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Ecuador – Curacao0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Ecuador
2.64
Total xG
3.11
Curacao
0.48
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Ecuador | Curacao |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −3.12 | |
| Defensive weakness (3.3 conceded vs 0.6 league avg) | +2.67 | |
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 3 league avg) | −2.29 | |
| High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match) | +1.10 | +1.10 |
| Attack weakness (0.44x league average) | −0.46 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | +0.30 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.08 |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Ecuador with an 83% probability
- Curacao shows a strongly negative form with 4 losses in the last 5 games and recently conceded an average of 4.5 goals
- Ecuador has a very strong defense with only 0.28 goals conceded per game this season and kept 13 clean sheets
Risks
- Ecuador's home offense averages only 0.79 goals per game
- Curacao's recent goal production is low at 0.8 goals per game, compared to their season average of 1.3 goals
- Curacao averaged only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Ecuador83%
Draw14%
Curacao4%
Double chance
Ecuador or draw96%
Curacao or draw17%
No draw86%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes36%
No64%
Most likely scores
2:0
15%
3:0
14%
4:0
9%
2:1
7%
3:1
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Ecuador with Jordy Alcívar: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Curacao with Gervane Kastaneer: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Curacao: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Ecuador 3-1-4-2 · Curacao 5-4-1
Ecuador
- 1 H. Galíndez
- 21 A. Franco Palma
- 6 W. Pacho Tenorio
- 3 P. Hincapié Reyna
- 5 J. Alcívar Macías
- 9 J. Zamora
- 15 P. Vite Uca
- 23 M. Caicedo Corozo
- 7 P. Estupiñán Tenorio
- 19 G. Plata Jiménez
- 13 E. Valencia Lastra
Curacao
- 1 E. Room
- 20 J. Brenet
- 3 J. Gaari
- 18 A. Obispo
- 5 S. Floranus
- 24 D. Fonville
- 21 T. Chong
- 8 L. Comenencia
- 10 L. Bacuna
- 7 J. Bacuna
- 9 J. Locadia
Substitutes
- 24 J. Arévalo Mera
- 10 R. Páez Andrade
- 16 J. Caicedo Medina
- 4 J. Ordóñez Guerrero
- 11 K. Rodríguez Cortéz
- 26 Y. Medina Ortiz
- 18 D. Castillo
- 20 N. Angulo Ramírez
- 17 A. Preciado Quiñónez
- 12 W. Ramírez Preciado
- 22 G. Valle Bustamante
- 14 A. Minda García
- 2 F. Torres Caicedo
- 8 A. Valencia
- 25 J. Porozo Vernaza
- 15 A. Martha
- 12 S. Hansen
- 14 K. Gorré
- 13 T. Noslin
- 25 T. Bodak
- 17 B. Kuwas
- 2 S. Sambo
- 11 J. Antonisse
- 23 R. Bazoer
- 22 K. Felida
- 26 T. Doornbusch
- 4 R. van Eijma
- 6 G. Roemeratoe
- 16 J. Margaritha
- 19 G. Kastaneer
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