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Czech Republic – Mexico0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Czech Republic
1.28
Total xG
2.57
Mexico
1.28
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Czech Republic | Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.57 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.38 | +0.38 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 39 vs 14, 25 places gap) | −0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 14 vs 39, 25 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.01 | |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | −0.01 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Critical weakening of the Czech attack with only 9% of usual goal production in the squad
- Mexico is in top form with five consecutive wins in recent matches
- The Mexican defense is very strong with an average of 0.25 goals conceded per season
Risks
- The mathematical analysis predicts a balanced outcome with 35% for a home win, 30% for a draw, and 35% for an away win
- Limited historical head-to-head data restricts the historical assessment between both teams
All probabilities
Result
Czech Republic35%
Draw30%
Mexico35%
Double chance
Czech Republic or draw65%
Mexico or draw65%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Mexico: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- Czech Republic with Robin Hranac: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Czech Republic: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Czech Republic: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Mexico with Johan Vásquez: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Czech Republic 3-4-2-1 · Mexico 4-3-3
Czech Republic
- 1 M. Kovář
- 3 T. Holeš
- 4 R. Hranáč
- 7 L. Krejčí
- 5 V. Coufal
- 12 L. Červ
- 18 M. Sadílek
- 21 D. Douděra
- 15 P. Šulc
- 26 D. Višinský
- 9 A. Hložek
Mexico
- 1 J. Rangel Aguilar
- 2 J. Sánchez Ramos
- 3 C. Montes Castro
- 15 I. Reyes Romero
- 20 M. Chávez García
- 19 G. Mora Zambrano
- 4 E. Álvarez Velázquez
- 7 L. Romo Barrón
- 25 R. Alvarado Hernández
- 22 G. Martínez Ayala
- 16 J. Quiñones Quiñones
Substitutes
- 10 P. Schick
- 22 T. Souček
- 16 J. Staněk
- 19 T. Chorý
- 2 D. Zima
- 6 ?. Chaloupek
- 13 M. Chytil
- 17 L. Provod
- 23 L. Horníček
- 20 J. Zelený
- 11 J. Kuchta
- 24 A. Sojka
- 25 H. Sochůrek
- 8 V. Darida
- 9 R. Jiménez Rodríguez
- 21 C. Huerta Valera
- 17 O. Pineda Alvarado
- 11 S. Giménez
- 5 J. Vásquez Ibarra
- 8 Á. Fidalgo Fernández
- 18 O. Vaargas
- 6 É. Lira Méndez
- 14 A. González Alba
- 23 J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
- 26 B. Gutierrez
- 12 C. Acevedo López
- 13 F. Ochoa Magaña
- 10 E. Vega Rojas
- 24 L. Chávez Magallón
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