World Cup
Uruguay - Spain
06/27/2026, 12:00 AM
Expected Goals
0.8
2.2
1.5
0:1
14%1:1
13%0:0
12%0:2
12%1:2
9%What influences the xG?
Uruguay
Spain
The Lab
- 1Spain with Ălex Baena: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 2Uruguay: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 3Spain: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4Uruguay with Maxi AraĂșjo: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
17%
Draw
29%
Away Win
53%
Goals
Over 1.5
67%
Under 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
39%
Under 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
47%
Away or Draw
83%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: A mathematical analysis indicates an away win for Spain with a 53% probability
- Form Disparity: Spain is unbeaten in their last five matches with 2 wins and 3 draws, while Uruguay is winless
- Offensive Prowess: Spain averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches and scores an average of 3.5 goals per game this season
Risk Factors
- Uruguay's goal production is stagnant (1.3), season average is 1.6
- Uruguay averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
- The Estadio AKRON venue has seen an average of only 1.4 total goals per game in its last five matches
Overview
Uruguay faces Spain at Estadio AKRON
This World Cup match will take place on June 27, 2026, 2:00 AM
Spain leads the group in 1st place with 4 points, while Uruguay is in 2nd place with 2 points
Form
Uruguay's last five matches across all competitions show 0 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss
Their current form is LDDDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Uruguay drew 2-2 with Cape Verde Islands in their last outing
Spain recorded 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses in their last five matches
Their current form is DDWDW
Spain won their most recent game against Saudi Arabia with a 4-0 score
Statistics
Uruguay scores an average of 1.22 goals per game and concedes 0.67 goals
In home games, Uruguay scores an average of 1.23 goals and concedes 0.31 goals
Spain shows strong offense with an average of 3.5 goals per game and a defense that concedes only 0.33 goals
In away games, Spain averages 3.25 goals scored and 0 goals conceded
The Estadio AKRON venue has seen an average of 1.4 total goals per game in its last five matches
Both teams scored in 20% of games, and 20% of games had over 2.5 goals
Key Players
For Uruguay, Maxi AraĂșjo is a key player with 2 season goals and 1 assist, holding an average rating of 8.05
Federico Valverde has a season average rating of 7.18
AgustĂn Canobbio has scored 1 season goal and has a season average rating of 7.06
For Spain, Mikel Oyarzabal stands out with 2 season goals, 1 assist, and an average rating of 8.25
Lamine Yamal contributed 1 season goal and has an average rating of 7.52
Aymeric Laporte has 1 season assist and an average rating of 7.41
Goalkeepers
Uruguay's goalkeeper, Fernando Muslera, has a season average rating of 5.95
Uruguay has kept 10 clean sheets this season
Spain's goalkeeper, Unai SimĂłn, has a season average rating of 6.98
Spain has achieved 5 clean sheets this season
Influences
The match will be played at Estadio AKRON on an artificial turf surface
Uruguay's record on artificial turf is 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses with 0:0 goals
Spain's record on artificial turf is 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses with 4:0 goals
Uruguay's home statistics show 1.23 goals scored and 0.31 goals conceded per home game
Spain scores an average of 3.25 goals and concedes 0 goals in away games