World Cup

Scotland - Morocco

06/19/2026, 10:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Scotland
1.3
Total xG
2.7
Morocco
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SCOMOR

Scotland

Attack strength (1.4x league average)
-0.81
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.74
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.41
Standings disadvantage (pos 43 vs 11, 32 places gap)
-0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.03

Morocco

Attack strength (1.46x league average)
-0.48
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.46
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.38
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
+0.24
Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 43, 32 places gap)
+0.10

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Morocco: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Scotland with Ben Gannon-Doak: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Morocco with Achraf Hakimi: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 4
    Morocco: 46% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 13)

  • 5
    Scotland: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

29%

Away Win

39%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

61%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: Morocco is slightly favored with a 39% win probability, compared to Scotland's 32%
  • Morocco's Defense: Morocco boasts an exceptionally strong defensive record, conceding an average of only 0.25 goals per game with 6 clean sheets
  • Scotland's Offensive Form: Scotland enters the match with 3 consecutive wins and maintains a season average of 2.17 goals scored per game
Risk Factors
  • Missing H2H data: The absence of historical head-to-head data limits contextual analysis for this matchup
  • Morocco's xG value: Morocco's recent expected goals average (0.75) is significantly lower than their season goals average (2.75)
  • Tight prediction outcome: Pipeline predictions show a close contest with 32% home win, 29% draw, and 39% away win, indicating high unpredictability
Overview

Scotland host Morocco at Gillette Stadium for a World Cup match

The game is scheduled for June 19, 2026, 6:00 PM

Scotland currently holds 1st place in the table with 3 points after one win

Morocco is in 2nd place with 1 point after one draw

Both teams are competing for a strong starting position in the group stage

Form

Scotland's form in their last five matches is LLWWW

This record includes 3 wins and 2 losses

The team is currently on a streak of 3 consecutive wins

Morocco's form in their last five matches is WWWDD

This represents 3 wins and 2 draws, with the team remaining unbeaten

Morocco has played to a draw in their last 2 consecutive matches

Statistics

Scotland averages 2.25 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded in home games

Morocco averages 3.00 goals scored and 0.25 goals conceded in away games

Scotland has scored an average of 2.17 goals and conceded 1.17 goals per game this season

Morocco shows strong season performance with an average of 2.75 goals scored and only 0.25 goals conceded per game

Advanced statistics indicate Scotland consistently scores around 2.4 goals per game

Morocco also consistently scores around 2.5 goals per game

The venue sees an average of 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 games

Head-to-Head

No historical head-to-head matches between these two teams are available in the dataset

Key Players

For Scotland, midfielder John McGinn is a key player with 1 season goal, 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Scott McTominay, also a midfielder, scored 2 goals in his last 5 appearances

Forward ChƩ Adams has contributed 3 goals in the last 5 games

For Morocco, midfielder Ismael Saibari is crucial with 1 season goal and 3 goals in the last 5 games

Attacker Brahim DĆ­az has scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist in his last 5 appearances

Defender Issa Diop scored 1 goal in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

For Scotland, goalkeeper Angus GunnĀ  is between the posts

His team recorded 2 clean sheets this season

For Morocco, Yassine Bounou guards the goal

His team has kept 6 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will take place at Gillette Stadium on artificial turf

Scotland has a record of 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses (1:0 goals) on artificial turf

Morocco's record on this surface is 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses (3:1 goals)

The stadium averages 3.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 60% of matches and over 2.5 goals in 80%

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