World Cup

Ecuador - Germany

06/25/2026, 08:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Ecuador
0.8
Total xG
2.1
Germany
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

0:1

14%

0:2

10%

1:0

9%
What influences the xG?
ECUGER

Ecuador

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.51
Standings disadvantage (pos 24 vs 12, 12 places gap)
-0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.06

Germany

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.57
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match)
+0.51
Attack strength (1.21x league average)
-0.32
Standings advantage (pos 12 vs 24, 12 places gap)
+0.07
Nathaniel Brown not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
31% of goal output missing (only 72% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Germany: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Ecuador with Jordy AlcĂ­var: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Ecuador: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 4
    Germany: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 5
    Germany: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

22%

Draw

32%

Away Win

45%

Goals

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

34%

Under 2.5

66%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

55%

Away or Draw

78%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Germany's strong form with five consecutive wins and high goal threat
  • Ecuador's outstanding defense with only 0.28 goals conceded on average this season and 13 clean sheets
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Germany with 45% probability and 1.27 expected goals
Risk Factors
  • Germany's goal threat is reduced by 27% due to Nathaniel Brown's absence (1 goal, 1 assist), as only 73% of the usual starting XI's strength is available
  • Ecuador's low offensive efficiency with an average of only 0.78 goals per game and 10 matches without scoring
  • MetLife Stadium has shown a high goal average (3.67 goals) and 100% 'Both Teams To Score' in the last three games, which could challenge Ecuador's defense
Overview

Ecuador (3rd place, 1 point) faces Germany (1st place, 6 points) at MetLife Stadium. The World Cup match takes place on June 25, 2026, 9:00 PM. Germany has already qualified for the round of 16 and aims to secure the top spot, while Ecuador is still fighting for a place in the knockout stage.

Form

Ecuador's form in the last five games is DWWLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This includes two wins, two draws, and one loss

Their last match ended in a draw (0-0 against Curacao)

Germany is in top form with WWWWW in their last five games

They have won all five matches

Their last game was a 2-1 victory against CĂŽte d'Ivoire

Statistics

Ecuador averages 0.78 goals scored per game and concedes only 0.28 goals per game this season

The team kept 13 clean sheets and failed to score in 10 matches

Germany scores an average of 2.67 goals per game and concedes 0.5 goals per game

They kept 4 clean sheets and failed to score in only one match

Ecuador's home strength shows 0.79 goals scored and 0.14 goals conceded per game

Germany's away record features 3.0 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded per game

Tactical analysis shows Ecuador scores consistently (approx. 1.5 goals per game)

Germany currently scores more often (3.4) than their season average (3.1)

Head-to-Head

There has been only one head-to-head match between these two teams

Germany won this encounter 3-0 on June 20, 2006

Based on this single result, Germany dominates the historical record

Key Players

For Ecuador, Moisés Caicedo (Midfielder, AvgRating 7.86), Pedro Vite (Midfielder, AvgRating 7.69), and Gonzalo Plata (Attacker, AvgRating 7.53) are in the starting XI

John Yeboah (Attacker, AvgRating 7.47) provided 2 assists in the last 5 games

Enner Valencia (Attacker, AvgRating 6.39) scored 1 goal in the last 5 games

For Germany, Joshua Kimmich (Midfielder, AvgRating 7.93) and Felix Nmecha (Midfielder, AvgRating 7.92) are key players

Kai Havertz (Attacker, AvgRating 7.14) scored 4 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games

Joshua Kimmich provided 6 assists in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Ecuador relies on HernĂĄn GalĂ­ndez (AvgRating 6.80), who shows a rising form trend (AvgRating 7.24) in the last 5 games

Germany has Manuel Neuer (AvgRating 6.52) in goal, whose form is stable (AvgRating 6.47) in the last 5 games

Ecuador recorded 13 clean sheets this season

Germany achieved this in 4 games

Influences

The match takes place at MetLife Stadium on artificial turf

Germany has a record of 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses with 7:1 goals on artificial turf

No specific data is available for Ecuador on artificial turf

The venue has seen an average of 3.67 goals per game in 3 matches

Both teams scored in all 3 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 3 matches

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