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Morocco – Haiti4 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Morocco
2.58
Total xG
3.20
Haiti
0.62
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Morocco | Haiti |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −1.16 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 87, 76 places gap) | +0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 87 vs 11, 76 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.04 |
Key factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a home win for Morocco with a 79% probability
- Form and Standings: Morocco is unbeaten in 5 games and in 2nd place, while Haiti has 3 consecutive losses and is last
- Offensive and Defensive Strength: Morocco is highly dominant with an average of 2.75 goals scored and 0.25 goals conceded per season, Haiti is less effective with 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 goals conceded
Risks
- Haiti averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating limited offensive penetration
- Haiti is experiencing a negative form trend with three consecutive losses in recent matches
- The limited data regarding previous head-to-head matches could influence the prediction
All probabilities
Result
Morocco79%
Draw15%
Haiti6%
Double chance
Morocco or draw94%
Haiti or draw21%
No draw85%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
2:0
14%
3:0
12%
2:1
8%
4:0
8%
1:1
7%
4:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Morocco: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- Morocco with Achraf Hakimi: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Morocco: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Morocco 4-2-3-1 · Haiti 4-4-1-1
Morocco
- 1 Y. Bounou
- 2 A. Hakimi Mouh
- 25 R. Halhal
- 18 C. Riad
- 26 A. Salah-Eddine
- 24 N. El Aynaoui
- 4 S. Amrabat
- 10 B. Abdelkader Diaz
- 11 I. Saibari Ben El Basra
- 23 B. El Khannous
- 20 A. El Kaabi
Haiti
- 1 J. Placide
- 22 J. Duverne
- 4 R. Ade
- 5 H. Delcroix
- 8 M. Expérience
- 21 J. Casimir
- 17 D. Jean Jacques
- 10 J. Bellegarde
- 15 R. Providence
- 18 W. Isidor
- 16 L. Joseph
Substitutes
- 14 I. Diop
- 21 A. Amaimouni-Echghouyab
- 17 M. Sbai
- 8 A. Ounahi
- 6 A. Bouaddi
- 15 S. El Mourabet
- 3 N. Mazraoui
- 7 C. Talbi
- 13 Z. El Ouahdi
- 16 G. Yassine
- 5 M. Saadane
- 9 S. Rahimi
- 19 Y. Belammari
- 12 M. Mohand Mohamedi
- 22 A. Tagnaouti
- 2 C. Arcus
- 20 F. Pierrot
- 7 D. Etienne Jr.
- 11 L. Deedson
- 24 W. Paugain
- 23 J. Duverger
- 3 K. Thermoncy
- 19 Y. Fortune
- 9 D. Nazon
- 6 C. Sainte
- 12 A. Pierre
- 13 M. Lacroix
- 14 G. Metusala
- 26 W. Pierre
- 25 D. Simon
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