Match report →
Scotland – Morocco0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Scotland
1.29
Total xG
2.74
Morocco
1.45
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Scotland | Morocco |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.4x league average) | −0.81 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.74 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.68 | +0.68 |
| Attack strength (1.46x league average) | −0.48 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.46 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.41 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.38 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 43 vs 11, 32 places gap) | −0.23 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 43, 32 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.03 |
Key factors
- Pipeline prediction: Morocco is slightly favored with a 39% win probability, compared to Scotland's 32%
- Morocco's Defense: Morocco boasts an exceptionally strong defensive record, conceding an average of only 0.25 goals per game with 6 clean sheets
- Scotland's Offensive Form: Scotland enters the match with 3 consecutive wins and maintains a season average of 2.17 goals scored per game
Risks
- Missing H2H data: The absence of historical head-to-head data limits contextual analysis for this matchup
- Morocco's xG value: Morocco's recent expected goals average (0.75) is significantly lower than their season goals average (2.75)
- Tight prediction outcome: Pipeline predictions show a close contest with 32% home win, 29% draw, and 39% away win, indicating high unpredictability
All probabilities
Result
Scotland32%
Draw29%
Morocco39%
Double chance
Scotland or draw61%
Morocco or draw68%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Morocco: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- Scotland with Ben Gannon-Doak: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Morocco with Achraf Hakimi: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Morocco: 46% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 13)
- Scotland: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Scotland 4-4-1-1 · Morocco 4-2-3-1
Scotland
- 1 A. Gunn
- 22 N. Patterson
- 5 G. Hanley
- 13 J. Hendry
- 3 A. Robertson
- 7 J. McGinn
- 11 R. Christie
- 19 L. Ferguson
- 6 K. Tierney
- 4 S. McTominay
- 10 C. Adams
Morocco
- 1 Y. Bounou
- 2 A. Hakimi Mouh
- 14 I. Diop
- 18 C. Riad
- 3 N. Mazraoui
- 6 A. Bouaddi
- 24 N. El Aynaoui
- 10 B. Abdelkader Diaz
- 8 A. Ounahi
- 23 B. El Khannous
- 11 I. Saibari Ben El Basra
Substitutes
- 2 A. Hickey
- 17 B. Doak
- 9 L. Dykes
- 23 K. McLean
- 18 G. Hirst
- 16 D. Hyam
- 14 R. Stewart
- 25 F. Curtis
- 12 L. Kelly
- 15 J. Souttar
- 24 A. Ralston
- 26 S. McKenna
- 8 T. Fletcher
- 20 L. Shankland
- 21 Craig Gordon
- 21 A. Amaimouni-Echghouyab
- 17 M. Sbai
- 4 S. Amrabat
- 15 S. El Mourabet
- 7 C. Talbi
- 26 A. Salah-Eddine
- 20 A. El Kaabi
- 13 Z. El Ouahdi
- 16 G. Yassine
- 5 M. Saadane
- 25 R. Halhal
- 9 S. Rahimi
- 19 Y. Belammari
- 12 M. Mohand Mohamedi
- 22 A. Tagnaouti
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