World Cup
France - Iraq
06/22/2026, 09:00 PM
Expected Goals
3.3
3.8
0.5
3:0
14%4:0
12%5:0
8%3:1
6%2:1
6%What influences the xG?
France
Iraq
League
The Lab
- 1France: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 2France with Kylian Mbappé: 2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 3France: first goal in 5 of 5 games (100%)
- 4France: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
90%
Draw
8%
Away Win
2%
Goals
Over 1.5
90%
Under 1.5
10%
Over 2.5
73%
Under 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
52%
Under 3.5
48%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
98%
Away or Draw
10%
No Draw
92%
Both Score
Yes
36%
No
64%
Key Factors
- France's high win probability of 90% and 3.34 expected goals according to mathematical analysis
- France's tactical dominance with an average of 59% possession and 5.4 shots on target per game in their last five matches
- France's strong current form with four wins in their last five games and a home goal difference of 3.00 goals scored to 0.33 goals conceded
Risk Factors
- Iraq's limited offensive potency with an average of 2.0 shots on target per game in their last five matches
- Limited data available regarding head-to-head matches, as no previous encounters are recorded
Overview
France (2nd place, 3 points) faces Iraq (4th place, 0 points) in a World Cup group stage match. The game takes place on June 22, 2026, 11:00 PM at Lincoln Financial Field. The mathematical analysis predicts a clear home win for France with a 90% probability and 3.34 expected goals, while Iraq is expected to score only 0.46 goals.
Form
France shows strong form with four wins and one loss in their last five matches across all competitions (WWLWW). Their last game ended in a 3-1 victory. Iraq's recent form includes two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five outings (WWDLL). The team lost their last match 1-4 and is currently on a two-game losing streak.
Statistics
France scores an average of 2.67 goals per game and concedes 0.67 goals per game this season. Their home record is particularly strong, with an average of 3.00 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded per home match, including three clean sheets. Iraq scores an average of 1.50 goals and concedes 0.65 goals per season. Away from home, the average is 1.56 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded, with twelve clean sheets. Lincoln Financial Field averages 2.0 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 0 out of 2 matches and over 2.5 goals in 1 out of 2 matches.
Head-to-Head
No previous direct encounters between France and Iraq are recorded in the dataset.
Key Players
For France, key players include Kylian Mbappé (two season goals, three goals in last five games, average rating 7.96), Michael Olise (two season assists, four goals and one assist in last five games, average rating 8.81), and Adrien Rabiot (one season assist, one assist in last five games, average rating 7.55). For Iraq, Aymen Hussein (one season goal, two goals in last five games, average rating 7.2), Amir Al-Ammari (one goal and three assists in last five games, average rating 6.63), and Merchas Doski (one goal in last five games, average rating 6.94) are notable.
Goalkeepers
Mike Maignan is in goal for France, showing a rising form trend. The team has achieved three clean sheets this season. For Iraq, Ahmed Basil Fadhil is the goalkeeper, with an average rating of 7.14 in his last five games. Iraq has recorded twelve clean sheets this season.
Influences
France benefits from its home strength, averaging 3.00 goals scored and conceding only 0.33 goals in home matches. Lincoln Financial Field shows an average of 2.0 total goals per game, with a 0% rate for 'both teams to score' and a 50% rate for 'over 2.5 goals'.