World Cup

Bosnia and Herzegovina - Qatar

06/24/2026, 07:00 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Bosnia and Herzegovina
2.3
Total xG
3.1
Qatar
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

1:1

10%

3:0

9%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
BAHQAT

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Standings disadvantage (pos 73 vs 53, 20 places gap)
-0.39
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.24
100% of goal output missing (only 71% available)

Qatar

Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+1.11
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.21
Standings advantage (pos 53 vs 73, 20 places gap)
+0.06
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Bosnia and Herzegovina with Ivan Sunjic: 0.4 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 2
    Bosnia and Herzegovina: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

68%

Draw

20%

Away Win

11%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

89%

Away or Draw

32%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Bosnia and Herzegovina with 68% probability and 2.27 expected goals
  • Qatar demonstrates significant defensive vulnerability away from home, conceding an average of 4.5 goals per game
  • Qatar's offensive output is low, averaging only 1.8 shots on target in their last 5 matches
Risk Factors
  • Qatar concedes an average of 4.5 away goals per game
  • Qatar averaged 1.8 shots on target in their last 5 games (few attempts)
Overview

Bosnia and Herzegovina (3rd place, 1 point) host Qatar (4th place, 1 point) at Lumen Field. World Cup match on June 24, 2026, 8:00 PM. Both teams are seeking crucial points in the group stage

Form

Bosnia and Herzegovina's form in all competitions is DDDDL (0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss)

Their last match ended in a loss

Qatar's form in all competitions is WLDDL (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)

Their last match also ended in a loss

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Bosnia and Herzegovina score an average of 1.9 goals per game and concede 0.9 goals per game

Their goal production is stagnant recently (1.0) compared to their season average (1.7)

At home, the team averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded

Qatar scores an average of 2.06 goals and concedes 1.56 goals per game

Qatar's goal production is stagnant recently (0.8) compared to their season average (1.1)

Away from home, Qatar concedes an average of 4.5 goals per game

Lumen Field has seen an average of 2.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches at the stadium

More than 2.5 goals were scored in 1 of 5 matches at the stadium

Head-to-Head

The provided dataset does not list any head-to-head matches between these teams

Key Players

Bosnia and Herzegovina's key players include Nikola Katic (avg 7.23 rating), Ivan Basic (avg 6.90 rating), and Sead Kolasinac (avg 6.88 rating)

For Qatar, Boualem Khoukhi (avg 6.98 rating), Karim Boudiaf (avg 6.88 rating), and Akram Afif (avg 6.77 rating) are important

Boualem Khoukhi scored 1 goal this season

Akram Afif scored 1 goal in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Nikola Vasilj (Bosnia and Herzegovina) recorded 3 clean sheets this season

Mahmoud Abunada (Qatar) kept 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf

Bosnia and Herzegovina has a record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss (1:4 goals) on artificial turf

Qatar has a record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss (0:6 goals) on artificial turf

Lumen Field averages 2.6 goals per game with a BTTS rate of 60%

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