World Cup

Czech Republic - Mexico

06/25/2026, 01:00 AM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
Czech Republic
1.3
Total xG
2.6
Mexico
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
CRMEX

Czech Republic

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.57
Standings disadvantage (pos 39 vs 14, 25 places gap)
-0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.03
Full strength squad available

Mexico

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.15
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 14 vs 39, 25 places gap)
+0.09
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.01
Attack strength (1.21x league average)
-0.01
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.38
+0.38
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Mexico: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Czech Republic with Robin Hranac: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Czech Republic: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Czech Republic: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Mexico with Johan VĂĄsquez: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

30%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Critical weakening of the Czech attack with only 9% of usual goal production in the squad
  • Mexico is in top form with five consecutive wins in recent matches
  • The Mexican defense is very strong with an average of 0.25 goals conceded per season
Risk Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a balanced outcome with 35% for a home win, 30% for a draw, and 35% for an away win
  • Limited historical head-to-head data restricts the historical assessment between both teams
Overview

Czech Republic (3rd place, 1 point) faces Mexico (1st place, 6 points) at Estadio Banorte

This World Cup match takes place on June 25, 2026, 3:00 AM

For Czech Republic, this is a crucial group stage match to maintain chances of advancing

Mexico is in a more comfortable position to reach the next round

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Czech Republic shows a form of DDWLD in their last five matches

This includes 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss

Their last game ended in a 1-1 draw against South Africa

Mexico is in excellent condition with a form of WWWWW

They have won all of their last five matches, including a 1-0 against Korea Republic

Statistics

Czech Republic scored an average of 2.2 goals per game and conceded 1.2 goals per game this season

At home, they average 2.33 goals scored and 0.83 goals conceded

Mexico is offensively strong with an average of 1.88 goals per game and defensively outstanding with only 0.25 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Mexico has averaged 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 goals conceded this season (in one game)

Czech Republic kept 5 clean sheets in 10 games, Mexico in 6 of 8 games

At Estadio Banorte, the average total goals in the last 5 matches was 2.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches, and 2 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

No previous head-to-head meetings between these two teams were found in the provided data

Key Players

For Czech Republic, Ladislav Krejci (Defender) has a season rating of 7.37 and scored 1 goal in the last 5 games

Michal SadĂ­lek (Midfielder) achieved a season rating of 7.03 and contributed 1 goal in the last 5 matches

VladimĂ­r Coufal (Defender) has a season rating of 7.09 and assisted 1 goal in the last 5 games

For Mexico, Juliån Quiñones (Attacker) shines with a season rating of 7.73 and 4 goals in the last 5 games

Roberto Alvarado (Attacker) achieved a season rating of 7.35 and provided 1 assist in the last 5 matches

Luis Romo (Defender) has a season rating of 7.58 and was involved in 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Matej Kovar, goalkeeper for Czech Republic, recorded 5 clean sheets this season

He has a season rating of 6.59 and a last 5 rating of 6.97, showing a rising form trend

Mexico's goalkeeper RaĂșl Rangel achieved 6 clean sheets this season

His season rating is 7.15, the last 5 rating is 6.80, indicating a declining form trend

Influences

The grass pitch at Estadio Banorte is the natural surface for this match

Historical data at Estadio Banorte shows an average of 2.2 goals per game

In 40% of matches, both teams scored, and 40% ended with over 2.5 goals

Mexico demonstrates strong away defense with 0.0 goals conceded in their only away game this season

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