World Cup

Egypt - Iran

06/27/2026, 03:00 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Egypt
1.1
Total xG
2.1
Iran
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

12%

0:1

11%

2:1

7%
What influences the xG?
EGYIRA

Egypt

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.30
Standings disadvantage (pos 35 vs 21, 14 places gap)
-0.18
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.09
Full strength squad available

Iran

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.15
Standings advantage (pos 21 vs 35, 14 places gap)
+0.07
Attack strength (1.2x league average)
-0.05
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Iran with Mohammad Mohebi: 2.4 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 2
    Iran: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Egypt: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Iran: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Egypt with Hamdy Fathy: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

33%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Limited Goal Threat: Egypt only has 20% of its goal production available
  • Offensive Form: Iran is currently scoring more frequently (2.8 goals) than their season average (2.4 goals)
  • Balanced Prediction: The mathematical analysis forecasts a very close match with a home win probability of 35% and an away win probability of 31%
Risk Factors
  • Egypt averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 matches, indicating less directness
  • Iran averaged 2.3 shots on target in their last 5 matches, suggesting few attempts on goal
Overview

Egypt (1st place, 4 points) meets Iran (2nd place, 2 points) at Lumen Field in a World Cup match on June 27, 2026, 5:00 AM

Egypt leads the table with 4 points, while Iran follows in 2nd place with 2 points

Form

Egypt's form across all competitions is "DWLDW" (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches

Their last result was a win

Iran's form is "LWWDD" with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches

Their last two results were draws

Statistics

Egypt scored an average of 2.0 goals per game this season and conceded 0.2 goals

They kept 8 clean sheets

Iran scored an average of 2.19 goals per game and conceded 0.75 goals, with 9 clean sheets

On artificial turf, Egypt has a record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses with 4:2 goals

Iran recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses with 2:2 goals on this surface

The Lumen Field averages 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches, and 2 of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

No head-to-head data for the teams is available in the dataset

Key Players

For Egypt, Mohamed Salah is a key player with 1 goal and 2 assists in 2 season appearances and an average rating of 7.66, contributing 1 goal and 3 assists in his last 5 matches

Mostafa Mohamed Zaki Abdelraouf scored 1 goal and 1 assist in 2 appearances (avg 7.39 rating) and recently recorded 3 goals and 1 assist in 5 matches

Emam Ashour scored 1 goal in 2 season appearances (avg 7.22 rating) and recently showed 1 goal in 5 matches

For Iran, Ramin Rezaeian is notable with 1 goal and 1 assist in 2 season appearances and an avg 7.55 rating, with 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 3 matches

Mohammad Mohebi contributed 1 goal in 2 season appearances (avg 6.87 rating) and recently scored 2 goals and 1 assist in 4 matches

Mehdi Taremi has an avg 6.75 rating in 2 season appearances and recently tallied 3 goals and 1 assist in 4 matches

Goalkeepers

Oufa Shobeir, Egypt's goalkeeper, has a season average rating of 7.45

His team has achieved 8 clean sheets this season

Alireza Beiranvand, Iran's goalkeeper, has a season average rating of 8.23

His team has achieved 9 clean sheets this season

Influences

The artificial turf at Lumen Field has been advantageous for Egypt in 2 matches, with 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses (4:2 goals)

Iran has recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses (2:2 goals) in 2 matches on artificial turf

The Lumen Field averages 3.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 60% of matches

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