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Cape Verde Islands – Saudi Arabia0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Cape Verde Islands
1.20
Total xG
2.40
Saudi Arabia
1.20
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cape Verde Islands | Saudi Arabia |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 70 vs 59, 11 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 59 vs 70, 11 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Cape Verde Islands has only 13% of its seasonal goal production available
- The artificial turf pitch could be decisive, Cape Verde Islands is unbeaten and without conceding a goal on this surface, while Saudi Arabia suffered a 0:4 loss there
- The mathematical analysis predicts an extremely balanced match with a home win, a draw, or an away win each having approximately 35% probability
Risks
- Saudi Arabia averaged only 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
- NRG Stadium shows a high goal average of 5.3 goals per game, which contrasts with the strong defensive statistics of both teams
All probabilities
Result
Cape Verde Islands34%
Draw31%
Saudi Arabia34%
Double chance
Cape Verde Islands or draw66%
Saudi Arabia or draw66%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
0:1
9%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cape Verde Islands: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)
- Saudi Arabia with Firas Al-Buraikan: 0.3 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Saudi Arabia: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Saudi Arabia: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Cape Verde Islands 4-1-4-1 · Saudi Arabia 4-4-2
Cape Verde Islands
- 1 J. Évora Dias
- 24 W. Cardoso Pina
- 4 R. Lopes
- 3 E. Monteiro Sanches Borges
- 8 J. Moreira Fernandes
- 6 K. Gonçalves Pereira de Pina
- 20 R. Mendes da Graça
- 14 D. Duarte
- 10 J. Monteiro Alvarenga
- 17 W. Semedo Johnson
- 19 D. Rocha Livramento do Rosario
Saudi Arabia
- 21 M. Al Owais
- 12 S. Abdul Hamid
- 4 A. Al Amri
- 5 H. Al Tambakti
- 13 N. Boushal
- 20 S. Madash
- 15 A. Alkhaibari
- 6 N. Al Dawsari
- 10 S. Al Dawsari
- 23 M. Kanno
- 9 F. Albirakan
Substitutes
- 5 L. Costa
- 26 H. Oliveira Alves Varela
- 25 K. Pires
- 21 N. da Costa Jóia
- 15 L. Duarte
- 7 J. Borges Cabral
- 22 S. Moreira
- 23 C. Dos Santos
- 11 G. Mendes Rodrigues
- 12 M. Salomão Brazão Rosa
- 16 J. Semedo Monteiro
- 9 G. Benchimol Tavares
- 2 I. dos Santos Tavares
- 24 Moteb Al-Harbi
- 3 A. Lajami
- 19 A. Al Hamdan
- 11 S. Al Shehri
- 2 A. Majrashi
- 16 Z. Aljohani
- 17 K. Al Ghannam
- 1 N. Alaqidi
- 8 A. Yahya
- 26 M. Al Shamat
- 25 J. Abdullatif Ahm
- 7 M. Aljuwayr
- 14 H. Kadesh
- 18 A. Hejji
- 22 A. Al Kassar
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