World Cup

Morocco - Haiti

06/24/2026, 10:00 PM

4 : 2
Expected Goals
Morocco
2.6
Total xG
3.2
Haiti
0.6
Most Likely Scores

2:0

14%

3:0

12%

2:1

8%

4:0

8%

1:1

7%
What influences the xG?
MORHAI

Morocco

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-1.16
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.23
Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 87, 76 places gap)
+0.17
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15

Haiti

Standings disadvantage (pos 87 vs 11, 76 places gap)
-0.12
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Morocco: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Morocco with Achraf Hakimi: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    Morocco: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

79%

Draw

15%

Away Win

6%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

62%

Under 2.5

38%

Over 3.5

40%

Under 3.5

60%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

94%

Away or Draw

21%

No Draw

85%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a home win for Morocco with a 79% probability
  • Form and Standings: Morocco is unbeaten in 5 games and in 2nd place, while Haiti has 3 consecutive losses and is last
  • Offensive and Defensive Strength: Morocco is highly dominant with an average of 2.75 goals scored and 0.25 goals conceded per season, Haiti is less effective with 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 goals conceded
Risk Factors
  • Haiti averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating limited offensive penetration
  • Haiti is experiencing a negative form trend with three consecutive losses in recent matches
  • The limited data regarding previous head-to-head matches could influence the prediction
Overview

Morocco (2nd place, 4 points) faces Haiti (4th place, 0 points) at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium

A crucial World Cup group stage match on June 24, 2026, 11:00 PM

Morocco aims to solidify its strong position in the standings

Form

Morocco is in excellent form, unbeaten in their last 5 games

The team recorded 3 wins and 2 draws recently, including a 1-0 away win against Scotland

Their form trend is WWDDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Haiti, in contrast, has only achieved 1 win and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, suffering 3 losses

Their last three games ended in defeat, indicating a negative form trend

The form trend is DWLLL

Statistics

Morocco displays an impressive seasonal offense with an average of 2.75 goals per game

The defense is very stable with only 0.25 goals conceded per game and 6 clean sheets

In home games, Morocco averages 2.5 goals scored and 0.25 goals conceded

Haiti averages 2.0 goals scored per game but concedes 1.3 goals

In away matches, Haiti concedes an average of 1.0 goal

The Mercedes-Benz Stadium records an average of 2.6 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games, and 3 out of 5 games had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There are no previous head-to-head matches between Morocco and Haiti in the provided dataset

Key Players

For Morocco, midfielder Ismael Saibari is a key player with 2 season goals and 4 goals in the last 5 games

Attacker Brahim Díaz contributed 2 assists this season and 2 goals with 2 assists in the last 5 matches

Defender Achraf Hakimi showed one assist in his last 5 games and an average rating of 7.06

For Haiti, Lenny Joseph in attack is an important player with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 matches

Striker Wilson Isidor scored 1 goal in his last 5 appearances

Defender Hannes Delcroix showed an average rating of 6.99 in his last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Morocco's goalkeeper Yassine Bounou helped his team to 6 clean sheets this season

Haiti's goalkeeper Johny Placide helped his team to 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match takes place at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium on artificial turf

Morocco has a positive record on artificial turf with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses (4:1 goals)

Haiti also has a positive record on artificial turf with 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss (8:1 goals)

The stadium averages 2.6 goals per game and has a high BTTS rate of 60%

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