Match report →
Ecuador – Germany2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Ecuador
0.81
Total xG
2.08
Germany
1.27
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Ecuador | Germany |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.57 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match) | +0.51 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.51 | |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | −0.32 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 24 vs 12, 12 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 12 vs 24, 12 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Nathaniel Brown not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 31% of goal output missing (only 72% available) |
Key factors
- Germany's strong form with five consecutive wins and high goal threat
- Ecuador's outstanding defense with only 0.28 goals conceded on average this season and 13 clean sheets
- The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Germany with 45% probability and 1.27 expected goals
Risks
- Germany's goal threat is reduced by 27% due to Nathaniel Brown's absence (1 goal, 1 assist), as only 73% of the usual starting XI's strength is available
- Ecuador's low offensive efficiency with an average of only 0.78 goals per game and 10 matches without scoring
- MetLife Stadium has shown a high goal average (3.67 goals) and 100% 'Both Teams To Score' in the last three games, which could challenge Ecuador's defense
All probabilities
Result
Ecuador22%
Draw32%
Germany45%
Double chance
Ecuador or draw55%
Germany or draw78%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.563%
Under 1.537%
Over 2.534%
Under 2.566%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
0:1
14%
0:2
10%
1:0
9%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Germany: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Ecuador with Jordy Alcívar: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Ecuador: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)
- Germany: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)
- Germany: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
Lineups
Ecuador 4-4-2 · Germany 3-4-2-1
Ecuador
- 1 H. Galíndez
- 21 A. Franco Palma
- 4 J. Ordóñez Guerrero
- 6 W. Pacho Tenorio
- 3 P. Hincapié Reyna
- 9 J. Zamora
- 23 M. Caicedo Corozo
- 15 P. Vite Uca
- 20 N. Angulo Ramírez
- 19 G. Plata Jiménez
- 13 E. Valencia Lastra
Germany
- 1 M. Neuer
- 6 J. Kimmich
- 4 J. Tah
- 2 A. Rüdiger
- 19 L. Sané
- 23 F. Nmecha
- 5 A. Pavlović
- 22 D. Raum
- 10 J. Musiala
- 17 F. Wirtz
- 7 K. Havertz
Substitutes
- 24 J. Arévalo Mera
- 10 R. Páez Andrade
- 16 J. Caicedo Medina
- 11 K. Rodríguez Cortéz
- 26 Y. Medina Ortiz
- 18 D. Castillo
- 17 A. Preciado Quiñónez
- 7 P. Estupiñán Tenorio
- 5 J. Alcívar Macías
- 12 W. Ramírez Preciado
- 22 G. Valle Bustamante
- 14 A. Minda García
- 2 F. Torres Caicedo
- 8 A. Valencia
- 25 J. Porozo Vernaza
- 25 F. Ouedraogo
- 12 O. Baumann
- 13 P. Groß
- 3 W. Anton
- 14 M. Beier
- 8 L. Goretzka
- 21 A. Nübel
- 26 D. Undav
- 16 A. Stiller
- 9 J. Leweling
- 20 N. Amiri
- 24 M. Thiaw
- 11 N. Woltemade
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