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Türkiye – Paraguay0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Türkiye
1.73
Total xG
2.80
Paraguay
1.08
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Türkiye | Paraguay |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | +0.60 | |
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.57 | +0.57 |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.43 | |
| Attack strength (1.4x league average) | −0.32 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.19 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.19 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 37 vs 27, 10 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 27 vs 37, 10 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.04 |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a win for Türkiye with a probability of 51% and expected 1.73 goals
- Türkiye is in better form with 4 wins in the last 5 games, while Paraguay has a mixed record of 3 wins and 2 losses
- The tactical approach is contrasting: Türkiye is possession-dominant (62% possession), while Paraguay is counter-attacking with many shots on target (6.6 shots on target with 29% possession)
Risks
- Despite being favorites, Türkiye shows a stalling goal production of 1.6 goals recently compared to the season average of 2.3 goals
- Paraguay has recently improved its offensive performance, scoring an average of 1.8 goals compared to their season average of 1.2 goals
- There are no historical head-to-head data available for both teams
All probabilities
Result
Türkiye51%
Draw27%
Paraguay22%
Double chance
Türkiye or draw78%
Paraguay or draw49%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Türkiye with Zeki Çelik: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Paraguay: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- Paraguay with Álex Arce : 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Paraguay: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Türkiye 4-2-3-1 · Paraguay 4-4-2
Türkiye
- 23 U. Çakır
- 18 M. Müldür
- 3 M. Demiral
- 14 A. Bardakcı
- 20 F. Kadıoğlu
- 16 İ. Yüksek
- 10 H. Çalhanoğlu
- 19 Y. Akgün
- 8 A. Guler
- 11 K. Yildiz
- 7 M. Aktürkoğlu
Paraguay
- 12 O. Gill
- 4 J. Cáceres
- 15 G. Gómez Portillo
- 3 O. Alderete Fernández
- 6 J. Alonso Mujica
- 10 M. Almirón Rejala
- 14 A. Cubas
- 8 D. Gómez Amarilla
- 23 M. Galarza Fonda
- 25 I. Pitta Saldívar
- 19 J. Enciso
Substitutes
- 15 O. Kabak
- 5 S. Özcan
- 26 C. Uzun
- 12 A. Bayındır
- 21 B. Yılmaz
- 22 K. Ayhan
- 13 E. Elmalı
- 24 O. Aydın
- 4 C. Söyüncü
- 17 İ. Kahveci
- 9 D. Gül
- 6 O. Kökçü
- 2 M. Çelik
- 1 F. Günok
- 25 S. Akaydin
- 9 A. Sanabria Ayala
- 24 G. Caballero
- 20 B. Ojeda Rodríguez
- 21 G. Ávalos Stumpfs
- 1 R. Fernández Torres
- 16 D. Bobadilla
- 5 F. Balbuena González
- 7 R. Sosa
- 17 A. Romero Gamarra
- 2 V. Velázquez Ramos
- 18 A. Arce Barrios
- 13 J. Canale Domínguez
- 26 A. Maidana Mendieta
- 11 M. Magalhães Prado
- 22 G. Olveira Echeverría
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