La Liga
Osasuna - Real Madrid
02/21/2026, 05:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.9
1.8
1:1
12%1:2
10%0:2
9%1:3
6%2:1
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
21%
Draw
26%
Away Win
53%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
54%
Under 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
47%
Away or Draw
79%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- Offensive Superiority: Real Madrid averages 2.21 goals per game, almost double Osasuna's 1.17, giving them a clear advantage in firepower
- Historical Dominance: Real Madrid has won 4 of the last 5 encounters, scoring 14 goals to Osasuna's 3
- Tactical Advantage: Real Madrid's dominant, high-possession style (59% possession) against Osasuna's counter-attacking approach is likely to give the visitors control of the game
Risk Factors
- Osasuna's strong home form: The home team is unbeaten in their last five matches (3 wins, 2 draws)
- Defensive fortress: Osasuna concedes only an average of 0.76 goals per game at home
- Key player absence for Madrid: The visitors are missing the influential midfielder Jude Bellingham (4 goals, 3 assists this season)
Overview
Osasuna (10th place, 30 points) hosts league leaders Real Madrid (1st place, 60 points) at the Estadio El Sadar
The La Liga match will take place on February 21, 2026, at 6:30 PM
Real Madrid aims to extend their lead at the top, while Osasuna sits in a mid-table position
Form
Osasuna is in strong form, unbeaten in their last 5 games (Form: WWDWD), with 3 wins and 2 draws
Real Madrid is also in impressive shape, having won their last 4 consecutive matches (Form: LWWWW)
The visitors come into this fixture on a 4-game winning streak
Statistics
Offensively, Real Madrid is far superior with an average of 2.21 goals per game compared to Osasuna's 1.17
Defensively, Real Madrid concedes only 0.79 goals per game, while Osasuna is at 1.17
Particularly noteworthy is Osasuna's defensive strength at home (0.76 goals conceded) and Real Madrid's attacking threat away (2.18 goals scored)
Head-to-Head
Real Madrid has clearly dominated recent encounters
In the last 5 meetings, Real Madrid won 4 times, with one draw
The goal difference of 14:3 in favor of Real Madrid highlights their superiority in the recent past
Key Players
For Osasuna, Ante Budimir is the key player in attack with 11 season goals and his form trend is rising
RubĂ©n GarcĂa is an important creator with 5 assists
For Real Madrid, Vinicius Junior is a constant threat with 8 goals and 5 assists, while Arda GĂŒler directs the attack with 7 assists
Goalkeepers
The goalkeeper matchup features Sergio Herrera for Osasuna and Thibaut Courtois for Real Madrid
Courtois has a statistical advantage this season with 11 clean sheets, compared to Herrera who has kept 6
Influences
Osasuna is particularly strong defensively at the Estadio El Sadar, conceding an average of only 0.76 goals per home game
Recent matches at this stadium have tended to be high-scoring, with an average of 3.2 goals per game