Match report →
Egypt – Iran1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Egypt
1.09
Total xG
2.10
Iran
1.01
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Egypt | Iran |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.30 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.23 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 35 vs 21, 14 places gap) | −0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 21 vs 35, 14 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Attack strength (1.2x league average) | −0.05 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Limited Goal Threat: Egypt only has 20% of its goal production available
- Offensive Form: Iran is currently scoring more frequently (2.8 goals) than their season average (2.4 goals)
- Balanced Prediction: The mathematical analysis forecasts a very close match with a home win probability of 35% and an away win probability of 31%
Risks
- Egypt averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 matches, indicating less directness
- Iran averaged 2.3 shots on target in their last 5 matches, suggesting few attempts on goal
All probabilities
Result
Egypt35%
Draw33%
Iran31%
Double chance
Egypt or draw69%
Iran or draw65%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.564%
Under 1.536%
Over 2.535%
Under 2.565%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
1:0
12%
0:1
11%
2:1
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Iran with Mohammad Mohebi: 2.4 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Iran: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Egypt: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Iran: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Egypt with Hamdy Fathy: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Egypt 4-2-3-1 · Iran 5-4-1
Egypt
- 23 M. Shobeir
- 3 M. Hany Eldemerdash
- 5 R. Rabia
- 6 M. Abdelmonem
- 13 A. Aboel Fettoh
- 17 M. Lasheen
- 21 M. Saber
- 8 E. Ashour
- 10 M. Salah
- 7 M. Hassan
- 11 M. Zaki Abdelraouf
Iran
- 1 A. Safar Beiranvand
- 23 R. Rezaeian
- 13 M. Kanani Zadegan
- 4 S. Khalilzadeh
- 19 A. Nemati
- 5 M. Mohammadi
- 14 S. Ghoddos
- 21 M. Ghorbani
- 6 S. Ezatolahi Afagh
- 8 M. Mohebi
- 9 M. Taremi
Substitutes
- 12 H. Hassan
- 22 O. Marmoush
- 20 I. Adel
- 18 N. Emad
- 24 T. Alaa
- 16 A. Soliman
- 26 M. Alaa
- 19 M. Attia
- 1 M. El Shenawy
- 25 A. Sayed
- 2 Y. Ibrahim El Hanafi
- 15 K. Ramadan Seif El Din
- 9 H. Abdel Karim
- 10 M. Ghaedi
- 16 M. Torabi
- 17 A. Yousefi
- 3 E. Hajsafi
- 7 A. Jahanbakhsh
- 15 R. Cheshmi
- 20 S. Moghanlou
- 22 S. Hosseini
- 18 A. Hosseinzadeh
- 12 P. Niazmand
- 2 S. Hardani
- 26 A. Razzaghinia
- 11 A. Alipour
- 25 D. Iri
- 24 D. Eckert Ayensa
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →