Match report →
Paraguay – Australia0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Paraguay
0.99
Total xG
1.91
Australia
0.92
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Paraguay | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.35 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 37 vs 25, 12 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 25 vs 37, 12 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Mathematical model predicts a very close match with a high probability for a draw (35%) or a home win (34%)
- Critical: For both teams, only a small portion of the potential goal production (Paraguay 14%, Australia 5%) from key players is available
- Paraguay's positive form and average of 5.6 shots on target contrast with Australia's more stable but lower offensive output (3.0 shots on target)
Risks
- Paraguay scores an average of only 0.75 goals per home game
- Australia recorded an average of only 3.0 shots on target in the last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Paraguay34%
Draw35%
Australia30%
Double chance
Paraguay or draw70%
Australia or draw66%
No draw65%
Goals
Over 1.559%
Under 1.541%
Over 2.530%
Under 2.570%
Over 3.513%
Under 3.587%
Both teams score
Yes40%
No60%
Most likely scores
0:0
17%
1:1
15%
1:0
13%
0:1
12%
2:0
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Australia with Alessandro Circati: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Paraguay: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- Paraguay: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Paraguay with Omar Alderete: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
Lineups
Paraguay 5-3-2 · Australia 3-4-2-1
Paraguay
- 12 O. Gill
- 4 J. Cáceres
- 2 V. Velázquez Ramos
- 15 G. Gómez Portillo
- 3 O. Alderete Fernández
- 26 A. Maidana Mendieta
- 8 D. Gómez Amarilla
- 14 A. Cubas
- 23 M. Galarza Fonda
- 21 G. Ávalos Stumpfs
- 19 J. Enciso
Australia
- 18 P. Beach
- 3 A. Circati
- 19 H. Souttar
- 25 L. Herrington
- 5 J. Bos
- 13 A. O'Neill
- 22 J. Irvine
- 16 A. Behich
- 20 C. Volpato
- 8 C. Metcalfe
- 17 N. Irankunda
Substitutes
- 9 A. Sanabria Ayala
- 24 G. Caballero
- 20 B. Ojeda Rodríguez
- 1 R. Fernández Torres
- 16 D. Bobadilla
- 25 I. Pitta Saldívar
- 5 F. Balbuena González
- 6 J. Alonso Mujica
- 7 R. Sosa
- 17 A. Romero Gamarra
- 18 A. Arce Barrios
- 13 J. Canale Domínguez
- 11 M. Magalhães Prado
- 22 G. Olveira Echeverría
- 1 M. Ryan
- 11 A. Mabil
- 21 C. Burgess
- 10 A. Hrustic
- 9 M. Toure
- 12 P. Izzo
- 15 K. Trewin
- 2 M. Degenek
- 24 P. Junior Okon-Engstler
- 6 J. Geria
- 23 N. Velupillay
- 14 C. Devlin
- 26 T. Yengi
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