World Cup

Algeria - Austria

06/28/2026, 02:00 AM

3 : 3
Expected Goals
Algeria
1.1
Total xG
2.3
Austria
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

11%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
ALGAUS

Algeria

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.34
Standings disadvantage (pos 38 vs 22, 16 places gap)
-0.19
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.08
Full strength squad available

Austria

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.37
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match)
+0.18
Standings advantage (pos 22 vs 38, 16 places gap)
+0.08
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Algeria with Zineddine Belaid: 2.4 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 2
    Austria with David Alaba: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    Algeria: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 4
    Austria: first goal in 4 of 5 games (80%)

  • 5
    Algeria: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

32%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Algeria has only 8% of its seasonal goal production available
  • Austria shows strong form with 4 wins from 5 games and a season average of only 0.5 goals conceded
  • The mathematical analysis sees Austria slightly favored with a 38% win probability and a 70% chance of a win or draw
Risk Factors
  • Algeria recorded an average of only 2.5 shots on target in the last 5 games
  • Austria had an average of 3.4 shots on target in the last 5 games
  • Arrowhead Stadium recorded an average of only 2.3 goals per game and 33% both teams to score in 3 matches
Overview

Algeria (3rd place, 3 points) will face Austria (2nd place, 3 points) at Arrowhead Stadium in the World Cup. The match is scheduled for June 28, 2026, 4:00 AM. Both teams are fighting for a spot in the next round in this crucial game.

Form

Algeria's form in the last 5 games is DWWLW. This corresponds to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Algeria won their last match 2-1 against Jordan, following a 0-3 loss against Argentina. Austria's current form is WWWWL, meaning 4 wins and 1 loss. Austria recently lost 0-2 against Argentina, after 4 consecutive wins.

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Algeria scored an average of 2.4 goals per game and conceded 0.8 goals per game this season. The team kept 3 clean sheets and had both teams scoring in 7 games. In home games, Algeria averaged 2.33 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded. Austria is strong offensively with an average of 2.75 goals per game and an impressive defensive record of only 0.5 goals conceded per game. The team recorded 4 clean sheets and saw both teams score in 3 games. Away from home, Austria averaged 2.67 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded. Arrowhead Stadium has seen an average of 2.33 total goals per match across 3 games. In 1 out of 3 games, both teams scored, and in 2 out of 3 games, over 2.5 goals were scored.

Head-to-Head

The provided dataset does not list any previous head-to-head matches between Algeria and Austria.

Key Players

For Algeria, Amine Gouiri is an important offensive player with 1 season goal and 2 goals in the last 5 games, holding an average season rating of 6.92. Ramy Bensebaini, a defender, is in rising form with 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 appearances and a season rating of 7.10. Riyad Mahrez contributed 1 assist this season and has an average season rating of 6.8. For Austria, Romano Schmid is a key midfielder with 1 season goal and an average season rating of 7.12. Marko Arnautovic scored 1 season goal with a rating of 6.76. Xaver Schlager, also in midfield, has 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games with a season rating of 6.74.

Goalkeepers

For Algeria, Oussama Benbout is slated to start as goalkeeper. Algeria has recorded 3 clean sheets this season. Austria's starting goalkeeper is Alexander Schlager, whose team has kept 4 clean sheets this season.

Influences

The match will take place at Arrowhead Stadium on grass. This stadium has seen an average of 2.3 goals per match across 3 games. Algeria scored an average of 2.33 goals and conceded 1.0 goal in home games. Austria scored an average of 2.67 goals and conceded 0.67 goals in away games.

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