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Japan – Sweden1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Japan
1.48
Total xG
2.57
Sweden
1.09
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Japan | Sweden |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.67 | |
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.64 | +0.64 |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.55 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.25 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 32 vs 19, 13 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 19 vs 32, 13 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Japan has a significantly stronger season record with an average of 3.38 goals scored and only 0.19 goals conceded per game
- The mathematical analysis sees Japan as favorites with a home win probability of 45%
- Japan's current form, with 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 games, is more convincing than Sweden's
Risks
- Japan's active starting players contribute critically only 11% to the total goal production
- Japan's record on artificial turf at the stadium is modest with 0 wins and 1 draw, scoring 2:2 goals on this surface
- Sweden recently showed an improved average goal rate of 2.4 goals, compared to 1.8 season goals
All probabilities
Result
Japan45%
Draw29%
Sweden26%
Double chance
Japan or draw74%
Sweden or draw55%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Japan: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Sweden with Isak Hien: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Sweden: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Japan: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Japan with Tsuyoshi Watanabe : 1.7 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Japan 3-4-2-1 · Sweden 3-4-3
Japan
- 1 Z. Suzuki
- 20 A. Seko
- 4 K. Itakura
- 21 H. Ito
- 2 Y. Sugawara
- 7 A. Tanaka
- 15 D. Kamada
- 13 K. Nakamura
- 10 R. Doan
- 11 D. Maeda
- 18 A. Ueda
Sweden
- 1 J. Widell Zetterström
- 2 G. Lagerbielke
- 4 I. Hien
- 5 G. Gudmundsson
- 21 A. Bernhardsson
- 3 V. Nilsson Lindelöf
- 18 Y. Ayari
- 24 E. Stroud
- 11 A. Elanga
- 17 V. Gyökeres
- 9 A. Isak
Substitutes
- 6 S. Machino
- 17 Y. Suzuki
- 24 K. Sano
- 22 T. Tomiyasu
- 25 J. Suzuki
- 16 T. Watanabe
- 14 J. Ito
- 19 K. Ogawa
- 26 K. Shiogai
- 23 T. Hayakawa
- 5 Y. Nagatomo
- 9 K. Goto
- 12 K. Osako
- 3 S. Taniguchi
- 19 M. Svanberg
- 20 E. Smith
- 8 D. Svensson
- 15 C. Starfelt
- 14 H. Ekdal
- 12 V. Johansson
- 7 L. Bergvall
- 13 K. Sema
- 25 G. Nilsson
- 10 B. Nygren
- 26 T. Ali
- 23 K. Nordfeldt
- 16 J. Karlström
- 22 B. Zeneli
- 6 H. Johansson
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