World Cup

Panama - England

06/27/2026, 09:00 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Panama
1.8
Total xG
3.5
England
1.8
Most Likely Scores

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

2:2

7%

1:3

5%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
PANENG

Panama

Standings disadvantage (pos 29 vs 4, 25 places gap)
-0.34
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.03

England

Attack strength (1.38x league average)
+0.51
Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.38
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 29, 25 places gap)
+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.10
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (4.9 goals/match)
+2.44
+2.44
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Panama: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    England with Djed Spence: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    England: first goal in 4 of 5 games (80%)

  • 4
    Panama: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Panama with Amir Murillo: 1 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (4 of 6 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

24%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

69%

Under 2.5

31%

Over 3.5

47%

Under 3.5

53%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

70%

No

30%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical model predicts a balanced game with 1.77 expected goals for both teams
  • Only 18% of England's goal production is available, which significantly limits offensive strength
  • England's current form (3 wins, 1 draw) is better than Panama's (1 win, 1 draw) in the last 5 games, with a dominant playing style (71% possession)
Overview

Panama (4th place, 0 points) faces England (1st place, 4 points) at MetLife Stadium in a World Cup match on June 27, 2026, 5:00 PM

Panama has not yet collected any points in the group stage

England leads the group and aims to defend its top position

Form

Panama's form in the last five matches is LWDLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This includes 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Panama's last two games ended in a loss

England shows a form of LWWWD

This corresponds to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last five matches

England's last game ended in a draw

Statistics

Panama has scored an average of 1.9 goals and conceded 0.5 goals per game this season

At home, they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.4 goals conceded per home game

England is offensive with an average of 2.75 goals scored per game and conceded an average of 0.0 goals

Away, England scores an average of 2.6 goals and concedes 0.0 goals per away game

England kept 8 clean sheets in season matches

MetLife Stadium records an average of 3.5 total goals per game

In all 4 games at the stadium, both teams scored

In 3 out of 4 games, over 2.5 goals were scored

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between Panama and England so far

England won this match

The goal difference in direct encounters is 1:6 in favor of England

The last encounter on June 24, 2018, ended with a 1:6 victory for England

England was dominant in the last direct encounter

Key Players

Carlos Harvey (midfielder) scored 1 goal in 3 of the last 5 games with an average rating of 6.85

Yoel BĂĄrcenas (attacker) played in 3 of the last 5 games with an average rating of 6.83

José Luis Rodríguez (attacker) played in 3 of the last 5 games with an average rating of 6.42

Harry Kane (attacker) scored 6 goals in 5 of the last 5 games and achieved a rating of 7.86

Jude Bellingham (midfielder) scored 2 goals in 5 of the last 5 games with a rating of 7.23

Marcus Rashford (attacker) scored 1 goal in 5 of the last 5 games and achieved a rating of 6.81

Goalkeepers

Panama's goalkeeper Orlando Mosquera has kept 6 clean sheets this season

England's goalkeeper Jordan Pickford has kept 8 clean sheets this season

Jordan Pickford shows stable form with a rating of 6.68 in the last 5 games

Orlando Mosquera has a slightly declining form in the last 5 games with a rating of 6.33

Influences

The match takes place on artificial turf

No data is available for Panama's performance on artificial turf

England has a record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses (4:2 goals) on artificial turf

Panama's home strength is evident with an average of 2.0 goals scored and 0.4 goals conceded per home game

England's away strength is very pronounced with an average of 2.6 goals scored and no goals conceded per away game

MetLife Stadium has recorded an average of 3.5 goals per game, and both teams scored in all 4 games

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