World Cup
Japan - Sweden
06/25/2026, 11:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.6
1.1
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Japan
Sweden
League
The Lab
- 1Japan: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Sweden with Isak Hien: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 3Sweden: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4Japan: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 5Japan with Tsuyoshi Watanabe : 1.7 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
45%
Draw
29%
Away Win
26%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
74%
Away or Draw
55%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Japan has a significantly stronger season record with an average of 3.38 goals scored and only 0.19 goals conceded per game
- The mathematical analysis sees Japan as favorites with a home win probability of 45%
- Japan's current form, with 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 games, is more convincing than Sweden's
Risk Factors
- Japan's active starting players contribute critically only 11% to the total goal production
- Japan's record on artificial turf at the stadium is modest with 0 wins and 1 draw, scoring 2:2 goals on this surface
- Sweden recently showed an improved average goal rate of 2.4 goals, compared to 1.8 season goals
Overview
Japan (2nd place, 4 points) meets Sweden (3rd place, 3 points) at AT&T Stadium
This is an important World Cup group stage match on June 26, 2026, 12:00 AM
Both teams are fighting for qualification to the next round
Form
Japan's current form is W-W-W-D-W (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
They achieved 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches
Japan's last results were a 4-0 win against Tunisia and a 2-2 draw against Netherlands
Sweden's form is W-L-D-W-L
They recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
Sweden's last results were a 1-5 loss against Netherlands and a 5-1 win against Tunisia
Statistics
Japan showed an impressive offense this season with an average of 3.38 goals per game
Their defense is also very strong with only 0.19 goals conceded per game
Japan kept 13 clean sheets and had over 2.5 goals in 10 matches
Sweden scored an average of 1.25 goals per game this season and conceded 1.88 goals
They had 0 clean sheets and both teams scored in 5 matches
At AT&T Stadium, an average of 4.0 goals were scored in the previous 3 matches
In 2 out of 3 matches at the stadium, both teams scored, and in 2 out of 3 matches, over 2.5 goals were scored
Head-to-Head
No historical head-to-head data is available for this fixture
Key Players
For Japan, Ayase Ueda (2 goals, 1 assist, avg rating 8.13) and Daichi Kamada (2 goals, 0 assists, avg rating 7.4) are important offensive players
Keito Nakamura (1 goal, 1 assist, avg rating 7.6) also contributes to the goal threat
For Sweden, Alexander Isak (1 goal, 3 assists, avg rating 8.02) and Viktor Gyökeres (1 goal, 1 assist, avg rating 7.94) are key figures
Yasin Ayari (2 goals, 0 assists, avg rating 7.4) is another important midfielder
Goalkeepers
Japan's goalkeeper Zion Suzuki played in 2 games this season
The Japan team recorded 13 clean sheets
Sweden's goalkeeper Jacob Widell Zetterström is listed in the starting lineup
The Sweden team has recorded 0 clean sheets this season
Influences
The pitch surface at AT&T Stadium is artificial turf
Japan has a record of 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses with 2:2 goals on artificial turf
Sweden has a record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss with 1:5 goals on artificial turf
The AT&T Stadium shows a high goal rate, with an average of 4.0 goals per game
In 67% of the matches at the stadium, both teams score, and in 67% over 2.5 goals are scored