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France – Iraq3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
France
3.34
Total xG
3.80
Iraq
0.46
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | France | Iraq |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 3.1 league avg) | −2.44 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | −1.20 | |
| Attack strength (1.35x league average) | +1.19 | |
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.16 | +1.16 |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 58, 56 places gap) | +0.23 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.19 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 58 vs 2, 56 places gap) | −0.08 |
Key factors
- France's high win probability of 90% and 3.34 expected goals according to mathematical analysis
- France's tactical dominance with an average of 59% possession and 5.4 shots on target per game in their last five matches
- France's strong current form with four wins in their last five games and a home goal difference of 3.00 goals scored to 0.33 goals conceded
Risks
- Iraq's limited offensive potency with an average of 2.0 shots on target per game in their last five matches
- Limited data available regarding head-to-head matches, as no previous encounters are recorded
All probabilities
Result
France90%
Draw8%
Iraq2%
Double chance
France or draw98%
Iraq or draw10%
No draw92%
Goals
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.573%
Under 2.527%
Over 3.552%
Under 3.548%
Both teams score
Yes36%
No64%
Most likely scores
3:0
14%
4:0
12%
5:0
8%
3:1
6%
2:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- France: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- France with Kylian Mbappé: 2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- France: first goal in 5 of 5 games (100%)
- France: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
France 4-2-3-1 · Iraq 4-1-4-1
France
- 16 M. Maignan
- 5 J. Koundé
- 4 D. Upamecano
- 17 W. Saliba
- 3 L. Digne
- 6 K. Kone
- 14 A. Rabiot
- 7 O. Dembélé
- 11 M. Olise
- 12 B. Barcola
- 10 K. Mbappé
Iraq
- 22 A. Fadhil
- 3 H. Ali
- 4 Z. Hantoosh
- 5 A. Rahman
- 23 M. Doski
- 16 A. Al-Ammari
- 11 A. Qasem
- 24 Z. Al Dulaimi
- 14 Z. Iqbal
- 8 I. Bayesh
- 18 A. Hussein
Substitutes
- 1 B. Samba
- 23 R. Risser
- 8 A. Tchouaméni
- 25 M. Akliouche
- 21 L. Hernández Pi
- 20 D. Doue
- 18 W. Zaire Emery
- 26 M. Lacroix
- 22 J. Mateta
- 15 I. Konaté
- 24 M. Cherki
- 2 M. Gusto
- 9 M. Thuram
- 13 N. Kanté
- 19 T. Hernández
- 9 A. Al-Hamadi
- 7 Y. Amyn
- 21 M. Farji
- 19 K. Yakob
- 17 A. Al Tameemi
- 1 F. Raheem
- 13 A. Hashim
- 10 M. Ali
- 25 M. Saadoun Al Korji
- 20 A. Sher
- 2 R. Sulaka Adhamat
- 15 A. Hasan
- 6 M. Younnes
- 12 J. Hachim
- 26 F. Putros
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