World Cup

Ecuador - Curacao

06/21/2026, 12:00 AM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Ecuador
2.6
Total xG
3.1
Curacao
0.5
Most Likely Scores

2:0

15%

3:0

14%

4:0

9%

2:1

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
ECUCUR

Ecuador

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-3.12
Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 3 league avg)
-2.29
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.08

Curacao

Defensive weakness (3.3 conceded vs 0.6 league avg)
+2.67
Attack weakness (0.44x league average)
-0.46
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
+0.30
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.19
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.15

League

High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match)
+1.10
+1.10
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Ecuador with Jordy AlcĂ­var: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Curacao with Gervane Kastaneer: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    Curacao: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

83%

Draw

14%

Away Win

4%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

96%

Away or Draw

17%

No Draw

86%

Both Score

Yes

36%

No

64%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Ecuador with an 83% probability
  • Curacao shows a strongly negative form with 4 losses in the last 5 games and recently conceded an average of 4.5 goals
  • Ecuador has a very strong defense with only 0.28 goals conceded per game this season and kept 13 clean sheets
Risk Factors
  • Ecuador's home offense averages only 0.79 goals per game
  • Curacao's recent goal production is low at 0.8 goals per game, compared to their season average of 1.3 goals
  • Curacao averaged only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

Ecuador (3rd place, 0 points) host Curacao (4th place, 0 points) at Arrowhead Stadium

World Cup match on June 21, 2026, 2:00 AM

Both teams aim to collect points in the group stage

Form

Ecuador's form across all competitions: DDWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Their last match resulted in a loss

Curacao's form across all competitions: DLLLL

They achieved 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses

Curacao is currently on a streak of 4 consecutive losses

Statistics

Ecuador scored an average of 0.78 goals per game and conceded 0.28 goals

They kept 13 clean sheets

Curacao scored an average of 2.8 goals per game and conceded 0.5 goals

They kept 6 clean sheets

The Arrowhead Stadium has seen an average of 3.0 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 0 out of 1 matches at the stadium

There was 1 Over 2.5 result in 1 match at the stadium

Head-to-Head

No previous head-to-head meetings were found in the dataset

Key Players

For Ecuador, Enner Valencia (Attacker) is a key player with 2 goals in the last 5 games

John Yeboah (Attacker) contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 appearances

Pervis Estupiñån (Defender) added 1 goal in his last 5 matches

For Curacao, Juninho Bacuna (Midfielder) stands out with 2 assists in the last 5 games

Livano Comenencia (Defender) scored 1 goal in the last 5 games

Tahith Chong (Midfielder) also scored 1 goal in his last 5 matches

Goalkeepers

Ecuador's goalkeeper HernĂĄn GalĂ­ndez has 13 clean sheets this season

His form trend is rising with a delta of +0.61

Curacao's goalkeeper Eloy Room recorded 6 clean sheets

His form trend is also rising with a delta of +0.71

Influences

The match will take place on grass at Arrowhead Stadium

The stadium has an average of 3.0 goals per game

Ecuador scores an average of 0.79 goals at home and concedes 0.14 goals

Curacao scores an average of 2.8 goals away and concedes 0.2 goals

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.