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Uruguay – Spain0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Uruguay
0.75
Total xG
2.24
Spain
1.49
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Uruguay | Spain |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.67 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.50 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 1, 14 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Attack strength (1.42x league average) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 15, 14 places gap) | +0.09 |
Key factors
- Pipeline Prediction: A mathematical analysis indicates an away win for Spain with a 53% probability
- Form Disparity: Spain is unbeaten in their last five matches with 2 wins and 3 draws, while Uruguay is winless
- Offensive Prowess: Spain averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches and scores an average of 3.5 goals per game this season
Risks
- Uruguay's goal production is stagnant (1.3), season average is 1.6
- Uruguay averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
- The Estadio AKRON venue has seen an average of only 1.4 total goals per game in its last five matches
All probabilities
Result
Uruguay17%
Draw29%
Spain53%
Double chance
Uruguay or draw47%
Spain or draw83%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
0:1
14%
1:1
13%
0:0
12%
0:2
12%
1:2
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Spain with Álex Baena: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Uruguay: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Spain: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Uruguay with Maxi Araújo: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Uruguay 4-1-4-1 · Spain 4-2-3-1
Uruguay
- 23 N. Muslera Micol
- 13 G. Varela Olivera
- 3 S. Cáceres Ramos
- 16 M. Olivera Miramontes
- 25 J. Sanabria Magole
- 5 M. Ugarte Ribeiro
- 14 A. Canobbio Graviz
- 6 R. Bentancur Colmán
- 8 F. Valverde Dipetta
- 20 M. Araújo Vilches
- 9 D. Núñez Ribeiro
Spain
- 23 U. Simón Mendibil
- 5 M. Llorente Moreno
- 22 P. Cubarsí Paredes
- 14 A. Laporte
- 24 M. Cucurella
- 20 P. López
- 16 Rodri
- 19 L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
- 6 M. Merino Zazón
- 15 A. Rodríguez
- 21 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
Substitutes
- 21 F. Viñas Barboza
- 4 R. Araújo da Silva
- 2 J. Giménez de Vargas
- 24 S. Bueno Sciutto
- 11 F. Pellistri Rebollo
- 26 R. Zalazar Martínez
- 19 R. Aguirre Soto
- 22 J. Piquerez Moreira
- 1 S. Rochet Álvarez
- 7 D. De La Cruz Arcosa
- 12 S. Mele Castanero
- 15 E. Martínez Toranza
- 17 M. Viña Susperreguy
- 18 P. Rodríguez Bravo
- 10 G. De Arrascaeta Benedetti
- 3 A. Grimaldo García
- 10 D. Olmo Carvajal
- 7 F. Torres García
- 4 E. García
- 9 Pablo Gaviria
- 13 J. Pons
- 2 M. Pubill Pagès
- 17 N. Williams Arthuer
- 8 F. Ruiz Peña
- 26 B. Iglesias Quintas
- 25 V. Muñoz Villanueva
- 11 Y. Jesús Pino Santos
- 18 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
- 1 D. Raya Martin
- 12 P. Porro Sauceda
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