matches, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored in one of two encounters

Türkiye averages 2.33 goals per home game, while Paraguay averages 0.83 goals away from home

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