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Bosnia and Herzegovina – Qatar3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Bosnia and Herzegovina
2.27
Total xG
3.11
Qatar
0.85
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bosnia and Herzegovina | Qatar |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +1.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 73 vs 53, 20 places gap) | −0.39 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.24 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.21 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 53 vs 73, 20 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 100% of goal output missing (only 71% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Bosnia and Herzegovina with 68% probability and 2.27 expected goals
- Qatar demonstrates significant defensive vulnerability away from home, conceding an average of 4.5 goals per game
- Qatar's offensive output is low, averaging only 1.8 shots on target in their last 5 matches
Risks
- Qatar concedes an average of 4.5 away goals per game
- Qatar averaged 1.8 shots on target in their last 5 games (few attempts)
All probabilities
Result
Bosnia and Herzegovina68%
Draw20%
Qatar11%
Double chance
Bosnia and Herzegovina or draw89%
Qatar or draw32%
No draw80%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
1:1
10%
3:0
9%
3:1
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Bosnia and Herzegovina with Ivan Sunjic: 0.4 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Bosnia and Herzegovina: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Bosnia and Herzegovina 4-4-2 · Qatar 4-3-3
Bosnia and Herzegovina
- 1 N. Vasilj
- 24 A. Malic
- 18 N. Katić
- 21 S. Radeljić
- 5 S. Kolašinac
- 20 E. Bajraktarevic
- 13 I. Bašić
- 14 I. Šunjić
- 19 K. Alajbegović
- 10 E. Demirović
- 11 E. Džeko
Qatar
- 1 M. Abunad
- 2 P. Correia
- 16 B. Khoukhi
- 4 G. Laye
- 18 S. Al-Braik
- 5 J. Abdulsallam
- 20 A. Fathi
- 12 K. Boudiaf
- 8 E. da Silva
- 11 A. Afif
- 10 H. Al Heidos
Substitutes
- 23 H. Tabakovic
- 8 A. Gigovic
- 9 S. Baždar
- 16 A. Hadžiahmetović
- 7 A. Dedić
- 15 A. Memić
- 22 M. Zlomislić
- 25 J. Lukić
- 12 M. Jurkas
- 6 B. Tahirovic
- 3 D. Hadzikadunic
- 2 N. Mujakić
- 17 D. Burnic
- 26 E. Mahmić
- 3 L. Mendes
- 13 A. Al Oui
- 26 M. Almanai
- 25 E. El Hussain Mohi aldin
- 15 Y. Youssef
- 17 A. Alganehi
- 21 S. Zakaria Hassan
- 19 A. Abdulla
- 24 T. Jamshid
- 22 M. Barsham
- 9 M. Muntari
- 6 A. Abdullah
- 7 A. Abdelmotaal
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