World Cup
Czech Republic - Mexico
06/25/2026, 01:00 AM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.6
1.3
1:1
14%1:2
8%2:1
8%0:2
6%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
Czech Republic
Mexico
League
The Lab
- 1Mexico: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- 2Czech Republic with Robin Hranac: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 3Czech Republic: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4Czech Republic: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 5Mexico with Johan VĂĄsquez: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
35%
Draw
30%
Away Win
35%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
65%
Away or Draw
65%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Critical weakening of the Czech attack with only 9% of usual goal production in the squad
- Mexico is in top form with five consecutive wins in recent matches
- The Mexican defense is very strong with an average of 0.25 goals conceded per season
Risk Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a balanced outcome with 35% for a home win, 30% for a draw, and 35% for an away win
- Limited historical head-to-head data restricts the historical assessment between both teams
Overview
Czech Republic (3rd place, 1 point) faces Mexico (1st place, 6 points) at Estadio Banorte
This World Cup match takes place on June 25, 2026, 3:00 AM
For Czech Republic, this is a crucial group stage match to maintain chances of advancing
Mexico is in a more comfortable position to reach the next round
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Czech Republic shows a form of DDWLD in their last five matches
This includes 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss
Their last game ended in a 1-1 draw against South Africa
Mexico is in excellent condition with a form of WWWWW
They have won all of their last five matches, including a 1-0 against Korea Republic
Statistics
Czech Republic scored an average of 2.2 goals per game and conceded 1.2 goals per game this season
At home, they average 2.33 goals scored and 0.83 goals conceded
Mexico is offensively strong with an average of 1.88 goals per game and defensively outstanding with only 0.25 goals conceded per game
Away from home, Mexico has averaged 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 goals conceded this season (in one game)
Czech Republic kept 5 clean sheets in 10 games, Mexico in 6 of 8 games
At Estadio Banorte, the average total goals in the last 5 matches was 2.2 goals per game
Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches, and 2 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
No previous head-to-head meetings between these two teams were found in the provided data
Key Players
For Czech Republic, Ladislav Krejci (Defender) has a season rating of 7.37 and scored 1 goal in the last 5 games
Michal SadĂlek (Midfielder) achieved a season rating of 7.03 and contributed 1 goal in the last 5 matches
VladimĂr Coufal (Defender) has a season rating of 7.09 and assisted 1 goal in the last 5 games
For Mexico, Juliån Quiñones (Attacker) shines with a season rating of 7.73 and 4 goals in the last 5 games
Roberto Alvarado (Attacker) achieved a season rating of 7.35 and provided 1 assist in the last 5 matches
Luis Romo (Defender) has a season rating of 7.58 and was involved in 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Matej Kovar, goalkeeper for Czech Republic, recorded 5 clean sheets this season
He has a season rating of 6.59 and a last 5 rating of 6.97, showing a rising form trend
Mexico's goalkeeper RaĂșl Rangel achieved 6 clean sheets this season
His season rating is 7.15, the last 5 rating is 6.80, indicating a declining form trend
Influences
The grass pitch at Estadio Banorte is the natural surface for this match
Historical data at Estadio Banorte shows an average of 2.2 goals per game
In 40% of matches, both teams scored, and 40% ended with over 2.5 goals
Mexico demonstrates strong away defense with 0.0 goals conceded in their only away game this season